Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

The NZDUSD reaches toward the Asian session low and lowest level since November 2023

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:49 am

The NZDUSD has been trending to the downside since last week's high near 0.6080. The low price today reached 0.5872. That is just above a swing area between 0.5851 and 0.58699.Support buyers are leaning against the wing area. There is topside resistance near 0.5936 if the buyers can't stay above the 0.58699 level down to 0.58512. A move below 0.58512 would open the door toward the October low at 0.57723. Find out the details of the technicals driving the NZDUSD pair by watching the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZ dollar slips ahead of New Zealand inflation

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:42 am

The New Zealand dollar is down for a third straight day and has plunged 3.4% in less than a week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5881, down 0.36%. New Zealand inflation expected to fall to 4.3% New Zealand’s inflation rate has been dropping and the trend is expected to continue on […]

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. USA, 19:15 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:15 am

At 19:15 (GMT+2), the head of the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed), Jerome Powell, will give a speech. The official can share his vision of the current situation in the American economy against ongoing geopolitical tensions and hint at the regulator’s further actions in the monetary policy. Read more

USDCAD stretches toward 2023 and 2022 highs. Key resistance near 1.3859 area.

Apr 16, 2024 | 07:42 am

The USDCAD is continuing its move to the upside after breaking above a key ceiling area near 1.3623 last week. The price today is stretching toward the next resistance targets near 1.3859. Get above that and the 2023 high price at 1.38989 would be the next focus. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian dollar extends losses as Canada’s inflation rises

Apr 16, 2024 | 07:16 am

The Canadian dollar is down for a fifth straight day and has slipped 1.9% during that time. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3840, up 0.37%. Canada’s inflation rises to 2.9% Canada’s inflation rate for March rose to 2.9% y/y, ticking up from 2.8% in February and above the market forecast of […]

Analysis for GBP/USD on April 16th. The pound should not count on support from Powell

Apr 16, 2024 | 07:11 am

The wave analysis for GBP/USD remains quite complex but may be simplified in the coming weeks. A successful attempt to break the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicates the market's readiness to build a downward wave 3 or C. If this wave indeed continues to develop, the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complicating the wave count will diminish.As I've noted before, wave analysis should be straightforward and understandable to work with. Complexity and lack of clarity have been prevalent in recent months. The pair has been on a sideways trend for a long time and only now has a real chance of forming an impulse wave.In the current situation, my readers can only hope for the formation of wave 3 or C, with targets located below the low of wave 1 or A. Therefore, the pound should decline by at least another 500–600 basis points. The news background favors the US dollar, and after breaking the level of 1.2469 (50.0% Fibonacci), the psychological barrier for sellers has been removed.The dollar continues to benefit from the situation.The GBP/USD exchange rate rose by 20 basis points on Tuesday. This is so minimal that it is not even worth mentioning. 20 points are not even a correction but simply an intraday pullback. Even today's news failed to increase market activity, although some reports could be considered important for the British economy. For example, the unemployment rate in the UK rose to 4.2%, although the market expected no more than 4%. Wage growth in February was 5.6%, which is in line with market and economic expectations. The number of unemployment claims increased by 11,000, with forecasts ranging from 15,000 to 17,000. None of these reports can be considered primary in terms of significance, so the market did not give preference to any of them.In the second half of the day, two reports were released in the US, which put pressure on the dollar with their weak figures. However, the situation may change in favor of the American currency later today. Jerome Powell will speak in the evening, followed by Andrew Bailey. Undoubtedly, it is possible that neither of them will comment on the latest inflation or wage data and may not even touch on monetary policy. But if they do, Powell is expected to only mention the Fed's reluctance to adopt a softer policy in June. Such statements could boost demand for the dollar as the market becomes even more convinced that the FOMC will not lower rates in June. Although I already see this as clear.The current news background is favorable for the US currency, and the wave count continues to indicate only its growth. A successful attempt to break the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicates the market's readiness to reduce demand for the pair.General conclusions.The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the level of 1.2039 as wave 3 or C begins to form. A successful attempt to break the level of 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates the long-awaited readiness of the market to form a downward wave.On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The downward correctional trend continues to form, with its second wave taking on an extended shape - up to 76.4% of the first wave. A failed attempt to break this level could have led to the beginning of the formation of wave 3 or C.Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play, often leading to changes.If there is no confidence in the market situation, it's better not to enter it.There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Remember protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:57 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3744; (P) 1.3769; (R1) 1.3814; More… USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3176 is in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Decisive break of 100% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3477 at 1.3841 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.3980. On the downside, below 1.3773 minor support will turn intraday […] The post USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USDJPY tumbles but quickly rebounds

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:50 am

The USDJPY hit a downside air pocket after reaching another new high going back to 1990 at 154.76. That is getting close to what people think is a level that the Bank of Japan might look to intervene at 155.00.Anyway the market quickly fell to a low of 153.896 but has since bounced back up toward 154.40.Technically, the price low found support buyers near the 38.2% retracement of the last run to the upside (from the low price on Friday to the high price today). That 38.2% retracement came at 153.929.In the morning kickstart video, I commented that with the USDJPY trading at the highest level since 1990, the sellers have to prove that they can take control. When benchmark target would be to get below the 38.2% -50% retracement of the last trend moved to the upside (see yellow area on the chart above). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Analysis for EUR/USD on April 16th. The southern trend has been put on pause for correction

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:45 am

The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. At the moment, we observe the construction of the presumed wave 3 in 3 or c of the downward trend section. If this is indeed the case, then the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this section completed its construction around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend section should end lower.The market continues to slowly reduce demand for the euro, although the news background fully supports the US dollar. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0955 mark, which equates to 61.8% according to Fibonacci, indicated the completion of the construction of wave 2 in 3 or c. Therefore, there is potential for a decrease in the pair, and it is significant.Is there a probability of a different wave analysis? There is always one. However, if, since October 3 of last year, we have observed a new upward trend section, then the last downward wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward section is possible only with a significant complication of the wave analysis.Under the pressure of statistics, sellers retreat.The EUR/USD pair rate increased by 25 basis points on Tuesday. The corrective wave could have started yesterday, but the US retail trade report turned out to be stronger than market expectations, which prompted new purchases of the US dollar. Today, several reports immediately supported the euro. Let's consider them in more detail. In Europe today, economic expectation indices from ZEW were released. In the European Union, the index rose to 43.9 points, and in Germany - to 42.9 points, which is significantly above market expectations. I do not consider these reports important, and today, the market largely ignored them as demand for the euro decreased in the first half of the day. However, closer to the American session, demand for the dollar had already begun to decline.The number of building permits issued in the US turned out to be below market expectations. Later, there will be a report on industrial production, but with the already published four reports, it is quite enough for the dollar to depreciate slightly today. I want to immediately note that only "slightly," as 25 basis points cannot yet be considered even a wave on a smaller scale. The market sentiment remains "bearish." The fact that the ECB is ready to start easing monetary policy in June, unlike the Fed, will continue to push the pair down. Therefore, this week, we may see a pause in the decline of the pair, but this will only be a pause, not the end of the downward wave set. I still expect a more significant decline in the EUR/USD pair.General conclusions.Based on the analysis of the EUR/USD, the construction of a downward wave set continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are completed, so in the near future, I expect the continuation of the construction of an impulse downward wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decrease in the pair. I continue to consider sales with targets near the calculated mark of 1.0463, as the news background remains on the side of the dollar. The necessary signal for sale around the 1.0880 mark was formed (an unsuccessful attempt to break through).On the larger wave scale, the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length was more than 61.8% according to Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decrease in the pair below the 4-figure has begun to be implemented.The main principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play with; they often bring changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about Stop Loss protective orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:43 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.34; (P) 153.89; (R1) 154.83; More… USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 154.12 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally. In the bigger […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart your Forex trading for April 16 w/a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:41 am

Kickstart your Forex trading for April 16 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD by watching the above video. What is the bias? What are the risks and targets?. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 16th (US session)

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:33 am

Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 154.59 occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which clearly limited the upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. Considering how the pair have been reacting to US statistics lately, the focus in the second half of the day will likely be on them. Figures on the volume of building permits issued and the number of new foundations laid will be decisive in determining the pair's direction in the second half of the day. Strong indicators, even against the backdrop of record-high interest rates, will once again remind all market participants of the strength of the US economy, leading to further development of the upward trend in the pair. However, significantly weak data can undermine USD/JPY, especially from annual highs where trading is currently taking place. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 154.69 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 155.03 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 155.03, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's rise today will only be possible after strong reports from the US. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.45 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. You can expect growth to the opposite levels of 154.69 and 155.03.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the level of 154.45 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 154.15, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of poor US figures. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.69 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.45 and 154.15.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.Thick green line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.Thick red line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes. And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9101; (P) 0.9126; (R1) 0.9141; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation continues below 0.9151. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9268. In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:31 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2421; (P) 1.2460; (R1) 1.2484; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point and more consolidations could be seen. Recovery should be limited by 1.2577 minor resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2407 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% projection of 1.2892 to […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 16th (US session)

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:28 am

Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the British PoundWe didn't quite reach the price test at 1.2455 in the first half of the day, so there were no suitable entry points formed in the market. The pound was quickly bought back after the decline caused by weak UK labor market data. However, more was needed to continue the upward trend. Everything will now depend on the US reports. In the second half of the day, we await statistics on the volume of building permits issued and the number of new foundations laid. The real estate market is very important for the Fed, so weak indicators may work against the dollar, leading to a recovery of the pound during American trading. Strong data on industrial production growth is a reason for buying the dollar and selling the pound. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2455 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 1.2499 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.2499, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). The rise of the pound today can be expected only after weak data on problems in the US real estate market. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2428 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. You can expect growth at the opposite levels of 1.2455 and 1.2499.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level of 1.2428 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2386, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves only against the backdrop of strong data from the US. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2455 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a downward reversal of the market. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2428 and 1.2386.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.Thick green line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.Thick red line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes. And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GBP/USD for April 16-18, 2024: buy above 1.2405 or 1.2450 (21 SMA - 0/8 Murray)

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:26 am

The British pound printed a low of 1.2405 in the European session, a key level that coincided with the bottom of the bearish trend channel forming since March 15. We believe that the GBP/USD pair could continue to bounce in the next few hours. So, we will look for opportunities to buy above 1.2410 or in case it consolidates around 0/8 Murray above 1.2450.Technically, the British pound is oversold and the eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, but we should expect the British pound to consolidate above the psychological level of 1.25 or above the 21 SMA located at 1.2485. If this scenario occurs, the outlook could be positive for GBP and we could expect a rise towards the 200 EMA located at 1.2623 and finally, to the top of the downtrend channel around 1.2670.On the other hand, if the British pound continues to consolidate above 1.2450 or above -1/8 Murray located at 1.2390, it could be a signal for a trend change. Thus, a technical rebound is likely to occur in the coming days.A sharp break below the downtrend channel could change the outlook for the British pound. Hence, in the short term, GBP/USD could reach 1.2320, 1.2245, and finally, the psychological level of 1.20.Given that the British pound is oversold, we will look for opportunities to buy above the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.2405 -1.2450. Climbing above this area will be seen as a signal to buy.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 16th (US session)

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:21 am

Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the European CurrencyThe price test at 1.0630 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move up from the zero mark, which, along with decent data from the eurozone, allowed for a buy signal for the euro. However, as you can see on the chart, a normal upward correction did not occur. Yes, data from the ZEW Institute, especially for Germany, turned out to be much better than economists' forecasts, but this only allowed the euro to stay afloat, not leading to a pair's growth. In the second half of the day, we await statistics on the volume of building permits issued and the number of new foundations laid. The real estate market and its "weather" are very important for the Fed, so maintaining stability may favor the dollar. Strong data on industrial production growth is a reason for buying the dollar and selling the euro. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0639 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 1.0672. At the point of 1.0672, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. The rise of the euro today can be expected after very poor statistics from the US. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0618 at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. You can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0639 and 1.0672.Sell SignalScenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0618 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0585, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong data from the US. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0639 at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a downward reversal of the market. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0618 and 1.0585.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.Thick green line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.Thick red line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD: Australian dollar remains under pressure

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:17 am

The absence of significant macroeconomic reports from Australia suggests that the Australian dollar will keep trading in sync with the market, primarily reacting to the news from the United States and the dollar's dynamics.The first rate cut by the RBA is projected for November, as inflation is expected to show a slight increase in the first quarter. With the expectations for a Fed rate cut pushed to September, the Aussie is likely to remain under pressure for objective reasons until the fall. One of the main factors affecting domestic inflation remains the labor market. The very low unemployment rate paves the way for high wage growth rates, and improvements are not expected quickly—if unemployment was at 3.7% in February, it is expected to rise to 4.25% by the end of the year. The process of slowing average wage growth is too slow for the RBA to ignore this inflationary factor. Thus, the regulator will not cut rates until it is confident that wage growth has sufficiently slowed. Prices for Australia's key export commodities (iron ore, LNG, and coal) have decreased in recent months, putting pressure on the trade balance, despite higher prices for oil and most industrial metals. A rise in copper and aluminum quotes, supporting commodity currencies, is primarily linked to a surge of interest in artificial intelligence and is not related to the Australian economy. Further uplift in the global industrial cycle and/or additional stimulus in China could help reverse the situation, but at the moment, there is no reason to abandon a bear case scenario. The net short position on AUD decreased by $572 million over the reporting week to -$6.121 billion. A decline in the volume of short positions allowed the price to stay near the long-term moving average, but overall positioning remains bearish. The AUD/USD pair fell in sync with the market, ending its February-March correction. If the price fixes below the support level of 0.6444, the pair is expected to extend losses and head towards the support area of 0.6320/30. In case of a rebound after a week-long decline, the pair will face resistance at 0.6444. A rise above this level seems unlikely. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 16th (analysis of morning deals). The pound was quickly bought back around

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:12 am

In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.2411 and planned to make decisions based on it for market entry. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The decline and the formation of a false breakout there led to a buy signal, resulting in the pair rising by almost 40 points. The technical picture remained unchanged for the second half of the day.To open long positions on GBP/USD:At the moment, the British pound reacted with a drop to news that the unemployment rate in the UK sharply increased; however, buyers took advantage of this and managed to defend the monthly minimum, providing an excellent buying point for the pound. But, as you can see on the chart, the initiative quickly faded, and the pair failed to break out above the resistance at 1.2456, which will be the focus for the second half of the day. Also ahead of us are figures on the volume of building permits issued in the US, the number of new foundations laid, and changes in industrial production. Strong data may lead to another breakdown around 1.2411, where I will act similarly to what I described above. A false breakout around 1.2411 will provide an entry point for buying with the aim of rising to the resistance at 1.2465, which we did not reach in the first half of the day. There are also moving averages located there, playing in favor of sellers. A breakout and a test from top to bottom of this range against the backdrop of weak real estate statistics in the US will strengthen the chance of a GBP/USD recovery, leading to new purchases and allowing it to reach 1.2495. If there is a breakout above this range, we can expect a surge to 1.2539, where I plan to make a profit. In the scenario of a further decline in GBP/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.2411 in the second half of the day, sellers will have a chance for a more significant drop in the pair. In this case, I will look for purchases around 1.2375. A false breakout will be a suitable option for market entry. I plan to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from 1.2340, targeting a correction of 30-35 points within the day.To open short positions on GBP/USD:I believe everyone understands that bears need to assert themselves around the nearest resistance at 1.2465. A false breakout there, along with strong US data, will lead to a good selling point for the pound, continuing the bearish market in anticipation of a decline and a test of support at 1.2411. Please note that the decline from 1.2465 should be quite sharp. If there is no sharp downward movement, the level will most likely be washed out, and the pound will continue to rise. A breakout and a reverse test from bottom to top at 1.2411 will increase pressure on the pair, giving bears an advantage and another entry point for selling with the aim of revisiting 1.2375. The ultimate target will be a minimum of 1.2340, where I will take a profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD rising and the absence of bears at 1.2456 in the second half of the day, bulls will have the opportunity to build a small correction with an upward movement toward the resistance at 1.2495. I will also only consider selling on a false breakout there. If there is no activity there, I suggest opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2539, expecting a pair to rebound down by 30-35 points within the day.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 9, there was a sharp reduction in both long and short positions. Pound buyers left the market faster than sellers, and there are objective reasons for this: first, the high inflationary pressure in the US, which will maintain demand for the dollar, putting serious pressure on risky assets, including the British pound. The second reason is the soft policy of the Bank of England, which has yet to go anywhere. New statements from the regulator's representatives may negatively affect the bullish prospects of the pound, especially after the clear position of the ECB last week, which consisted of lowering rates in the eurozone already in early summer this year. In addition to all this, the Federal Reserve needs to maintain a tough stance, and it is unlikely that we can count on a strong bull market in the GBP/USD pair. According to the latest COT report, long non-commercial positions decreased by 18,352 to 80,000, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 3,190 to 51,748. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,704.Indicator signals:Moving AveragesTrading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pair decline.Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator will act as support around 1.2420.Description of Indicators:• Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.• Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.• Bollinger Bands: Period 20.• Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0608; (P) 1.0636; (R1) 1.0653; More… A temporary low is in place at 1.0601 in EUR/USD with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for April 16-18, 2024: buy above $62,500 (4/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

Apr 16, 2024 | 06:02 am

Bitcoin is trading around 62,500 and around the key 4/8 Murray level, which represents a rebound point for the cryptocurrency. In case BTC manages to consolidate above this area, we can expect a technical rebound to occur and the price could reach 64,884 and 66,737.In case Bitcoin falls below 4/8 Murray, we could look for opportunities to sell with targets at the psychological level of $60,000 and at 3/8 Murray located at 59,376.The eagle indicator reached the oversold zone. Thus, a technical bounce is likely to occur in the next few days and will be seen as an opportunity to buy.The 4/8 Murray zone is a key level. Therefore, we must pay attention to this level and be alert for a rebound in the price above this area. If this happens, the entry signal to buy will be confirmed, with the target at the psychological level of $70,000.On the contrary, a daily close below this 4/8 Murray area could change the outlook in the medium term and Bitcoin could reach the psychological level of $50,000.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins

Apr 16, 2024 | 05:11 am

As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger. Geopolitical risk is still at red hot levels as Isreal War Cabinet meets today to discuss a response to the Iranian attack over the weekend. Meanwhile in the US, the administration is preparing economic sanctions in support. "How far can you push without going too far?" is the tightrope walk that is unwinding. In Europe today there was a dump of data with mixed results. Below is a summary:German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) m/m (EUR): Actual data showed a 0.2% increase, slightly higher than the forecast of 0.1%, and an improvement from the previous -0.1%. This indicates a modest rebound in wholesale prices.UK Claimant Count Change (GBP): The actual change was 10.9K, lower than the forecasted 17.2K but higher than the previous 4.1K. UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP): Actual growth was 5.6%, slightly above the forecast of 5.5% and consistent with the previous 5.6%. This shows stable wage growth over the past three months.UK Unemployment Rate (GBP): The actual unemployment rate was 4.2%, higher than the forecast of 4.0% and the previous 3.9%. Overall, a weakening job picture in the UKItalian Trade Balance (EUR): Italy posted a trade surplus of 6.03 billion euros, surpassing the forecast of 3.44 billion euros and the previous 2.50 billion euros. This significant improvement suggests stronger-than-expected trade performance.Trade Balance (EUR): The actual trade balance was 17.9 billion euros, lower than the forecasted 27.3 billion euros and a decrease from the previous 27.1 billion euros, indicating a weaker trade surplus than expected. German ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR): The sentiment index rose to 42.9, well above the forecast of 35.9 and the previous 31.7, showing increased optimism among financial analysts and institutional investors regarding Germany's economic outlook.EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR): Overall European economic sentiment measured by ZEW increased to 43.9, higher than the forecast of 37.8 and previous 33.5, reflecting an improvement in overall economic confidence.These indicators suggest mixed economic conditions across Europe, with signs of improving sentiment and trade performance in some areas, but issues like rising unemployment in the UK present challenges.In China overnight, they reported stronger GDP at 5.3% vs 4.8% (and up from 5.2% last month). However, Industrial Production (4.5% vs 6.0% est.), and Retail sales were weaker (3.1% vs 5.1% est.). The earnings calendar this morning showed mostly better-than-expected results.Morgan Stanley (MS) Q1 2024 (USD):EPS: $2.02 vs. expectations of $1.66 (BEAT)Revenue: $15.14 billion vs. expectations of $14.41 billion (BEAT)Bank of America Corp (BAC) Q1 2024 (USD):Adj. EPS: $0.83 vs. expectations of $0.77 (BEAT)Revenue: $25.82 billion vs. expectations of $25.46 billion (BEAT)PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) Q1 2024 (USD):EPS: $3.10 vs. expectations of $3.02 (BEAT)Revenue: $5.145 billion vs. expectations of $5.19 billion (MISSED)Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) Q1 2024 (USD):Adj. EPS: $1.29 vs. expectations of $1.19 (BEAT)Revenue: $4.53 billion vs. expectations of $4.39 billion (BEAT)Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q1 2024 (USD):Adj. EPS: $2.71 vs. expectations of $2.64 (BEAT)Revenue: $21.383 billion vs. expectations of $21.4 billion (MISSED)UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Q1 2024 (USD):Adj. EPS: $6.91 vs. expectations of $6.61 (BEAT)Revenue: $99.80 billion vs. expectations of $99.26 billion (BEAT)What earnings are ahead this week? Below is a list of some of the major releases:Tuesday after the close:United Airlines,Interactive Brokers,JB HuntWednesday before the openAbbott,Travelers, U.S. BancorpWednesday after the close:Alcoa,Kinder Morgan,Discover, CSXThursday before the openTSMC (Taiwan semi conductor), Nokia, DH WhartonThursday after the close:Netflix, Intuitive SurgicalFriday before the open:American Express, P&GEuropean Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn recently affirmed that the ECB is on track for a potential interest rate cut in June, provided that there are no inflation setbacks and the economic conditions align with their targets. Rehn emphasized that a decision to cut rates would be contingent on the June assessment confirming that inflation is converging towards the ECB's target. He noted that this outlook assumes there will be no further geopolitical or energy price setbacks that could affect inflation. Additionally, Rehn stated that any future rate decisions would maintain a policy that is sufficiently restrictive to manage inflation effectively, indicating a cautious approach to ensure stability. The forthcoming wages data for Q1, expected next month, will play a crucial role in solidifying this outlook and potentially reinforcing the case for a rate cutToday, several key speeches by Federal Reserve officials will be made as the clock ticks toward the so-called quiet period ahead of the May 1 interest decision on Friday after the close. At 9:00 am, FOMC Member Jefferson will speak, likely addressing current economic conditions or monetary policy.FOMC Member Williams will follow with a speech at 12:30 pm.At 1:00 pm, FOMC Member Barkin is scheduled to speak.Shortly thereafter, at 1:15 pm, Fed Chair Powell will also make remarks.US stocks in premarket trading are higher. US yields are modestly higher after rebounding higher yesterday after better than expected retail sales data. Oil prices are lower to start the US trading day despite the Middle East conflict(s).A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $-0.45 or -0.49% at $84.96. At this time yesterday, the price was at $84.95Gold is trading down $-9.30 or -0.39% at $2372.82. At this time yesterday, the price was $2359.67Silver is trading down $0.58 or -2.0% at $28.26. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.52Bitcoin currently trades at $62,980. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $66,097. Bitcoin has not been the safe haven, but the risk-off this time:In the premarket, the major indices are trading higher:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 239.89 points. Yesterday, the index fell -248.13 or -0.68% at 37735.12S&P futures are implying a gain of 11.43 points. Yesterday, the index fell -61.59 points or -1.20% at 5061.81Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 28.17 points. Yesterday, the index fell -290.08 points or -1.79% at 15885.02The European indices are trading lower:German DAX, -0.96%France CAC , -0.96%UK FTSE 100, -1.24%Spain's Ibex, -0.82%Italy's FTSE MIB,[…]

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 16, 2024 | 05:09 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. NZDThe RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged as expected with no change as the central bank continues to state that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.The labour market report beat expectations across the board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth. The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in expansion. The market expects the first cut in August.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD sold off hard following another hot US CPI report and dropped into the key support zone around the 0.5870 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally into the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the low at 0.5780, although they will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can also find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the blue 8 moving average. If we get a pullback from the support zone, we can expect the sellers to lean on the minor trendline to position for a break below the support with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into the major trendline around the 0.6040 level. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the minor trendline where we will find the sellers waiting to increase the bearish bets into new lows. If the price were to break higher though, a reversal will be confirmed, and we could see a rally into the 0.60 handle as the buyers will increase the bullish bets. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we have the New Zealand CPI, while on Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 16th (analysis of morning deals). Fewer people are willing to sell euro

Apr 16, 2024 | 05:05 am

In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.0628 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.0628 led to a sell signal, which was not fully realized. After a 10-point downward movement, the pair returned to 1.0628, where trading is currently taking place. For this reason, I exited short positions and reassessed the technical picture.To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following conditions are required:Impressive figures from the ZEW business sentiment index for the Eurozone countries limited the downside potential of the pair, which even allowed the euro to recover slightly within the expected correction. But ahead of us are no less important, if not more important, figures on the volume of building permits issued in the US, the number of new foundations laid, and changes in industrial production. But personally, even if the data turns out to be better than economists' forecasts, although the euro may react with a decline, significant buyers will immediately manifest themselves in the market, which I plan to take advantage of. I prefer to act only on the decline after the formation of a false breakout around the new support area at 1.0605, formed by the end of the first half of the day. This will be a suitable option for buying in anticipation of a small correction to around 1.0647, where the moving averages are slightly below, favoring sellers. Breaking and updating this range from top to bottom will strengthen the pair, with a chance for a surge to 1.0686. The ultimate target will be the maximum at 1.0728, where I will take a profit. In the scenario of a further decline in EUR/USD and a lack of activity around 1.0605 in the second half of the day, the pressure on the euro within the bearish market framework will only intensify. In such a case, I will enter the market only after the formation of a false breakout around the next support at 1.0569. I plan to open long positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0545, with a target of a 30-35 point upward correction within the day.To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following conditions are required:Euro sellers have all the chances for further decline. Strong US data, together with the formation of a false breakout around the new resistance at 1.0647, formed by the end of the first half of the day, will be an ideal scenario for entering short positions with the prospect of retesting support at 1.0605. Breaking and consolidating below this range, as well as a reverse bottom-up test, will provide another selling point, with the pair moving towards 1.0569, reinforcing the bearish trend. There, I expect more active participation from major buyers. The ultimate target will be the minimum at 1.0545, where I will take a profit. In the scenario of upward movement in EUR/USD in the second half of the day, as well as the absence of bears at 1.0647, which is more likely, bulls will try to play back some of the declines that occurred yesterday. In such a case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0686. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0728, with a target of a 30-35 point downward correction.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 9, there was a decrease in long and short positions. The meeting of the European Central Bank and the dovish tone of policymakers, as well as the significant drop in the euro that followed, indicate the problems that buyers of risky assets are experiencing and will continue to experience. Considering that the stance of the Federal Reserve System will remain tight for a longer period, there is no expectation of a return in demand for the euro. For this reason, I am betting on further development of the bullish trend for the US dollar and a decline in the euro. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 12,839 to 175,419, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 28,768 to 142,696. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,451.Indicator Signals:Moving AveragesTrading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pair decline.Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.0605, will act as support.Description of Indicators:• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.• Bollinger Bands: Period 20.• Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY Analysis: Surpassing Japanese Intervention Levels - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:22 am

The sharp uptrend in the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen USD/JPY continued, with gains reaching the resistance level of 154.44, the highest for the currency pair in 34 years.

Industrial production. USA, 15:15 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:15 am

At 15:15 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production will be published in the United States. The indicator records changes in the volume of output of industrial goods and utilities in the country. Its calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may change from 0.1% to 0.4% MoM, supporting the American dollar. Read more

GBP/USD Analysis: Strong Selling Pressure - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:13 am

For the second week in a row, the GBP/USD pair has been completing its strong downward correction path, which has pushed it towards the 1.2425 support level, its lowest in five months.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:11 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. AUDThe RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and finally dropped the tightening bias.The last Monthly CPI report came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior month.The latest labour market report missed expectations by a big margin.The wage price index surprised to the upside as wage growth in Australia remains strong.The latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain in expansion.The market expects the first rate cut in November.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD fell below the 0.6440 low and extended the selloff into the 0.64 handle. The price is a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. In this case, the pullback would also coincide with the support now turned resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level which will be a nice zone for the sellers to enter the market again with a better risk to reward setup. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor trendline defining the current downward momentum with the blue 8 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. We can expect the sellers to lean on this trendline with a defined risk above it to position for further downside. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into the 0.65 resistance zone. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, if get a pullback, the sellers should lean on the trendline where they will also find the confluence of the trendline, the Fibonacci retracement levels and the red 21 moving average. If the price were to break higher though, the reversal will be confirmed, and the buyers will pile in for a rally into the 0.65 resistance zone. Upcoming EventsOn Thursday we get the Australian jobs data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Analysis: Uptrend May Continue for Long Time - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:05 am

At the start of trading this week, gold traded below the new high it hit last week, even after Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel over the weekend.

US Dollar Breaks Resistance: Opportunities in USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:01 am

The US Dollar has continued to advance following its bullish breakout in late March from a consolidating triangle formation.

EUR/USD. April 16th. Bears continue to advance against the backdrop of strong US statistics

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:01 am

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trajectory on Monday and consolidated below the corrective level of 127.2%-1.0619. The consolidation is hesitant, but until a reversal is confirmed above the level of 1.0619, the downward trend may continue toward the next Fibonacci level at 161.8%–1.0519. Closing above the level of 1.0619 would benefit the euro and signal some growth towards the corrective level of 100.0%-1.0696.The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed upward wave failed to break the peak of the previous wave (from March 21), while the new downward wave broke the last low (from April 2). Thus, we are currently dealing with a "bearish" trend, and there are currently no signs of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave (which has not even begun to form yet) must break the peak of the previous wave (from April 9). Alternatively, the new downward wave (which has also yet to begin) must fail to break the last low, which has yet to form.On Monday, the background information only pleased the bears. Throughout the day, there were not many significant reports, but the most important one – on retail trade – turned out to be significantly above traders' expectations at +0.7% m/m. Thus, in the second half of the day, bears, who were considering taking a pause, resumed their offensive, and the dollar began to rise again. The "bearish" trend persists and may last for some time. Currently, the news is supporting the US currency, and the proximity of the first easing of monetary policy in the EU does not give bulls the opportunity to go on the offensive. It was also announced yesterday that the ECB may lower the rate three times by the end of this year. Unlike the Fed, from which the market expects 1 or 2 rate cuts.On the 4-hour chart, the pair fell to the corrective level of 23.6%-1.0644 and consolidated below it. The "bullish" divergence in the CCI indicator and the RSI indicator dropping below 20 suggested some growth, but at the moment, it has not yet begun, and the divergence has already been invalidated. Consolidation of quotes below the level of 1.0644 increases the likelihood of further decline towards the next corrective level at 0.0%–1.0450.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:During the last reporting week, speculators closed 12839 long contracts and 28768 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group remains "bullish" but continues to weaken rapidly. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 175 thousand, while short contracts amount to 142 thousand. The situation will continue to change in favor of the bears. In the second column, we can see that the number of short positions has increased from 92 thousand to 142 thousand over the last 3 months. During the same period, the number of long positions decreased from 211 thousand to 175 thousand. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong information background to resume the "bullish" trend. In the near future, I do not see such a possibility.News calendar for the US and EU:EU – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany (09:00 UTC).US – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).US – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).US – Industrial Production Change (12:30 UTC).US – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speech (17:15 UTC).On April 16, the economic events calendar contains several entries, among which only Jerome Powell's speech stands out. The impact of the information background on traders' sentiment today may be of moderate strength.Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:Sales of the pair are possible if it consolidates below the level of 1.0644 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.0519. Buying opportunities can be considered on a rebound from the level of 1.0619 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.0696 and 1.0764, but in this case, sales should be closed.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Currency war and geopolitical risk are deadly concoctions for risk assets

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:00 am

The odds have inched higher for a currency war scenario where the Chinese yuan may be weakened further to drive export growth due to its latest decelerating growth trend in China’s retail sales and persistent weak housing prices. Export-oriented countries may be forced to enact “beggar-thy-neighbour” typed monetary policies to deliberately weaken their respective currencies. […]

Euro, sterling extend weakness

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:56 am

Yesterday, the euro and the British pound extended losses against the US dollar, weighed down by data showing a sharp increase in US retail sales. Adding to this were statements from Federal Reserve officials, creating a scenario that seemed quite unlikely at the beginning of this year. According to the report, US retail sales increased more than expected in March, and figures for the previous month were revised upwards. This confirms steady consumer demand that continues to fuel the surprisingly strong US economy. Retail sales increased by 0.7% month-over-month, matching the highest estimate among economists. Excluding automobiles and gasoline, sales jumped by 1%. The so-called control-group sales, which are used to calculate gross domestic product, grew by 1.1%, the most since the start of last year. Therefore, it's not surprising that during yesterday's speech, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly pointed out that there is no need to urgently adjust interest rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong labor market, and still relatively high inflation that rebounded in the first quarter of this year. Daly stated that she needs to be more confident that inflation is heading towards the Fed's 2% target before reacting. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who votes on monetary policy this year, reiterated that the current policy is in a "good place." "The worst thing we can do right now is act urgently when urgency isn't necessary," Daly said at an event at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on Monday. "We're in the ready position; we can respond as the economy evolves," Daly said. "The labor market's not giving us any indication it's faltering, and inflation is still above our target, and we need to be confident it is on path to come down to our target before we would feel the need — and I would feel the need — to react." Recall that at the last policy meeting, Fed officials left interest rates unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% and stated that they would like to see more evidence that inflation is decreasing to the 2% target before lowering borrowing costs. Last week's report showed that key consumer price indices rose more than expected in March. This marks the third consecutive month of increases, heightening some economists' and policymakers' concerns that progress in combating inflation is slowing. "We have to be thoughtful about not getting too confident that the latest sticky inflation is an indication where we're going forward, and we can't get too confident that our projection — that inflation will gradually continue to come down — is going to materialize," Daly said. Now let's move on to technical analysis. Speaking of the EUR/USD pair, the euro is clearly under pressure. If buyers regain control of the 1.0630 level, the European currency will have a chance to rise to 1.0665 and then probably to the 1.0700 mark. However, reaching the latter level without support from major players will be quite challenging. The most distant target is the peak of 1.0730. In a bear case scenario, major buyers are expected to take the lead only at around 1.0590. If not, it would be a wise decision to wait for the price to hit a new low at 1.0670 or open long positions from 1.0545. As for the GBP/USD pair, bulls need to take control of the nearest resistance level of 1.2460. In this case, the Brtiish pound is likely to advance to 1.2500. However, its breakout will be quite problematic. The most distant target is the 1.2540 area. If the price rises above it, sterling will have every chance to climb to the 1.2575 mark. In the event of a decline, bears will likely attempt to take control of the 1.2410 level. If they succeed and the price breaks out of the range, the British pound will suffer heavy losses, diving to the low of 1.2375 and even 1.2340. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Analysis: Nearest Buying Levels - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:54 am

Amid a pessimistic outlook, the heavy losses suffered by the euro price last week against the US dollar open the door to further declines in the coming days.

GBP/USD. April 16th. British statistics didn't capture traders' attention

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:47 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair executed a new reversal in favor of the American currency on Monday, with consolidation below the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2453). Thus, the process of the quotes' decline may continue toward the next level at 1.2370. Consolidation of the pair's rate above the level of 1.2453 would benefit the pound, suggesting some growth towards the level of 1.2517. The wave situation still presents no questions. The last completed upward wave failed to surpass the previous peak (from March 21), while the new downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from April 1). Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," with no signs of its completion. The first sign of bulls transitioning to an offensive could be the breakthrough of the peak on April 9, but bulls would need to cover a distance of about 290 pips to reach the zone of 1.2705–1.2715, which is unlikely to happen in the coming days.In the UK, there were no significant reports or events on Monday, but today, three reports have already been released. Additionally, in the second half of the day, three more reports will be released in the US, and Jerome Powell will give a speech. Therefore, we can expect an interesting day. The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 4.2% in February, which is much higher than traders' expectations. However, the number of new unemployed was +10.9 thousand, lower than forecasts. As for wages, they rose by 5.6%, roughly in line with both forecasts and the previous value. Overall, this package of statistics is neutral for the pound. Yet, strong retail sales were reported in America yesterday, and today, data on the construction market and industrial production might bring positive news. Jerome Powell's speech could bolster the bears further, as his rhetoric is unlikely to soften after the latest US inflation data. On the 4-hour chart, the pair executed a reversal in favor of the dollar after the formation of a "bearish" divergence in the CCI indicator and a drop to the level of 1.2450. The "bullish" divergence in the CCI indicator has been invalidated. Consolidation of the pair's rate below the level of 1.2450 allows us to anticipate a continuation of the decline towards the next corrective level at 50.0%–1.2289. The descending trend corridor characterizes the current sentiment of traders as "bearish."Commitments of Traders (COT) report:The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bullish" over the last reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 18352 units, while the number of short contracts decreased by 3190 units. The overall sentiment of major players remains "bullish" but has weakened in recent weeks. The gap between the number of long and short contracts is now less than double: 80 thousand versus 52 thousand.There are still prospects for a decline in the pound, but over the past 3 months, the number of long contracts has increased from 61 thousand to 80 thousand, while the number of short contracts has hardly changed. Over time, bulls will start to unload their buy positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been factored in. In recent months, bears have demonstrated their weakness and a complete unwillingness to switch to the offensive, but the US inflation report could give them confidence and strength.News calendar for the US and UK:UK – Unemployment Rate (06:00 UTC).UK – Change in Unemployment (06:00 UTC).UK – Change in Average Earnings (06:00 UTC).US – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).US – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).US – Industrial Production Change (12:30 UTC).US – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speech (17:15 UTC).Tuesday's economic events calendar contains many entries, some of which are already available. Jerome Powell's speech is the most important among them. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today may be of moderate strength.Forecast for GBP/USD and trader advice:Sales of the pound could be initiated if it consolidates below the level of 1.2453 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.2370. Purchases today are possible if the pair closes above the level of 1.2453 on the hourly chart, with targets of 1.2517 and 1.2584.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Housing starts. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will present March data on the number of new houses, the construction of which began in the reporting month. It is one of the most important indicators of the American construction market. It may decrease from 1.521M to 1.480M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Building permits. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on the number of building permits issued. The indicator records monthly changes in the number of applications registered by the US government for the construction of real estate and is one of the most important indicators of the sector. It may change from 1.524M to 1.514M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Consumer price index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in Canada, March data on the consumer price index will be published, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on, and also significantly influences the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. It may change from 0.3% to 0.7% MoM and from 2.8% to 3.1% YoY. Read more

GBP/USD dips after weak employment data

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:10 am

The British pound dropped 0.30% after today’s UK employment report but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2452, up 0.05%. UK job growth slides, unemployment rises The UK employment report was weaker than expected. Job growth took a hard hit in the three months to February as […]

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 16, 2024 | 02:54 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened higher as we got some risk on sentiment following the news of de-escalation between Iran and Israel after the Iran retaliation. The market came under pressure at the open as the US Retail Sales beat expectations by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures. The data continues to run hot and therefore push backword rate cuts expectations. In the second half of the trading session, we got news of Israel intending to retaliate shortly triggering another wave of risk off flows which led to some key technical breaks exacerbating the selloff. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite sold off into the first key support level at 15929 following the hot US Retail Sales and the geopolitical news. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 15453.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke out of the 3-week long range and triggered more bearish momentum as the sellers piled in more aggressively to target a break below the 15929 support. After the breakout of the rising wedge, the market started to rollover from the highs and the chances of seeing a correction all the way down to the base of the pattern at 14477 increase by the day. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we now have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the blue 8 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just one notable report left on Thursday as we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Watch out also for hawkish signals from Fed speakers throughout the week and Fed Chair Powell today. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ Forecast: Continues to See Buyers Overall - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:43 am

The Nasdaq 100 has rallied a bit during the early hours on Monday, as perhaps there's been a big sigh of relief that the Middle Eastern conflict hasn’t expanded.

USDCAD Technical Analysis - Key levels to watch for a dip-buying opportunity

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:34 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. CADThe BoC left interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains intact.The latest Canadian CPI missed expectations across the board with the underlying inflation measures falling.On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is something that the BoC is watching closely.The Canadian Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the measures remain in contractionary territory. The market expects the first rate cut in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD broke through the key 1.3620 resistance following another hot US CPI report and extended the rally into the 1.38 handle. The price got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. In this case, a pullback would also coincide with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level where the buyers will likely step in to position for a rally into a new cycle high. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor trendline defining the current upward momentum with the red 21 moving average adding some extra support. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to position for another rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the next trendline around the 1.3660 level where there will also be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level adding extra support. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of a weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the minor trendline where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. A break to the downside would confirm a reversal though and trigger a drop into the base of the divergent formation around the 1.3660 level.Upcoming EventsToday we will see the Canadian CPI, while on Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/CHF Forex Signal: Swiss Franc Weak - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:34 am

The British pound has rallied rather significantly during the trading session here on Monday, and the Swiss franc continues to be a funding currency.

Forex forecast 04/16/2024: EUR/USD, USDX, Gold and SP500 from Sebastian Seliga

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:32 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:12 Totay's key events: GDP, Industrial Production, Building Permits, Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Claimant Count Change, Trade Balance, ZEW Economic Sentiment 03:19 EUR/USD 05:24 GOLD 07:50 USDX 09:10 SP500Useful links:My other articles are available in this section: https://www.instaforex.com/analytics_authors?author=46InstaForex course for beginners: https://www.instaforex.com/distance_training_programPopular Analytics: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysisOpen trading account: https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_new_accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/SGD Analysis: Near-Term Trend Higher Resembles a Staircase Climb - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:29 am

The climb higher in the USD/SGD has continued this morning and values are being sustained.

USD/BRL Analysis: Burst Higher Has Brought Long-Term Values into Play - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:14 am

The upwards track of the USD/BRL likely has some in Brazil nervous.

EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 16

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:12 am

Overview of yesterday's trading and tips on EUR/USD The price test of 1.0646 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell further along the trend by more than 20 points. Data on the German wholesale price index and changes in eurozone industrial production were ignored in the first half of the day, preventing the euro from recovering normally. During the American session, a strong report on US retail sales led to a collapse in risky assets and stock markets, which increased demand for the dollar. Today in the first half of the day, quite interesting figures are being released on the business sentiment index from the ZEW Institute for eurozone countries, as well as on the business sentiment index from the ZEW Institute, the current situation index and the foreign trade balance for Germany. Good indicators, which should be better than economists' forecasts, will certainly help stop the fall of the euro and even lead to a good upward correction in the first half of the day. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy signal Scenario No 1. Today you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0630 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0664. At the level of 1.0664, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today on the condition of good statistics on the eurozone, but it is best to follow the trend. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0603 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and enable a reverse upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0630 and 1.0664. Sell signal Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0603 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0571, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today on the condition of two consecutive tests of 1.0630 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0603 and 1.0571. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument. The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument. The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 16

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:12 am

Overview of yesterday's trading and tips on GBP/USD The test of 1.2475 in the afternoon came at the time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point to sell the pound, especially after strong retail sales data from the US. The news that retail sales in the US nearly doubled in March, after a modest rise in February, was a catalyst for the pound falling and the US dollar strengthening. This morning, important reports are being released on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the UK and the unemployment rate. However, data on average earnings in the UK will have much greater weight. Lower earnings will affect spending, thus bringing inflation down in the medium term, which will put pressure on the pound sterling in the short term. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy signal Scenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound sterling today when GBP/USD reaches the entry point around 1.2455 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2499 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2499, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the growth of the British pound today only after strong statistics for the UK, but it is better to act as low as possible and not count on strong pullbacks. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2409 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of GBP/USD and lead to a reverse upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2455 and 1.2499. Sell signal Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after the level of 1.2409 is updated (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2358, where I am going to close sell positions and also immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound while the downward trend continues, especially after an unsuccessful attempt to grow in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2455 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2409 and 1.2358. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument. The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument. The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 16

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:12 am

Overview of yesterday's trading and tips on USD/JPY The test of 153.94 in the afternoon occurred at the time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point to buy the US dollar during the ongoing bull market. As a result, USD/JPY rose by more than 40 pips. Robust retail sales in the US once again confirmed economists' fears that American inflation is again gaining strength. So, it is unlikely to count on a rate cut this summer. This creates an even greater imbalance in currency pairs with the Japanese yen, which cannot find any support even from the forex interventions of the central bank, which, by the way, have not happened for a long time. As for long positions in such a bull market, I am going to take advantage of corrections and pullbacks. Entering with long positions during a breakout at current highs is quite dangerous, so don't forget about stop orders. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy signals Scenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 154.59 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 155.03 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 155.03, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today based on the trend after breaking through the daily high. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 154.20 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 154.59 and 155.03. Sell signals Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level of 154.20 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 153.75, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return after an unsuccessful breakout of the daily high and active actions by the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 154.59 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.20 and 153.75. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument. The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument. The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

DAX Forecast: Strong with a Bounce - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:08 am

The German Dax has shown the market to show upward pressure with the €18,000 level, an area that a lot of people will be looking at as and an area of interest.

CHF/JPY Forecast: Carry Trade Currencies Battle on Monday - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 01:05 am

The Swiss franc in the Japanese yen are both very low yielding currencies and are quite often used to fund so-called “carry trades.”

CAC Forecast: Paris Gives Up Early Gains - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:49 am

The Parisian CAC 40 has initially rallied during the training session on Monday, but has given back in the early gain.

Video market update for April 16, 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:40 am

Potential for the bigger drop on NAS100The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Find the Buyers Against Canadian Dollar - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:39 am

The US dollar initially fell during the trading session on Monday but has seen buyers step in to pick it up near the 1.3725 CAD level.

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Bounce Back and Forth - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:25 am

The S&P 500 initially tried to rally during the course of the trading session on Monday.

AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Dollar Gives Up Early Gains - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:20 am

The Aussie dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:16 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Tokyo CPI, which is seen as a leading indicator for National CPI, came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY finally broke out of the consolidation following another hot US CPI report. This breakout opened the door for much higher prices with no real resistance in sight until the 160.00 handle. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance now turned support where we can also find the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the next major trendline around the 146.00 handle. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another trendline where the buyers can lean onto in case of a pullback where they will also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a break below the 151.92 support zone with a better risk to reward ratio. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the trendline and the Fibonacci retracement level around the 152.50 level. The price will need to break below the most recent swing low at 153.87 to confirm the bigger pullback as the sellers will likely pile in more aggressively to target the 152.50 level. Upcoming EventsOn Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Breakout Confirmed - 16 April 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:09 am

The GBP/USD pair continued its freefall as signs emerged that the UK was beating the US on inflation.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 16, 2024

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:06 am

Not only has the apparent divergence in the future actions of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve literally set the euro on a path towards parity with the dollar, but now the economic reports are also mounting pressure on the single currency. And this is despite the fact that industrial production in the eurozone seems to be improving. However, first of all, it is still contracting. And secondly, the slowdown in the pace of decline is slower than expected. It was expected to slow from -6.7% to -4.2%, but in reality, it slowed from -6.6% to -6.4%. So even if the previous results were revised, this still doesn't inspire much optimism. Whereas in the United States, the situation is exactly the opposite. The pace of retail sales growth accelerated from 2.1% to 4.0%, which was expected to grow from 1.5% to 2.5%. So, in general, the macroeconomic dynamics clearly works in favor of the dollar.And we will likely see the same situation today. Industrial production in the United States, which is currently declining by -0.2%, may rise 0.6%. In other words, the decline will be replaced by growth. This will also weigh on the single currency.Despite clear signs of oversold conditions, the euro continued to depreciate. As a result, the quote touched the level of 1.0600, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment among speculators.On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is hovering in the oversold zone, which suggests that the instrument may be due for a price correction.On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, corresponding to the direction of the downward cycle.OutlookIn order to increase the volume of short positions despite signs of oversold conditions, the price must settle below the level of 1.0600. In this case, the quote could move towards the 2023 local low. Otherwise, the area around the 1.0600 level may act as support, leading to a rebound.In terms of complex indicator analysis, indicators point to a downward cycle in the short-term and intraday periods.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade balance. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the EU will publish February trade balance data, recording the difference between payments for exported and imported goods. It may increase from 11.4B euros, supporting the euro. Read more

ZEW economic conditions. Germany, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the April index of current economic conditions in Germany from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The indicator reflects the prevailing sentiment among financial analysts in Germany, and the subject of the study is the most important indicators: inflation, interest rates, stock indices, exchange rates, and oil prices. It may continue its negative trend from −80.5 points to −82.0 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

ZEW economic sentiment. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the April EU business sentiment index from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of institutional investors and analysts who are optimistic and pessimistic. It may rise from 33.5 points to 37.2 points, supporting the euro. Read more

Gold Forecast: Strong Long Term - 16 April 2024

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:58 pm

Gold has been a bit all over the place during the early hours on Monday, and perhaps a little bit of relief is starting to creep into the market that the Middle Eastern War hasn’t expanded.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Death Cross Pattern Nears - 16 April 2024

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:47 pm

The EUR/USD pair has crashed for five straight days as the US dollar has staged a strong comeback.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 16

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:46 pm

EUR/USDHigher TimeframesThe bears have started testing the monthly support level (1.0611). The outcome may determine the pair's possible movement. The next support level after breaking the current one (1.0611) will be the lower boundary of the weekly cloud (1.0503). In the event of a rebound, the first resistance may be provided by the daily short-term trend, which is currently at 1.0746, and with each passing day, it will move closer to the price chart.H4 – H1On lower timeframes, the bears have left the correction zone and the pair continues to move downwards. Currently, the first support that is being tested is the classic Pivot point (1.0608). Beyond that lies S2 (1.0592) and S3 (1.0563). In case the bulls are active, the focus will be on the resistance levels, which can be found at 1.0637 – 1.0653 – 1.0682 – 1.0698 – 1.0731 (classic Pivot levels + weekly long-term trend)***GBP/USDHigher TimeframesYesterday, the pair closed below the nearest resistance zone that has been tested (1.2464 – 1.2481 – 1.2503). The pair could rise if the price consolidates above the specified resistance levels. As for the bears, if the pair continues to fall, the next support could be found at the final level of the weekly Ichimoku Golden Cross (1.2383).H4 – H1The bears supported the downward movement and helped the price break out of the bullish correction, developing a downward trend. Therefore, sellers have the advantage at the moment. Currently, the first support of the classic Pivot levels (1.2419) is being tested, followed by the S2 (1.2396) and S3 (1.2357) supports. In case the pair corrects higher, the intraday bullish targets for today will be 1.2458 – 1.2481 – 1.2520 – 1.2547 (classic Pivot levels + weekly long-term trend).***The technical analysis of the situation uses:Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibonacci Kijun levelsLower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Risk-On Flow - 16 April 2024

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:40 pm

Price falls firmly to new 5-month low.

BTC/USD Forecast: Finds Buyers on Dips - 16 April 2024

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:40 pm

The Bitcoin market has rallied pretty significantly during the early hours on Monday after the weekend provided a lot of fireworks in the spot market.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: More Downside as the US Dollar Surges - 16 April 2024

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:33 pm

The BTC/USD pair remained under pressure as the US dollar rally continued.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:31 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.70; (P) 191.71; (R1) 193.01; More.. Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 189.97 support will indicate that it’s at least correcting the rise from 178.32, […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:26 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.90; (P) 163.67; (R1) 164.68; More… Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.26 support will argue that it’s at least correcting the rise from 153.15, and target […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:24 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8525; (P) 0.8539; (R1) 0.8551; More… Outlook in EUR/GBP remains unchanged as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 0.8529 support will argue that the corrective recovery from 0.8497 has completed at 0.8601. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:22 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6438; (P) 1.6468; (R1) 1.6521; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD turned back to the upside with break of 1.6516 resistance. Further rally would be seen to 1.6677 resistance next. Break there will confirm that correction from 1.6742 has completed, and bring further rally through this high. On the downside, though, break of […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:20 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9662; (P) 0.9702; (R1) 0.9721; More… No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook as correction from 0.9847 is in progress. Intraday bias stays mildly on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9847 at 0.9620. But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound, and set the range for […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis - Key levels to watch for a pullback

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:52 pm

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with an uptick in the unemployment rate and an easing in wage growth.The UK CPI missed expectations across the board but with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating. The market sees a 50/50 chance of a rate cut in June.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD finally broke out of the 4-month range and extended the drop into the 1.24 handle before finding some support. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the confluence with the red 21 moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, they might also lean on the support turned resistance around the 1.2510 level where they will find the confluence of the blue 8 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a fakeout above the trendline last week and then the huge selloff following the US CPI release. We can also see that we have a minor trendline defining the current downward momentum. The sellers might lean on this trendline with a defined risk above it to position for further downside although the risk to reward wouldn’t be optimal. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into the major trendline and eventually target a break above it. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback should be the minor trendline while a break to the upside would confirm a reversal and trigger a rally into the base of the divergent formation around the 1.2570 level. Upcoming EventsToday we will see the UK jobs data. Tomorrow, we have the UK CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the UK Retail Sales. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Key events on April 16: fundamental analysis for beginners

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:48 pm

Analysis of macroeconomic reports: There are quite a few macro events scheduled for Tuesday, but there are hardly any important points. In the European Union, the economic sentiment indices from the ZEW Institute for the euro area and Germany may provide impetus to traders. While these reports are considered important, the market either shows a weak reaction or completely ignores them. In the UK, reports on unemployment, unemployment claims, and wages will be released. These are not crucial indicators and may only provoke a local market reaction. Lastly, the US will release data on building permits, new home sales, and industrial production. All three reports are also of secondary importance.Since downtrends are currently forming for the euro and the pound, we believe that all of the aforementioned reports will not be able to change market sentiment. Both pairs may rise today based on macro data, but we expect further downward movement in the future.Analysis of fundamental events: There will be two fundamental events on Tuesday. A speech by Federal Reserve official Mary Daly, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Both speeches can be considered important. Fed officials may comment on the latest inflation report this week. Since their statements are unlikely to be dovish, this will support the US dollar. Bailey rarely speaks, so it is always interesting to hear from the BoE chief. It is unlikely that he will be able to save the pound from falling, as his statements would need to be hawkish for that.General conclusion:Today, there will be many events, each of which may have a small impact on the pairs' movements. Therefore, throughout the day, we may see numerous reversals and pullbacks that are unlikely to affect the downtrend. The key event of the day is Bailey's speech, which is scheduled for the evening. In any case, we expect the euro and the pound to continue their medium-term decline.Basic rules of a trading system:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:40 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0608; (P) 1.0636; (R1) 1.0653; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point. Current fall is part of the decline from 1.1138. Next target is 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. On the upside, above 1.0664 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:37 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2421; (P) 1.2460; (R1) 1.2484; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral first and more consolidations could be seen. But recovery recovery should be limited by 1.2577 minor resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2419 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% projection of 1.2892 to […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:34 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9101; (P) 0.9126; (R1) 0.9141; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9268. In the bigger picture, price actions from […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:31 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.34; (P) 153.89; (R1) 154.83; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend is in progress for 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 153.37 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally. In the bigger […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:29 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3744; (P) 1.3769; (R1) 1.3814; More… USD/CAD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally from 1.3176 would target 100% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3477 at 1.3841. On the downside, below 1.3724 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 16th. The pound may rebound, but the flat is over, and there are no reasons for growth

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:18 pm

After a three-day decline, the GBP/USD currency pair started an upward correction on Monday. The correction, as well as the pair's volatility during the day, was weak. If we exclude Wednesday and Friday of last week, the pound's volatility has remained quite low for over two months, greatly hindering trading. However, important events will also occur this week, particularly the UK inflation report. Therefore, we will most likely see volatile movements. The question is, in which direction?Last week, the British pound fell below the 1.2500 level for the first time in 4 months, the approximate lower boundary of the sideways channel on the 24-hour timeframe. Thus, there are grounds to assert that the flat is over and the downward trend will resume. The technical picture confirms this. However, this hypothesis still allows for a small amount of doubt. The market has refused to sell the pound for six months. The problem may lie not in the market itself but in the Bank of England, which, through currency interventions, prevents the pound from falling. After all, the British currency has been at a downward peak for 16 years and has depreciated against the dollar by half during this time. It's unlikely that the British regulator can sit back and watch the pound fall even further, considering the general dissatisfaction with its actions and policies among the British population.Therefore, we still doubt that the pound will suddenly collapse by 500–600 points, as the macroeconomic background, fundamental factors, and technical picture demand. However, if we abstract from various fantasies, the pound should decline against the dollar without options. The market was expecting a Fed rate cut in March and didn't get it. I expected it in June and still need to get it. At the same time, British inflation may fall below American inflation this week, so even the Bank of England, which had to deal with higher inflation than the Fed, may start easing monetary policy sooner. Naturally, this is a bullish factor for the dollar and a bearish one for the pound.However, if inflation in the UK is also not rushing towards the target level of 2%, the pound may show a new upward trend. This trend is imminent anyway, as the CCI indicator has twice entered oversold territory, and this same indicator has formed a bullish divergence. A correction would be a logical development after a three-day decline of 260 points. However, after the correction is completed, we still expect a new decline in the pair. The inflation report from the UK will indicate whether we should expect a significant decline in the pound or if it will be limited to a gradual movement towards the 1.2050 level, which could take 3-6 months. Either way, there are no buy signals in any timeframe. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 102 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Thus, on Tuesday, April 16, we expect movement within the range bounded by the levels of 1.2357 and 1.2561. The senior channel of linear regression is still sideways, but the downward trend may have resumed. The CCI indicator has again entered oversold territory, which could trigger a new rise in the pair. However, the completion of the 4-month flat remains crucial at the moment.Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.2451S2 – 1.2421S3 – 1.2390Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.2482R2 – 1.2512R3 – 1.2543Trading recommendations:The GBP/USD currency pair presumably completed the flat on the 24-hour TF, which is the most important. We still expect movement only to the south, and now that the 1.2500 level has been surpassed, sales of the pair with targets at 1.2390 and 1.2357 can be considered. Buying the British pound when the price exits the sideways channel through the lower boundary is irrelevant. The pair may rebound upwards this week, as the CCI indicator has twice entered oversold territory, but we do not consider it advisable to trade this correction.Illustration explanations:Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. The trend is strong now if both are directed in the same direction.Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted now.Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator - its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) means a trend reversal towards the opposite direction is approaching.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 16. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:14 pm

Analyzing Monday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart EUR/USD returned to its favorite style of movement over the past few months – low volatility. However, take note that the downtrend persists, the bullish correction after the three-day slump was quite weak, and by the end of the day, the euro depreciated even further. Thus, the market did not even pause after last week's decline and they started to sell the euro again on Monday.In our opinion, the current movement is completely logical. We repeatedly mentioned that the euro has no grounds to rise at the moment. And after the US inflation report (which puts an end to market hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June), the dollar has even more reasons to rise. At the same time, the European Central Bank may lower rates in June, as members of the bank's monetary committee are already openly speaking about this. Therefore, we expect the euro to fall further. Yesterday, the US retail sales report came in above expectations, so the dollar had macroeconomic support.EUR/USD on 5M chart Only one trading signal was generated on the 5-minute timeframe. Before the opening of the US trading session, the pair rebounded from the level of 1.0668 with an error of 2 points, after which it managed to drop almost to the level of 1.0618. The pair did not reach this level, but the price remained near it for almost the entire evening. Therefore, beginners had enough time to manually close the short position. The profit from it was about 25 pips. With a total volatility of just over 40 pips, this is an excellent result.Trading tips on Tuesday:On the hourly chart, the downtrend persists. We believe that the euro should continue to fall regardless, as it is still too high, and in general, the trend is headed downwards. The recent macro data have provided full support for the US dollar. The fundamental background indicates that the ECB will start lowering rates at the next meeting, while the Fed's move remains uncertain.Today, the pair may continue moving downwards. The pair has breached the level of 1.0618, and the bullish correction turned out to be a minor move. Therefore, beginners may consider short positions again, aiming for 1.0568.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611-1.0618, 1.0668, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. In the European Union, the economic sentiment indices from the ZEW Institute for the euro area may provide impetus to traders. In the United States, reports on building permits, housing starts, and industrial production will be released. We consider these as secondary reports and do not expect a strong market reaction to them.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 16. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:14 pm

Analyzing Monday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair also tried to start a minor bullish correction on Monday, but the downward movement resumed in the second half of the day. Take note that a significant event occurred last week – the pair left the 4-month sideways channel and may now begin forming a strong downtrend. There were concerns that the new week would start with another illogical rise from the pound, but so far they have not been justified. The British pound should fall along with the euro, as there are many more reasons for the US dollar to rise.The key reason for the pair's decline is the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy, while the market has been expecting monetary easing from the US central bank. These hopes have not been justified, as inflation in the United States is rising. At the same time, inflation in the United Kingdom could reach 3% this week, which would give the Bank of England the opportunity to begin discussing the timing of the first policy easing.GBP/USD on 5M chart The movements and trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe were not the best. During the European trading session, a buy signal was formed around the level of 1.2457, but the price failed to reach the target level of 1.2502 by just a few pips. Subsequently, there was a rebound from the level of 1.2457, but the price failed to reach the target level once again. Therefore, the first two signals could be considered false signals, and the third signal around the level of 1.2457 should not have been executed. Profit from both trades could only be obtained if the trades were manually closed.Trading tips on Tuesday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair finally has real technical grounds to end the 4-month flat phase. After surpassing the level of 1.2502, traders may expect a new downward trend. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the dollar to a much greater extent than the British one. Therefore, we only expect downward movements from the pair.On Tuesday, novice traders can look for sell signals below the level of 1.2502. A correction may follow, but it is unlikely to be a strong movement. If the price does not return above the level of 1.2502 in the near future, the chances of forming a downward trend will increase even more.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. Today, the UK will release reports on unemployment, unemployment claims, and average earnings. These data may affect the pair's movement, but the downtrend is expected to persist. The US will only publish minor reports.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:13 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6422; (P) 0.6458; (R1) 0.6477; More… AUD/USD’s break of 0.6442 support confirms resumption of whole fall from 0.6870. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378. Decisive break there will pave the way to 0.6269 low, and possibly further to 100% projection at […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 16th. In plain text: The ECB will cut rates in June

Apr 15, 2024 | 22:09 pm

The EUR/USD currency pair traded again on Monday in a sluggish, low-volatility mode after the crazy second half of last week. Naturally, the market calmed down after the US inflation report, which showed an increase of 3.5%. Recall that inflation is the main indicator for the Fed when determining monetary policy. Neither market expectations, expert forecasts, nonfarm payrolls, nor the unemployment rate matter. It is important to understand this because many traders have been wrong several times, expecting policy easing first in March and then in June.As the consumer price index in the United States rises, the question of the Fed rate cut may be postponed indefinitely. Specifically, to "indefinite" because no one knows when inflation will return to at least 3%, achieved last year. Thus, the Fed will only discuss easing monetary policy if inflation starts approaching the target mark (between 2% and 2.5%). Therefore, all traders who think a rate cut is imminent should stock up on popcorn and prepare for a long wait. And the longer it lasts, the stronger the US dollar may grow.We have repeatedly said earlier this year and at the end of last year that market expectations for a Fed rate cut are too high. It is becoming obvious that the American regulator intends to refrain from following any plans and act decisively according to the situation. So until inflation decreases, there's no need to consider when monetary policy easing begins.At the same time, in the Eurozone, everything is ready for the first rate cut. Inflation has dropped to 2.4%, and most ECB officials are already openly stating that the rate cut will begin in June. Of course, formulations like "high probability," "likely," "if the downward trend in inflation persists," and so on are used. However, we all understand that the probability of monetary policy easing in June is currently 80-90%. The consumer price index in the Eurozone could theoretically accelerate in April or May, which would prompt the regulator to delay easing. But in any case, the ECB is much closer to a rate cut than the Fed. And the ECB rate (for those who don't remember) is 4.5%. The Fed rate is 5.5%. Thus, the interest rate divergence will only increase in 2024, which should benefit the US currency.On Monday, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB is ready to cut rates in June "provided that no unpleasant surprises occur." He also noted that the June cut will not be the only one; by the end of the year, the ECB may lower rates several more times. Recall that some experts believe the Fed will be ready for easing no earlier than the end of the year. By that time, the ECB rate may even drop below 4%. Thus, as before, we expect only the strengthening of the US currency. When the Fed begins to ease policy, the dollar will undoubtedly depreciate. But until that moment, it's still very, very far away. The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 16 is 77 points, characterized as "average." We expect movement in the pair between the levels of 1.0560 and 1.0714 on Tuesday. The senior linear regression channel is sideways, but the downward trend persists. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold territory, but we expect only a slight upward retracement. It may start after a few days.Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.0620Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.0681R2 – 1.0742R3 – 1.0803Trading recommendations:The EUR/USD pair has resumed its downtrend, as we expected. The European currency should continue to decline almost in any case, so we continue to consider sales with targets at 1.0620 and 1.0560. Buying is impractical even if the price consolidates above the moving average line. The fundamental background now suggests that only a rise in the dollar can be expected.Illustration explanations:Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. The trend is strong now if both are directed in the same direction.The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted now.Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator - its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) means a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Unemployment rate. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), February unemployment data will be published in the UK, recording the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. It may adjust from 3.9% to 4.0%. Read more

Claimant count. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the UK. The rate measures the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given month. It may change from 16.8K to 17.2K, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Employment change 3M/3M. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the UK will publish February employment data for the previous three-month period, showing changes in the number of employed citizens in the country. It may continue its negative trend from –21.0K, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – Pause in oil rally, UK and Japan inflation, China Q1 GDP are the focus for this week

Apr 15, 2024 | 18:38 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, the possible scenarios on the trajectory oil prices after its 13% rally seen in the past month amid geopolitical tensions in Middle East with fears of tic-for-tact retaliation moves between Israel and Iran. Secondly, the adverse […]

Unemployment rate. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), March unemployment data will be published in China, reflecting the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. It may fall from 5.3% to 5.2%. Read more

Retail sales. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), March data on retail sales will be presented in China. The indicator records the monthly volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on samples of retail stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). It may adjust from 5.5% to 5.1% YoY. Read more

Gross domestic product. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), Chinese data on Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) will be published. It is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy, considering domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. It may consolidate at 1.0% QoQ and drop from 5.2% to 4.8% YoY. Read more

Industrial production. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production will be published in China, reflecting changes in the volume of production of goods and utilities in the country. The calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may decrease from 7.0% to 6.4% YoY, putting pressure on the yuan. Read more

AUDUSD breaks lower. Below trend line and low of swing area

Apr 15, 2024 | 12:27 pm

The AUDUSD is breaking to a new session low, and in the process is moving below a downward sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart above. The price has also moved below the low of a swing area at 0.64423.CLose risk is now 0.6455 (the high of a swing area). They below that level and traders with next target down toward the 0.6400.. The low price from 2023 reached 0.62698. That was the lowest level going back to 2022. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ tumble continues with the index currently down near 1.5%

Apr 15, 2024 | 11:01 am

The selling has intensified in the NASDAQ index. It currently trades down around 1.51% at 15931.81. The low price reached 15909.20. That took the price to the lowest level since March 5.Technically, the March 5 low comes in at 15925.91, and would be the next target followed by the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 trading range. Available comes in at 15751.79.There is a gap from the February 21 high at 15583.68 (see the yellow area on the chart above). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD trades up and back down. Tests a swing area target between the 0.6442 and 0.6455.

Apr 15, 2024 | 10:24 am

The AUDUSD moved higher in the Asian session as sell the rumour, buy the fact price action after the Iran attack on Isreal over the weekend. HOwevet, the price has moved back to the downside over the last few hours of trading, as is really suggest another retaliatory strike is lightly against Iran as a deterrent.Technically the prices back down testing a swing area between 0.6442 and 0.6455. A move below their level would increase the sellers control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF traded to a new 2024 high, but failed.What would increase the bearish bias now?

Apr 15, 2024 | 08:25 am

The USDCHF traded to a new 2024 high and in the process moved above a swing area high near 0.9146. The momentum faded and the price moved back to the downside. Having said that, the decline has been modest. The price remains within a swing area between 0.9112 and 0.9146. Within that. It is a trendline on the hourly chart near 0.9123, and a corrective low at 0.9120. The rising 100-day moving average comes in at 0.9101 and would be another target to get to - and through - if the seller are to take more control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD eyes UK employment release

Apr 15, 2024 | 08:12 am

The British pound is steady on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2445, up 0.05%. US retail sales climb 0.7% US consumers continue to shop and spend as March retail sales was stronger than expected. Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m, up from a revised 0.9% gain in February and above the […]

EURUSD trades to a new session low

Apr 15, 2024 | 07:44 am

The EURUSD is trading to a new session low and in the process testing Friday's low at 1.0622. A low price just reached 1.06226.Looking at the 4-hour chart, the high for the day stalled within the swing area between 1.0655 and 1.0675. The high price reached 1.06646 before rotating back to the downside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 06:55 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0599; (P) 1.0665; (R1) 1.0708; More… No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current fall is part of the decline from 1.1138. Next target is 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. On the upside, above 1.0723 support turned resistance will turn intraday […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 06:53 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9105; (P) 0.9126; (R1) 0.9164; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral first. Consolidation from 0.9146 might still extend further. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9146 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9268. In the bigger picture, price […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 06:50 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.78; (P) 153.08; (R1) 153.58; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current up trend is in progress for 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 153.37 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally. In the bigger […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Analysis: No End in Sight for the Yen's Slump

Apr 15, 2024 | 06:41 am

The USD/JPY continued its remarkable rally last week amid continued signals of further tightening by the US Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD Analysis: Heading Towards 1.2300 Support

Apr 15, 2024 | 06:33 am

The GBP/USD continued its decline last week as the US Dollar Index (DXY) gained strength.

EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Dominance May Extend

Apr 15, 2024 | 06:27 am

The EUR/USD fell to a five-month low of 1.0622 support amid risk aversion and a negative outlook for the future of ECB policy at the end of last week's trading.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 15, 2024 | 06:19 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2396; (P) 1.2481; (R1) 1.2535; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. Some consolidations would be seen first, but recovery should be limited by 1.2577 minor resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 1.2425 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Euro ends slide as industrial production rebounds

Apr 15, 2024 | 05:14 am

The euro has stabilized on Monday after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0656, up 0.14%. The US dollar posted strong gains last week against the majors and surged 1.8% against the euro, which fell to a six-month low. Eurozone industrial production rebounded 0.8% m/m in February following […]

As the NA session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest.

Apr 15, 2024 | 05:03 am

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest the USD is mostly weaker with gains only vs the JPY today. The markets have gotten through the Iran attack on Isreal over the weekend as defense systems intercepted 99% of the incoming missiles with minimal damage. Isreal still weighs the response and they continue to saber rattle (as you do). That may keep markets on edge but at the snapshot this morning in the US, stocks are higher, yields are higher as the flight to safety unwinds, the USD lost its flight to safety bid, and even oil is lower. In other news:Goldman Sachs reported EPS of $11.58 much higher than the $8.56 expected. Revenues came in at $14.21 billion versus $12.92 billion estimate.Tesla is laying off more than 10% of its global workforceCharles Schwab reported EPS of $0.74 versus $0.73 expected. Revenues came in at $4.74B versus $4.70B estimateCentral-bank news:Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan is shifted to a more discretionary approach to setting policy with less emphasis on inflation.ECBs Rehn said that the ECB and cut in June if inflation cells as expectedECBs Kasmir agreed that rate can be cut in June given persistent for inflation and added that restrictions can be gradually relaxed.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down -$0.71 or -0.83% at $84.95. At this time yesterday, the price was at $86.25Gold is trading up $16.47 or 0.70% at $2359.67. At this time yesterday, the price was $2394.45Silver is trading up $0.68 or 2.44% at $28.52. At this time yesterday, the price was at $20.98Bitcoin currently trades at $66,097. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $70,852In the premarket, the major indices are trading higher:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 199.67 points. On Friday, the index fell -475.84 points or -4.24% at 37983.25S&P futures are implying a gain of 27.84 points. On Friday, the index fell -75.65 points or -1.46% at 5123.40Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 111.00 points. On Friday, the index fell -267.10 points or -1.62% at 16175.09The European indices are trading higher:German DAX, +1.01%France CAC , +1.04%UK FTSE 100, -0.18%Spain's Ibex, +0.26%Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.20% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly lower:Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.74%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +1.26%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.72%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.46%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher as flight to safety flows reverse2-year yield 4.959%, +5.8 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.897%5-year yield 4.625%, +6.7 basis points at this time Friday, the yield was at 4.558%10-year yield 4.581%, +5.5 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.51%30-year yield 4.674%, +4.3 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.626%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads:The 2-10 year spread is at -37.8 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -37.7 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -28.5 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -27.1 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10 year yields are higher: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/TRY Forecast: Market Moves & Trading Tips

Apr 15, 2024 | 04:56 am

The pair rose in early trading today, at the same slow upward pace.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 15, 2024 | 04:01 am

Last Friday, the Nasdaq Composite sold off into the close as we got risk off flows across the board due to news of imminent Iranian retaliation. Over the weekend, Iran launched its operation with drones and missiles against Israel but almost all of them were intercepted and there were no casualties. In the end, Iran said that the operation was deemed concluded and we got reports of general de-escalation with the US telling Israel that it won't support a retaliation. We might see some positive risk sentiment and probably gap up with the economic data being in focus next.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite has been consolidating around the 16206 level for over a month and despite some bearish catalysts like another hot US CPI and the risk off flows, the price couldn’t make a new low. This could be a signal that the market is more likely to break to the upside and print new all-time highs, although we will need to see a breakout first to confirm it. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been ranging between the 16090 support and the 16480 resistance. The market participants keep playing the range by buying at support and selling at resistance, awaiting a breakout on either side to give an indication for the next big move. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the rangebound price action inside the blue box with no clear signal for the next move until we get a breakout on either side. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just two notable reports. Today we have the Retail Sales data while on Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Analysis: Opportunity to Rebound Upwards

Apr 15, 2024 | 03:42 am

The upward breakout trend in gold prices continues with only a slight and temporary pause.

Retail Sales. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) March data on retail sales will be published in the United States. The indicator captures the volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on a sample of stores of different types and sizes, and is an important indicator of consumer spending with a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The value is expected to correct from 0.6% to 0.8% in March, while the core indicator will rise from 0.3% to 0.5%. Read more

NZ dollar slides to five-month low

Apr 15, 2024 | 03:13 am

The New Zealand dollar has stabilized on Monday after as sharp decline of 1% on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5945, up 0.14%. The New Zealand dollar dropped as low as 0.5927 earlier, its lowest point since November 14. NZ Services PSI declines New Zealand’s services sector had a dismal March, […]

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Apr 15, 2024 | 02:48 am

Last Friday, the Dow Jones sold off into the close as we got risk off flows across the board due to news of imminent Iranian retaliation. Over the weekend, Iran launched its operation with drones and missiles against Israel but almost all of them were intercepted and there were no casualties. In the end, Iran said that the operation was deemed concluded and we got reports of general de-escalation with the US telling Israel that it won't support a retaliation. We might see some positive risk sentiment and probably gap up with the economic data being in focus next.Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones has been trading inside a rising channel and continued to diverge with the MACD for a long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. Recently, we got a breakout which opened the door for a bigger correction into the 37128 level. The sellers managed to break the first key support level and will now target a break below the second one as well. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely step in here with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into another all-time high. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been getting rejected by the downward trendline and the blue 8 moving average as the sellers kept leaning on them with a defined risk above the trendline to position for new lows. If we get another pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline again to position for a break below the second key support level with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that besides the trendline and the 8 moving average, the sellers will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level adding some extra confluence around the 38300 level. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just two notable reports. Today we have the Retail Sales data while on Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/ZAR Analysis: Turn Higher as U.S Inflation Numbers Cause Reaction

Apr 15, 2024 | 02:26 am

Upon the higher than expected U.S inflation numbers published last Wednesday the USD/ZAR saw a swift bolt upwards.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: No Real Direction

Apr 15, 2024 | 02:00 am

A short scalp off $1.0700 could be the best opportunity today.

USD/JPY Forecast: Finding Support

Apr 15, 2024 | 01:58 am

The US dollar initially pulled back against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday, but at this point in time, have turned around to show signs of strength.

S&P 500 Forecast: Earnings Kick Off

Apr 15, 2024 | 01:50 am

The S&P 500 fell a bit during the trading session on Friday, but we continue to see a bit of support near the 5,150 level.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Apr 15, 2024 | 01:23 am

Last Friday, the S&P 500 sold off into the close as we got risk off flows across the board due to news of imminent Iranian retaliation. Over the weekend, Iran launched its operation with drones and missiles against Israel but almost all of them were intercepted and there were no casualties. In the end, Iran said that the operation was deemed concluded and we got reports of general de-escalation with the US telling Israel that it won't support a retaliation. We might see some positive risk sentiment and probably gap up with the economic data being in focus next.S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 has been diverging with the MACD for a long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. The break of the trendline and the 21 moving average could be a bad omen for the buyers as it opened the door for a bigger correction into the 4713 level. The price fell into the first key support level at 5104 last Friday following some risk off flows into the weekend. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to target the next support at 5057. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent price action might have formed what looks like a bullish flag, although the price will need to break out to the upside to confirm it. We can also see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the upper bound of the flag where they will also find the confluence of the previous strong resistance zone and the red 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that besides the resistance and the moving average, the sellers will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level adding some extra confluence around the 5180 level. Given the news of de-escalation, we might indeed get some risk on flows today and push towards those levels. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just two notable reports. Today we have the Retail Sales data while on Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:12 am

Commitments of Traders aggregate net bullish open positions of large speculators in the Gold futures market have flashed a bearish contrarian condition. The recent rally in Gold (XAU/USD) has been primarily driven by an increase in geopolitical risk premium arising from Middle East tensions. A lack of fresh catalysts after the latest Iran retaliation offensive […]

Gold Technical Analysis

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:11 am

Last Friday, Gold rallied strongly on the back of the news of an imminent Iranian retaliation but eventually gave back all the gains as some Iranian officials indicated that it will be a “calibrated” response. Over the weekend, Iran launched its operation with drones and missiles against Israel but almost all of them were intercepted and there were no casualties. In the end, Iran said that the operation was deemed concluded and we got reports of general de-escalation with the US telling Israel that it won't support a retaliation. We might see some positive risk sentiment in the European session which might put some pressure on Gold. In the big picture, Gold should remain supported as we head into the easing cycle, but in the short-term the hawkish repricing in rate cuts expectations is likely to weigh on Gold, especially if the rate hikes start to be put on the table at some point. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Gold last Friday spiked above the 2400 level but eventually erased all the gains and ended the day lower. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets and target a bigger drop into the next trendline around the 2100 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the trendline around the 2275 level where we can also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. We can see that the price bounced on a minor trendline last Friday as the buyers stepped in to position for a rally into a new all-time high. A break below the trendline should trigger a selloff into the major trendline as the sellers will likely pile in more aggressively. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 2372 level where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to position for a break below the trendline with a better risk to reward ratio. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just two notable reports. Today we have the Retail Sales data while on Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold, while weak figures should give it a boost. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Industrial Production. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2) February data on the volume of industrial production of eurozone countries will be published, which reflect changes in the volume of production of industrial goods and utilities in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electricity sector. On an annualized basis, the figure is expected to correct from -6.7% to -2.9%, and on a monthly basis - from -3.2% to -1.8%, putting pressure on the euro's position. Read more

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis

Apr 14, 2024 | 22:56 pm

Last Friday, the Russell 2000 sold off into the close as we got risk off flows across the board due to news of imminent Iranian retaliation. Over the weekend, Iran launched its operation with drones and missiles against Israel but almost all of them were intercepted and there were no casualties. In the end, Iran said that the operation was deemed concluded and we got reports of general de-escalation with the US telling Israel that it won't support a retaliation. We might see some positive risk sentiment and probably gap up with the economic data being in focus next.Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 fell to the key support zone around the 2020 level following another hot US CPI report and after a small bounce, sold off once more into the weekend following the Iran retaliation news. We can expect the buyers to step in around these levels with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 1920. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that if we were to get a bounce from the support, the sellers will have a good risk to reward setup around the downward trendline where they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into new highs. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that besides the trendline and the moving average, the sellers will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level adding some extra confluence to the resistance around the 2045 level. We can also notice that the latest leg lower diverged with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the downward trendline and give the buyers some more conviction for the initial upward move. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just two notable reports. Today we have the Retail Sales data while on Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Unemployment Rate. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 14, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2) February data on the Unemployment Rate will be published in Turkey. This indicator records all persons aged 15 years and older who were not employed during the reporting period, who used at least one of the job search channels in the last three months, as well as citizens who are already employed or have become self-employed, but are awaiting registration of the necessary documents. If the value continues to rise in February from the current 9.1%, this could put pressure on the lira's positions. Read more

Producer Price Index. Switzerland, 08:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 14, 2024 | 21:30 pm

March data on the Swiss Producer Price Index are due at 08:30 (GMT+2). The indicator records changes in the cost of goods, components and raw materials on the wholesale market and is one of the most important indicators of inflation. If it continues its negative trend from -2.0% on a monthly basis and from 0.1% on an annual basis, this will act as a driver for the decline in franc quotes. Read more

Tel aviv stocks and global sentiment amid Iran - Israel tensions

Apr 13, 2024 | 09:47 am

Technical analysis of Tel-Aviv stock market in times of tensions with IranIn an environment where geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly between Israel and Iran, investors are closely watching the TA-35, an index tracking the 35 largest companies on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. The TA-35 Index serves as a barometer of the economic pulse of Israel and, by extension, how the country is navigating the troubled waters of regional conflict.Important Note: The analysis provided herein is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.Who cares about Israel and Iran, I trade other stocks...We don't fully know why, but the Middle East tensions often play a role on global sentiment and equities, more than some people would expect. It is not only oil or other defense sector stocks, but other elusive sentiment waves ripplinig through financial media. I always wondered why Al Jazeera seems utterly obssesed with its focus on Israel as it seems that there is almost no other news in the world and Israel must always be the blame of every bad thing happening in this troubled region... Oh, how convenient. But whatever your views are, and God bless you, the geopolitical tensions do have at least a heavy sentiment factor on your stocks, too.Understanding the TA-35's technical outlookNo one knows what the future will bring. I sure don't. But I like to identify probable pattern continuations as happened in the past. For example, on certain timeframes, after a breakout, the price does not just continue to shoot up straight away, but declines to retest the breakout line/area. Or that bull flags, after being broken to the upside - are often retested in the future, and even more than once. The following daily chart of TA35 exhibits a bull flag pattern, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend upon a successful retest. Retesting of the pattern often validates the previous breakout, offering possible upcoming insights into market sentiment and when it may turn positive after being negative, if this happens... FOLLOW THIS POTENTIAL MAP AND WATCH FOR A REVERSAL AROUND 1830, IF IT GETS THERE. According to this scenario, the index tracking the 35 largest companies on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has got another 5 to 6 percent down before the reversal area. If the US stock market, especially Nasdaq futures, declines another 5 per cent or so with it, then both may then be ripe for an early bet to reverse up. It would be an early and interesting bet, even for the swing trader.Sectors under the microscopeDefense and securityExamples: Companies such as Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries, which may experience increased demand during times of heightened security concerns.EnergyExamples: Firms like Delek Drilling and Isramco Negev 2 LP, which could be affected by changes in global oil prices and energy demands.TechnologyExamples: Globally recognized names such as Check Point Software Technologies and Wix.com, which might face mixed impacts based on the global economic outlook.Watch the price of oilThe price of oil has historically been a sensitive indicator of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. Here are two examples that illustrate this relationship:1973 Oil Crisis:Event: The Yom Kippur War led Arab oil-producing nations to impose an embargo against the United States and other countries that supported Israel.Oil Price Response: Prices of oil quadrupled, from roughly $3 to $12 a barrel.Economic Impact: The crisis triggered a stock market crash and led to a global recession, with long lines at gas stations and severe economic disruptions worldwide.1990-1991 Gulf War:Event: Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 sparked immediate concern over the security of oil supplies.Oil Price Response: Crude oil prices doubled, with prices jumping from $15 to as high as $41 per barrel.Economic Impact: This price surge contributed to a recession in the early 1990s in the United States and other countries, illustrating the global economy's vulnerability to Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics.These examples underscore how regional tensions can rapidly alter the supply and perceived security of oil, thereby influencing global prices and economic stability.The provided technical analysis, including the forecasted path of the TA-35 index, serves as an opinion and a possible tool for investors, at their consideration, to gauge potential market movements. However, it's essential to combine such analysis with a comprehensive understanding of current events and their possible economic impacts. The graph chart of TA35 in this article is used to demonstrate the technical patterns discussed and is not indicative of future market movements. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views, opinions, news, and analyses. This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian dollar nears the lowest levels since November

Apr 12, 2024 | 12:19 pm

The Australian dollar is nearing the February low of 0.6443 as it rests just 14 pips above. AUD/USD traded as high as 0.6644 on Tuesday but traded down sharply on the hot US CPI report and has continued lower today as the dollar breaks higher against a number of currencies.Though much of the move is broad USD strength, the Australian dollar is particularly soft accounting to broader risk aversion. It's not benefiting from higher metals prices and improving China growth prospects but those are notable themes to watch.Ominously, both CAD and NZD are trading at the lowest levels since November. The commodity-driven trio tend to trade together so it may be a struggle for AUD to hold the Feb low. If it breaks, the November low was 0.6339 and the October low was 0.6270. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD up sharply on the week and runs away from broken resistance. What next?

Apr 12, 2024 | 09:42 am

The USDCAD is up sharply this week. The catalyst has been USD focused as the Fed moves away from 3 cuts and/or at least delaying the first cut. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 12, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes will be published. The weekly report records changes in oil production capacity in the United States. It rose to 508 units earlier, and a continuation of the trend will put pressure on oil prices. Read more

NZ dollar slips as manufacturing softens

Apr 12, 2024 | 06:02 am

The New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Friday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5956, down 0.68%. The US dollar has moved higher against the majors and NZD/USD has declined about 1% this week. NZ manufacturing PMI contracts for 13th straight month Manufacturing has been an Achilles heel for many of […]

Michigan consumer sentiment. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 12, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish April data on changes in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, based on a telephone survey of at least 500 American households and records of consumer spending that is part of economic activity. The value is expected to decrease from 79.4 points to 79.0 points, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Euro can’t find its footing after ECB pause

Apr 12, 2024 | 04:20 am

The euro continues to stumble and is down for a fourth straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0653, down 0.67%. The euro has fallen 1.7% this week as the US dollar continues to flex its muscles against the major currencies. ECB holds rates, hints at a June cut The European Central […]

US DJIA Technical: Major US banks’ Q1 earnings in the focus over adverse macro factors

Apr 12, 2024 | 02:57 am

Three major US banks; JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report their Q1 2024 earnings results today. JPMorgan Chase is ranked 13th in terms of component weightage in the DJIA. Analysts’ Q1 earnings estimates for these three US banks have been lowered which increases the possibility of positive earnings surprises. Technical analysis suggests a […]

Pound slips to 4.5-month low, UK GDP ticks higher

Apr 12, 2024 | 02:55 am

The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2594, down 0.47%. The pound is down 1.1% this week and fell to 1.2489 earlier today, its lowest point since November 23. UK economy ekes out a 0.1% gain It wasn’t a spectacular GDP report but a gain is […]

Industrial production. UK, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 11, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), February data on industrial production will be published in the UK. The indicator records changes in the volume of production of industrial goods and utilities in the country. The calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It is expected that it will be adjusted from 0.5% to 0.7% YoY and from –0.2% to 0.0% MoM. Read more

Gross domestic product. UK, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 11, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), February data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) will be published – the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy, taking into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. It is expected that it will decrease from 0.2% to 0.1% MoM and consolidate at –0.3% YoY. Read more

Consumer price index. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 11, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on the consumer price index in Germany will be published – a key indicator of inflation in the country, which reflects changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on, and has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. It is expected to remain at 0.4% MoM and to fall from 2.5% to 2.2% YoY, while the harmonized monthly rate may remain at 0.6% MoM and adjust from 2.7% to 2.3% YoY. Read more

Trade balance. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 11, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the UK will publish February trade balance data. It reflects the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. A local slowdown in negative dynamics from the current value of –14.52B pounds to –14.50B pounds is predicted, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Industrial production. Japan, 06:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 11, 2024 | 19:30 pm

At 06:30 (GMT+2), Japan will publish February industrial production data, which reflects the amount of manufactured goods and utilities produced in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electricity sector. The negative dynamics are expected to slow down from −6.7% to −0.1%, supporting the yen. Read more

Trade balance. China, 05:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 11, 2024 | 18:00 pm

At 05:00 (GMT+2), China will publish March trade balance data. This indicator records the difference between the payments for exported and imported goods. A decrease from 125.16B American dollars to 70.20B American dollars is predicted, putting pressure on the yuan. Read more

Electronic card retail sales. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 11, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), March data on the volume of retail sales made using electronic cards will be published in New Zealand. It is an important indicator of consumer spending in the country. The continuation of the downward trend from –1.8% MoM and 2.5% YoY will put pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Read more

Business PMI. New Zealand, 00:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 11, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:30 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish March data on the manufacturing business activity index. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. If the index rises from the current 47.3 points, supporting the New Zealand dollar. Read more

Australian dollar steadies after sharp slide

Apr 11, 2024 | 07:28 am

The Australian dollar has stabilized on Thursday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6524, up 0.19%. The Aussie plunged 1.75% a day earlier after US inflation accelerated and beat expectations. Fed expected to delay rate cut after hot US CPI US inflation has hit a bump, as March CPI accelerated to 3.5% […]

Canadian dollar gets spanked, BoC holds rates

Apr 11, 2024 | 05:07 am

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Thursday, after sliding 0.8% a day earlier. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3569, up 0.04%. BoC holds interest rates There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada, which maintained the cash rate at 5%. This marked a sixth straight pause as the BoC continues […]

Initial jobless claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 11, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will present data on the number of initial unemployment claims. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for the first time during the past week. Statistics are collected by the National Ministry of Labor and published in a weekly report. The number of benefit claims is used to measure the health of the employment sector, as an increase in the number means that fewer people are hired. A correction is expected from 221.0K to 217.0K. Read more

Euro stabilizes ahead of ECB decision

Apr 11, 2024 | 02:39 am

The euro is steady on Thursday, after sliding over 1% on Wednesday following the hot US inflation report. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0745, down 0.03%. ECB widely expected to hold rates The European Central Bank meets later today and is widely expected to hold the deposit rate at 4% for a […]

USD/JPY Technical: Rising US Treasury-JGB yield spreads outweigh BoJ’s intervention risk

Apr 11, 2024 | 02:35 am

A firmer March’s US CPI has altered the relative fundamentals narrative between the US & Japan. Reduces the risk of FX intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up a weaker JPY due to the lack of supporting fundamentals. The bullish reversal seen in the 10-year yield spread of the US Treasury over JGB may act […]

EUR/USD Outlook Ahead of ECB Main Refinancing Rate and Monetary Policy

Apr 10, 2024 | 21:07 pm

Talking Points European Central Bank – ECB US Consumer Price Index – US CPI EUR/USD Technical Analysis – Weekly Chart EUR/USD has been grappling with significant pressure over the past few weeks, caught between the influence of inflation data and the ongoing speculation on the USA and Euro Zone interest rate paths. Since January 1st, […]

Australian dollar slides on hot US inflation report

Apr 10, 2024 | 08:36 am

The Australian dollar has declined sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6515, down 1.7%. US inflation higher than expected at 3.5% The US consumer price index has accelerated for a second straight month. The March CPI rose 3.5%, up from 3.2% in February and above the market estimate of […]

Canadian dollar calm ahead of BoC decision

Apr 10, 2024 | 04:33 am

The Canadian dollar is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3559, down 0.09%. Bank of Canada expected to stay pat The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold the cash rate at 5.0% at today’s meeting. The BoC’s rate policy has been “higher for longer”, with policy makers […]

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