Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

Gold on pace to close at a record level today

Apr 19, 2024 | 10:34 am

The price of gold is on pace to close at a new record level today. A. How close level is $2832.30 on Monday, April 15. The low this week was on Monday at $2324.42. The point today at $2417.89 was the highest price for the week. The high intraday price was reached last Friday at $2431.78.For the tree week the price is currently up around 2.37%.Looking at the hourly chart below, the price action has been up and down this week, but the 200-hour MA has been a good job stalling the falls recently. It would take a move below that MA level - and staying below - to increase the bearish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Another flush lower in stocks

Apr 19, 2024 | 09:20 am

With key earnings being releases next week, the Nasdaq is flushing more to the downside. The NASDAQ index is now down -1.61% or -251 points at 15350.76.In the process, the price is running away from its 100 day moving average of 15489.71 and the 50% midpoint of the 2024 trading range at 15508.22. Bearish.Shares of Nvidia are breaking and falling away from the 50-day MA at 841.39. The price has not traded materially below the 50 day MA since November 2023. Next week, is pivotal with a number of large-cap stocks reporting including. Monday:VerizonSAPTuesday:GMTeslaVisaTexas InstrumentsWednesday:BoeingAT&TGeneral DynamicsMeta PlatformsIBMFordChipotleServiceNowThursday:American AirlinesCaterpillarSouthwest AirlinesBristol-Myers SquibbMicrosoftAlphabetIntelFridayExxon MobilChevron This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As London traders look to exit, the GBPUSD is pushing lower

Apr 19, 2024 | 08:42 am

As London traders look for the exits, the GBPUSD has rotated back to the downside. The price is currently trading at 1.2405. The low for the day was at 1.2388 reached shortly after the Israeli attack on Iran. That is also the low for the trading week.The subsequent bounce off of that low, took the price of the GBPUSD back up toward its 50% midpoint of the pair's move up from the October 2023 low at 1.24646. The high price today reached 1.2467 just above that midpoint level before rotating back to the downside over the last two hours of trading. Finding willing sellers nearly 50% midpoint, keeps the sellers more in control.The price of the GBPUSD has also moved back below an old swing area between 1.24278 and 1.24497. That also increases the bearish bias.What next?Get below the low for the day 1.2388 and traders will look toward the 61.8% retracement of the same move higher from the October 2023 low. That level comes in at 1.23635. Move below that level and sellers can probe even lowerWith the 50% midpoint holding resistance today, getting and staying above that level is now needed to disappoint the sellers/bears.Sellers are in control in the GBPUSD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZDUSD finds swing area support this week and also swing area resistance.

Apr 19, 2024 | 08:31 am

The NZDUSD has found a swing area support this week between 0.5851 and 0.58699. The trader also found swing area resistance at another swing area between 0.5933 and 0.5941. Those extremes helped to confined the ups and downs this week. Admittedly, with the price trading to new lows for the year and the lows going back to November, the sellers are more in control. However the support swing area held on three separate runts the downside, suggesting that buyers are interested at the area.In this video I take a look at the pair from a technical perspective and outline the key levels in play. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 19, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes will be published. The weekly report records changes in the amount of oil production capacity in the United States. The number of towers was last down to 506 units, and a continuation of this trend could support oil prices. Read more

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 19-22, 2024: sell below $2,395 (+2/8 Murray - overbought)

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:58 am

The weekly chart shows that gold maintains bullish momentum and has had strong gains for 10 consecutive weeks, but technically we are seeing an exhaustion of strength and it is likely that gold could fall in the coming days.Gold has formed a Japanese candlestick pattern that left a long wick and a small body which means that there are resistance levels that prevent gold from a further rise. So, a trend reversal could occur.Gold is showing signs of exhaustion and the outlook could be negative for the next few days if it trades below the psychological level of 2,400.On the weekly chart, we see a consolidation for two weeks around the 2,400 area. Having reached the high of 2,431, we can observe a technical correction and now gold has reached another one-week high at 2,417. Since then, the metal has been showing another consolidation. It means that we could be facing the possibility of a trend change in the next weeks.If gold consolidates above 2,400 in the coming days, then the bullish cycle could resume and the instrument could continue with its bullish potential and reach +2/8 Murray located at 2,500.Technically, there is a strong bullish trend in gold, but a significant technical correction should occur on the weekly chart since we have observed bullish closes for several weeks. It indicates a negative week outlook for the next few days, so we could expect the price to fall towards 2,250. At that point, the price could make a technical rebound.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NASDAQ index down another 1% today

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:50 am

The NASDAQ index is down near 1% in trading today. The tech heavy index is now down 6 straight trading days. Nvidia shares are down -3.03%. Amazon is down -1.49%. Meta Platforms is down -2.42%. Apple is down -1.06%. If you want to buy a dip, the market is dipping.The index is now down -4.35% for the week. That's the largest decline going back to March 6, 2023, when shares fell -4.71%. The Nasdaq is on pace for the 4th week in a row lower. The price has moved down around 6.76% from its all-time high.Technically, the price has traded below the 50% of the 2024 trading range at 15508.22, and also below its 100-day moving average of 15491.05. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading tips for novice traders on April 19th (US session)

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:47 am

Deal Analysis and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenNo tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day prevented entry into the market. Yes, the dollar reacted with a decline to news of reduced pricing pressure in Japan. Still, buyers quickly absorbed all downward movement and again stalled around the weekly high, as if wary of actions by the Bank of Japan, which are unlikely to be expected by the end of the week. Since there are no statistics in the second half of the day, nor are there any planned speeches by Federal Reserve representatives, trading will continue in a low volatility and volume channel. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 154.68 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 155.19 (thicker green line). I will exit purchases around 155.19 and open sales in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's rise today is unlikely to materialize. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.36 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the upward market. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 154.68 and 155.19.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 154.36 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 153.81, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful breakthrough of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.68 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.36 and 153.81.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument; Thick green line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument; Thick red line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, following overbought and oversold zones is important.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 19th (US session)

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:42 am

Analysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the British PoundThe test of the 1.2424 price level in the first half coincided with the moment the MACD indicator began its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points, and that was it. News that retail sales volume in the UK in March of this year remained unchanged compared to the previous month did not exert significant pressure on the pound. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase. All this indicates that the weak economic recovery will continue, eventually forcing the Bank of England to lower interest rates. Unfortunately, there are no US statistics in the second half of the day, nor are there any planned speeches by Federal Reserve representatives, which may keep trading within a narrow range with a slight advantage for buyers. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.2454 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.2486 (thicker green line). I will exit purchases around 1.2486 and open sales in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction from the level). The pound's growth can be expected as part of the upward correction, but a strong movement is unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2422 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the upward market. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.2454 and 1.2486.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.2422 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2391, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves against the backdrop of the lack of buyer activity around the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2454 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2422 and 1.2391.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument. Thick green line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument. Thick red line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator. When entering the market, following overbought and oversold zones is important.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 19th (US session)

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:34 am

Trade Analysis and Tips on Trading the European CurrencyThe price test at 1.0646 in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the buy signal for the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points, and that was it. Market attention disregarded news on German producer prices, allowing the euro to continue its recovery after a major sell-off observed during the Asian session. Unfortunately, no statistics are planned for the second half of the day, and there are no scheduled speeches by Fed representatives, which may keep trading within a sideways channel with a slight advantage for buyers. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0664 (green line on the chart), with the target to rise to 1.0698. At 1.0698, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Today, the rise in the euro can only be expected with a small upward correction. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0639 at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0664 and 1.0698.Sell SignalScenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching 1.0639 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0615, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity around the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0664 at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0639 and 1.0615.What's on the chart:Thin green line – entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought. Thick green line – the expected price, where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold. Thick red line – the expected price, where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 19th (analysis of morning deals). The pound is trying to regain its advantage

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:27 am

In my morning forecast, I focused on the level of 1.2437 and planned to make decisions based on it for market entry. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The breakout and subsequent retest of this range from top to bottom led to a buy signal, resulting in the pair rising by only 15 points, after which everything ended. In the second half of the day, the technical picture remained unchanged.To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Data on retail sales, which turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts, did not particularly affect the British pound in the first half of the day. Considering that there are no significant statistics during the American session, it is unlikely to expect a strong continuation of the pair's upward correction. A lot will depend on the behavior of traders at the level of 1.2437, where, analogous to the first half of the day, the formation of a false breakout will provide an entry point for buying to rise to resistance at 1.2482, which we still haven't reached. A breakout and retest of this range from top to bottom will strengthen the chance of a GBP/USD recovery, leading to new purchases and allowing us to reach 1.2532. If there is a breakout above this range, we can discuss a surge to 1.2575, where I plan to profit. In the scenario of a GBP/USD decline and the absence of buyers at 1.2437 in the second half of the day, sellers will have a chance for a larger decline in the pair's trend. In this case, I will look for purchases around 1.2389. Forming a false breakout will be a suitable option for market entry. I plan to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from 1.2340, with a correction target of 30-35 points within the day.To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:The chances of the pound falling remain. But before that, I would like to see how sellers behave at the nearest resistance level of 1.2482, where a false breakout will provide a suitable entry point for selling in an attempt to push down the middle of the sideways channel at 1.2437, which was successfully missed in the first half of the day. A breakout and retest from bottom to top of 1.2437 will pressure the pair, giving bears an advantage and another entry point for selling to update to 1.2389. The ultimate target will be a minimum of 1.2340, where I will take a profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD rising and the absence of bears at 1.2482 in the second half of the day, which is unlikely, bulls will have an opportunity to build a fairly good correction at the end of the week with an upward movement to the resistance area at 1.2532. I will also consider short positions there only on a false breakout. If there is no activity, I suggest opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2575, expecting the pair to rebound downwards by 30-35 points within the day.The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 9 showed a sharp reduction in long and short positions. Pound buyers left the market faster than sellers, and there are objective reasons for this: the first and main reason is high inflationary pressure in the United States, which will maintain demand for the dollar, exerting serious pressure on risky assets, including the British pound. The second reason is the soft policy of the Bank of England, which has yet to go anywhere. New statements by regulator representatives may negatively affect the bullish prospects of the pound – especially after the clear position of the ECB last week, which consisted of rate cuts in the eurozone as early as this summer. In addition to all this, there is a need to maintain a tough stance from the Federal Reserve, and it is unlikely that we can expect a strong bullish market in the GBP/USD pair. The latest COT report states that long non-commercial positions decreased by 18,352 to 80,000, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 3,190 to 51,748. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,704.Indicator signals:Moving averages:Trading is carried out around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.Bollinger Bands:In cases of decline, the lower boundary of the indicator will act as support around 1.2390.Description of the indicators: • Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow. • Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked on the chart in green. • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9. • Bollinger Bands: Period 20. • Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements. • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 19th (analysis of morning deals). The euro compensated for the losses

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:18 am

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.0650 level and planned to decide to enter the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The growth and formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.0686 led to a sell signal, which was never fully realized. After moving down by 5 points, the pair returned to 1.0650, where trading is currently underway. In the afternoon, the technical picture changed only slightly.To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:The lack of important statistics on the eurozone allowed the euro to recover some losses observed during the Asian session. However, as expected, the movement failed to develop into a major uptrend. Given that we don't have any US statistics ahead, trading will likely continue around the 1.0650 level with low volume and low volatility. I will act in case the pair drops to the area of 1.0645. In forming a false breakout, there will be a suitable option for purchases in the expectation of another attempt to grow to 1.0688, which could not be done in the first half of the day. A breakout and a top-down update of this range will strengthen the pair with a chance of a breakthrough to 1.0726. The farthest target will be a maximum of 1.0754, where I will record profits. With the option of a decrease in EUR/USD and a lack of activity in the area of 1.0645, where the moving averages playing on the buyers' side are slightly higher, the pressure on the euro will return within the bearish trend. In this case, I will enter the market only after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of the next support of 1.0605. I will open long positions immediately for a rebound from 1.0569 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:Even despite the correction of the pair, euro sellers have every chance of further decline. To do this, it would be nice for them to regain control of 1.0645, but the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0688 is also suitable, which would be an ideal scenario for entering short positions with the prospect of updating the support of 1.0645. A breakout and consolidation below this range and a reverse bottom-up test will give another selling point with the pair moving to the 1.0605 area, which will return the bearish trend. I expect a more active manifestation of large buyers there. The farthest target will be a minimum of 1.0569, where I will record profits. In case of an upward movement of EUR/USD in the afternoon and the absence of bears at 1.0688, the bulls will try to continue the correction. In such a case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0726. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0754 with a 30-35 point downward correction target.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 9th, there was a reduction in both long and short positions. The European Central Bank meeting, the soft tone of policymakers, and a significant drop in the euro that followed indicate the problems that risk asset buyers are experiencing and will continue to experience. Considering that the Federal Reserve's position will remain tight for a longer period, there is no need to expect a return of demand for the euro yet. For this reason, I am betting on further development of the bullish trend in the US dollar and a decline in the euro. The COT report indicates that non-commercial long positions fell by 12,839 to 175,419, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 28,768 to 142,696. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,451.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1, which differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.0620, will act as support.Description of indicators:• Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.• Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12, Slow EMA period 26, SMA period 9.• Bollinger Bands: Period 20.• Non-commercial traders - speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.• The net non-commercial position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro edges higher, ECB eyes June cut

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:14 am

Euro recovers after dip The euro fell as much as 0.30% earlier but has recovered and edged higher. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0666, up 0.21%. The euro remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. Last week, EUR/USD fell 1.8% and dropped as low as 1.0601 this week, its lowest […]

USDCHF falls sharply and rebound sharply on Isreal's retaliation. What next?

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:49 am

The USDCHF fell sharply after the Israeli attack on Iran overnight. That move to the downside tested the broken 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2022 high at 0.9025, and bounced as report of the extent of the attack were reported. The subsequent reversal to the upside so the pair moved back up to target resistance at 0.9095 and find willing sellers. The pair has defined its technical trading range. In this video I outline the moves and the technical levels in play and explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:14 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.18; (P) 154.43; (R1) 154.90; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering divergence condition in 4H MACD upside should be limited by 155.20 fibonacci projection level. On the downside, below 153.58 will turn bias to the […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:13 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9095; (P) 0.9110; (R1) 0.9140; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 0.9151 could extend. But further rally is expected with 0.8996 support intact. Break of 0.9151 will resume larger rally from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8996 will confirm short term topping, […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart your FX trading for April 19 w/ a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:10 am

There is increased volatility after Israel's retaliation against the Iran's weekends drone attack. The EURUSD and GBPUSD moved lower (higher USD) initially, but has since rebounded. The USDJPY fell on flight into the relative safety of the JPY initially after the report, but as stocks have rebounded so has the USDJPY.In this video I take a look at the technicals that are driving the three major currency pairs. In it, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and outline bias and risk defining levels in play. It is Friday, the calendar is void of any economic data. Focus will be on the headlines and any weekend risk for retaliation. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:10 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2418; (P) 1.2452; (R1) 1.2469; More… GBP/USD recovered after brief dip to 1.2388 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance. Below 1.2388 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to 100% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:46 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0626; (P) 1.0658; (R1) 1.0675; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Storm in a teacup: EUR/USD analysis

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:42 am

During the Asian session on Friday, the euro/dollar pair sharply fell to the 1.0600 area, coming under pressure from reports that Israel had carried out strikes against Iran. The dollar regained strength amid risk-off sentiments but not for long. However, it became clear that World War III was once again postponed: the parties moderately commented on the overnight events. For instance, the Israeli military stated they had no comments at that time. Iran also refuted the sensational media reports that claimed the IDF had struck the country's nuclear facilities. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the loud sounds in Isfahan were related to the shooting of air defense systems at a suspicious object. It is unclear what these objects were and who was behind them. The IAEA in turn stated that Iran's nuclear facilities were not attacked. State Iranian media also claimed that the country's cities were not hit by any foreign state. Most American media admitted that an attack did indeed occur and was carried out by Israel, but also acknowledged that the response was very limited in nature. According to Reuters, an immediate Iranian response will not follow, as "it is currently unclear who was behind the attack." For now, the situation is not unfolding according to the worst-case scenario. Both sides are showing restraint and not aiming for further escalation. Therefore, risk-off sentiments in the markets sharply weakened. The dollar slid and EUR/USD sellers failed to test the 1.0500 area. In other words, we witnessed a sort of "storm in a teacup": the dollar showcased a short-lived steep rally but failed to cement its gains. The macroeconomic calendar is bereft of any important news releases. The reports released this week are mostly of secondary importance, and Federal Reserve officials are merely confirming the already-played fact that the central bank will not cut interest rates at the June meeting. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams – one of the most influential Fed officials – said that there's no rush to lower interest rates as the benchmark interest rate is in a "good place," moving inflation down gradually. Moreover, when asked about the prospects for a rate hike, he said he would never say never. Jerome Powell voiced a similar position (though he did not discuss a rate hike). According to him, the latest macroeconomic reports show no progress in combating inflation. Therefore, it will take "longer than expected" to achieve the confidence needed to get inflation down to the central bank's 2% target. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who had anticipated only one rate cut this year before the release of inflation data, said yesterday that central bankers would need to consider an interest-rate hike if inflation does not continue to move toward the Fed's 2% goal. Meanwhile, ECB representatives continue to signal a rate cut at the June meeting. Christine Lagarde stated that the regulator will cut rates in June, provided there are no "surprises." Her position was almost verbatim echoed by ECB Vice-President Francois Villeroy and Robert Holzmann, the head of Austria's central bank. Regarding macroeconomic reports, the situation also favors EUR/USD sellers. For instance, the weekly figure for initial unemployment claims remains at a relatively low level (212,000), reflecting a tight labor market, while US industrial production rose by 0.4% (marking positive dynamics for the second consecutive month), and the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing activity index (covering Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware) unexpectedly jumped in April to a two-year high of 15.5 points, against a modest growth forecast of just 1.4. Such statistics have dampened the market's dovish expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in June is now only 18%. However, market participants have already priced in this fundamental factor (which is why the EUR/USD pair fell to the 1.0600 area). To extend losses, the pair needs another driving force in the form of any news report. The prospects for a Fed rate hike (as well as maintaining the status quo throughout 2024) seem vague. Therefore, the pair is likely to drift around the 1.0600 mark in the medium term. At the same time, it must be acknowledged that these fundamental factors do not facilitate a sustainable rise in the EUR/USD pair. The Fed is voicing moderately hawkish signals, while the European Central Bank continues to assure the markets that it is ready to lower interest rates early in the summer. In such circumstances, it makes sense to consider short positions when corrective surges wane. From a technical perspective, according to the D1 chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as below all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which demonstrates a bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. The support level is at 1.0600, corresponding to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The CHF is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:11 am

The CHF is the strongest (flight to safety) and the NZD is the weakest (risk off)as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed with the greenback losing -0.34% vs the CHF and gaining +0.25% vs the NZD. Other than that, the major currencies are within 0.14% of the closing levels from yesterday to start the trading day with the EUR, GBP, JPY and CAD trading near unchanged in the US morning snapshot. The modest moves come despite Israel's limited retaliatory strike against Iran following Iran's significant drone and missile attack on its territory last weekend. The Israel response targeted the Isfahan area in central Iran, where nuclear facilities and an air base are located. Despite reports of explosions and the activation of air-defense systems across Iranian provinces, Iranian state media downplayed the incident, indicating no substantial damage or disruptions at nuclear sites. Reports are that the U.S. was informed of the attack just before its launch, but was not involved. This action by Israel seemed aimed at avoiding a larger conflict escalation and Iran's reaction has so far been limited, which has investors hoping the conflict tension is over. US stocks have moved lower in overnight trading on the back of the Israel strike, but has rebounded from the lowest levels. The Dow futures implied a decline of over 300 points but is now down about -60 points now. The S&P is on pace for its 3rd weekly decline. The Nasdaq index is on pace for its 4th straight weekly decline and given the premarket decline, on pace to the worst week since March 2023. After the close yesterday, Netflix beat earnings and revenues expectations, and also showed strong new customer numbers, but the stock is still down over around -5.5% in pre-market trading as investors worry about the future. The company announced they would stop reporting membership numbers starting Q1 2025 and projected revenues lower than analysts expectation for the current quarter - both are not sitting well with investors. The major earnings today, are not impressing investors:American Express Co AXPEPS: 3.33 reported vs. 2.95 expected – BEATRevenue: 15.8 billion reported vs. 15.79 billion expected – BEATShares are trading down -1.15% in premarket tradingProcter & Gamble Co PGCore EPS: 1.52 reported vs. 1.41 expected – BEATRevenue: 20.2 billion reported vs. 20.41 billion expected – MISSEDShares are trading down -4.14% in premarket tradingSchlumberger SLBEPS: 0.75 reported vs. 0.75 expected – METRevenue: 8.71 billion reported vs. 8.69 billion expected – BEATShares are trading down -1.45% premarket trainingNext week is a key release week with Tesla,Visa, Boeing, Meta, IBM, Ford, Chipotle, Intel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Exonn Mobile and Chevron all scheduled to report. As for today, there are no key economic releases scheduled in Canada or the US. Today is the last day before the quiet period starts for the Fed ahead of their May 1 interest-rate decision.A Reuters poll released overnight, indicated that while no economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates before the end of June 2024, there is some anticipation of rate hikes later in the year. Specifically, 21 out of 61 economists predict a rate increase in the third quarter, and 17 out of 55 foresee it in the fourth quarter of 2024. The consensus median forecast places the upper end of the overnight call rate at 0.25% in the fourth quarter, where it is expected to remain until late 2025.In a more detailed breakdown from a subset of 36 economists, 19% predict a BOJ rate hike in July 2024, but the majority, about 36%, anticipate this will happen in October 2024. Another 31% believe the rate increase will occur in 2025 or later.Meanwhile, ECBs Simkus said that it is possible the ECB will lower rates three or four times and rate cuts could be back to back. A number of ECB officials indicated that they are focused on June for a rate cut, but add the caveat that it is still being data dependent. They are also chirping that the ECB is not Fed dependent.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $-0.48 or -0.58% at $81.62. At this time yesterday, the price was at $81.67. The high price overnight reached up to $85.64.Gold is trading down -$2.50 or -0.10% at $2376.02. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2382.41. It's high price reached up to $2417.89, before rotating back to the downside.Silver is trading down -$0.13 or -0.49% at $28.07. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.43. It's high price overnight reached as high as $28.93Bitcoin currently trades at $65,051 which is well off the low at $59,629 and after the reports of the strike by Israel. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,800In the premarket, the US major indices are trading mostly lower:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a fall of -61 points. Yesterday, the index rose 22.07 points or 0.06% at 37775.39S&P futures are implying a fall of -7.37 points. Yesterday, the index fell -11.11 points or -0.22% at 5011.11Nasdaq futures are implying a fall of -45.23 points. Yesterday, the index fell -81.87 points or -0.52% at 15601.50The European indices are trading lower ahead of the US open:German DAX, -0.65%France CAC , -0.17%UK FTSE 100, -0.83%Spain's Ibex, -0.55%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.15% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were lower after the Israeli attack on IranJapan's Nikkei 225, -2.66%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.29%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.99%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.98%Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading lower:2-year yield 4.966%, -2.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.931%5-year yield 4.639%, -4.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.615%10-year yield 4.589%, -5.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.584%30-year yield 4.687%, -5.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.699%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads moved more inverted:The 2-10 year spread is at -37.6[…]

USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI eases

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:54 am

The Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s core CPI falls to 2.6% Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down […]

Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Sees Volatility - 19 April 2024

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:51 am

The WTI crude oil market has initially fell during the trading session here on Thursday, but then turned around as we bounced from the 50 day EMA.

USDCAD Technical Analysis - Key levels to watch for a pullback

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:47 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. CADThe BoC left interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains intact.The latest Canadian CPI came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measures eased further.On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is something that the BoC is watching closely.The Canadian Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the measures remain in contractionary territory. The market expects the first rate cut in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD pulled back into the blue 8 moving average and bounced as the buyers stepped in to position for a rally into new highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and even better around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as they will also find the confluence of the previous resistance now turned support. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that besides the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, we can also find a trendline adding confluence around the 1.37 handle. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and target a drop into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of a weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. The price broke below the trendline support, so we have higher chances to see a drop all the way down to the major trendline. We have a black counter-trendline acting as resistance now, so if the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in to position for a drop into the major trendline. If the price were to break to the upside though, the buyers will likely pile in to position for a rally into new highs. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie Dollar Continues to See Resistance Above - 19 April 2024

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:42 am

The Australian dollar has tested the 0.6450 level early on Thursday, but it looks as if it's going to struggle to continue going higher.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: NASDAQ 100 Continues to Look for Support - 19 April 2024

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:34 am

The NASDAQ 100 went back and forth early during the trading session on Thursday.

Gold Forecast: Gold Continues to Work off Froth - 19 April 2024

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:28 am

Gold has done a little bit of sideways dancing during the early hours on Thursday just as we have seen it do all week.

USD/JPY Forecast: The US Dollar Continues to Pressure Resistance - 19 April 2024

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:22 am

The dollar has recovered after initially falling down a bit against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday as we continue to see the buy on the dip mentality come into the picture.

Video market update for April 19, 2024

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:00 am

Potential for the further drop on NAS100The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. April 19th. Bostic, Fed: the rate cut will happen at the end of the year

Apr 19, 2024 | 03:46 am

The EUR/USD pair on Thursday rose almost to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0696) but still stopped slightly below. It made a turnaround in favor of the US currency and returned to the Fibonacci level of 127.2% (1.0619). A rebound from this level will work in favor of the European currency and lead to new growth towards the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0696). If the pair's rate remains below the level of 1.0619, the likelihood of further decline towards the next Fibonacci level of 1.0519 will increase. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed upward wave failed to surpass the peak of the previous wave (from March 21st), while the last downward wave broke the last low (from April 2nd). Thus, we are currently dealing with a "bearish" trend, and at the moment there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave (which could have started forming the day before yesterday) must surpass the peak of the previous wave (from April 9th). Or the next downward wave (which has yet to start) fails to break the last low from April 16th.The information background on Thursday was very weak, but some data still reached traders. In particular, in the evening, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic spoke, stating that current inflation in the US is too high to consider easing monetary policy. Bostic also mentioned that inflation will return to 2%, much slower than the market expected. According to him, there is nothing bad or dangerous for the Fed to do to maintain patience regarding rate cuts. The regulator may move to ease monetary policy at the end of the year, and under certain circumstances, it may also consider additional tightening of monetary policy. In my opinion, Bostic overshadowed even Powell's speech this week. If Powell suggested not expecting easing in June, Bostic openly stated that it should be expected by the end of the year. And the Fed has yet to rule out a rate hike completely. On the 4-hour chart, the pair fell to the corrective level of 23.6%-1.0644 and consolidated below it. However, two "bullish" divergences on the CCI indicator and the RSI indicator dropping below 20 worked in favor of the EU currency and initiated growth towards the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0765). If the quotes consolidate below the level of 1.0644 again, it will once again allow counting on a decline towards the next corrective level of 0.0%–1.0450.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:During the last reporting week, speculators closed 12839 long contracts and 28768 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group remains "bullish" but continues to weaken rapidly. The total number of long contracts held by speculators is now 175 thousand, and short contracts - 142 thousand. The situation will continue to change in favor of bears. In the second column, we can see that the number of short positions increased from 92 thousand to 142 thousand over the past 3 months. Over the same period, the number of long positions decreased from 211 thousand to 175 thousand. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong information background to resume the "bullish" trend. I don't see such a perspective in the near future.News Calendar for the US and the European Union:On April 19th, the economic events calendar contains a few interesting entries. The impact of the news background on traders' sentiment today will be absent.Forecast for EUR/USD and Trader Advice:Selling the pair is possible today if it consolidates below the level of 1.0619 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0519. Buying the euro currency can be considered today on a rebound from the level of 1.0619 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0696.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 19, 2024 | 03:41 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite ended another day negative with the buyers struggling to find some footing. It could have been a mix of hawkish Fed’s Williams comments where he didn’t rule out a rate hike if the data called for such a move, and some jitteriness due to some rumours of an Israeli retaliation in the following 24/48 hours. Tonight, Israel did retaliate as it carried out airstrikes on Iran, but eventually it was seen as a limited retaliation with even Iran downplaying it. This might finally put this thing behind our backs, and we could see some positive risk sentiment today. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite is now getting very close to the key 15453 level. We can also notice that the price got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got overstretched on this timeframe as well. If we were to get a final push into the 15453 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally back into the 15929 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 15162. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the red 21 moving average for confluence. If we get another pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and position for a rally into the 15929 level. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Forecast for GBP/USD pair on April 19, 2024

Apr 19, 2024 | 03:37 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed another reversal this week in favor of the US currency and a slight drop towards the level of 1.2370 on Thursday. Today, a reversal was made in favor of the British dollar, and the growth process began in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0%–1.2464. The 1.2464 level has been ignored by traders all week, and I do not expect good signals to form around it. The horizontal direction of movement has been maintained throughout the current week. The situation with the waves still does not raise any questions. The last completed upward wave failed to break through the last peak (from March 21), and the last downward wave broke through the low of the previous wave (from April 1). Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are no signs of its completion. The first sign of the bulls going on the offensive may be a breakdown of the peak from April 9, but the bulls need to cover a distance of about 280 points to the 1.2705–1.2715 zone, which is unlikely to happen in the near future. At the moment, even the last downward wave has not completed its construction to talk about the strength of the pullback.There were practically no important economic publications yesterday. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was 212K, with a forecast of 215K, and the number of new homes sold was 4.19M, with traders' expectations of 4.2M. These data did not cause any reaction from traders and did not support either bulls or bears. Today, a report on retail trade was released in the UK, the volume of which did not change compared to February, an increase of 0%. Traders expected a higher value. Despite this, the pound grows in the morning, which is not surprising in the conditions of the sideways. With horizontal movement, bulls and bears are in relative equilibrium, constantly pulling the rope in their own direction. We also see a picture of a "nervous tick" on the charts when the pair constantly changes direction of movement, remaining in the same zone. On the 4-hour chart, the pair performed a reversal in favor of the British after the formation of two "bullish" divergences at the CSI indicator. Thus, the growth process may continue for some time in the direction of the 1.2620 level. The downward trend corridor characterizes the current mood of traders as "bearish," which allows us to expect new bear attacks. Bulls can only count on a small increase within the channel.Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:The mood of the "non-commercial" category of traders has become less "bullish" over the last reporting week. The number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased by 18,352 units, and the number of short contracts decreased by 3,190 units. The general mood of the major players remains bullish but has been weakening in recent weeks. The gap between the number of long and short contracts is already less than twofold: 80 thousand versus 52 thousand.In my opinion, the prospects for a fall remain in front of the British pound, but over the past 3 months, the number of long has increased from 61 thousand to 80 thousand, and the number of short has practically not changed. I believe that over time, the bulls will begin to get rid of buy positions since all possible factors of buying the British pound have already been worked out. The bears have shown their weakness and complete unwillingness to go on the offensive in the last few months, but the US inflation report could give them confidence and strength.News calendar for the USA and the UK:United Kingdom – Change in retail trade volumes (06:00 UTC).On Friday, the calendar of economic events contains one entry that has already become available to traders. The influence of the information background on the market mood today will be absent for the rest of the day.GBP/USD forecast and tips for traders:I don't see any potential signals for British sales today. Purchases are more interesting today, but the British dollar's growth potential is limited, the information background is weak, and traders have been ignoring the 1.2464 level for several days in a row. I think today is not the best day to search for trading signals.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD edges higher after flat retail sales

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:35 am

The British pound dipped 0.30% earlier today but has managed to recover the losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2451, up 0.12%. Retail sales misses estimate The UK release retail sales were flat in March, after a revised 0.1% gain in February and missing the market estimate of 0.3%. Fuel sales were […]

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:25 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. NZDThe RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged as expected with no change as the central bank continues to state that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.The labour market report beat expectations across the board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth. The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in expansion. The market expects the first cut in August.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD is struggling to break below the key support zone around the 0.5870 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally into the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the low at 0.5780, although they will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a spike lower tonight following the news of Israeli retaliation against Iran but the market faded the move completely as Iran downplayed the airstrikes. We can also notice that we have a strong divergence with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a bigger reversal, and it might even end up being a double bottom with the major trendline as the target. In fact, the buyers will likely increase the bullish bets into the major trendline if the price were to break above the neckline at 0.5933. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the divergence with the MACD which has been going on since the 0.60 handle. We can also notice that we have a minor resistance zone around the 0.59 handle where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a break below the key support zone. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 19, 2024 | 01:06 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Japanese CPI came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY got stuck in some consolidation just beneath the 155.00 handle as the market might be awaiting some new catalyst to push into new highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance now turned support where we can also find the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the next major trendline around the 146.00 handle. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another trendline where the buyers can lean onto in case of a pullback where they will also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the 151.92 support zone and then target a break below it.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the rangebound price action between the 153.90 support and the 154.80 resistance. We got a spike lower tonight following the Israeli retaliation against Iran, but the move was completely erased as Iran downplayed the airstrikes. We might now continue to see the market playing the range with selling pressure around the resistance and buying pressure around the support until we get a catalyst for a breakout. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 19

Apr 19, 2024 | 00:50 am

Overview of yesterday's trading and tips on EUR/USDThe price test of 1.0667 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell by more than 25 pips, but the pair only reached the target of 1.0633 during the Asian session. Yesterday, the market completely ignored the European Central Bank's report on balance of payments, but the euro fell after the labor market data, and the dollar rose, as the market increasingly believed that the Federal Reserve would maintain a tough stance after yesterday's speeches of the FOMC members. Today, we are waiting for the German producer price index. But whatever the figures are, the market is unlikely to react strongly to this report. I expect the pair to fall further along the trend with the prospect of updating the monthly low. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No 1. Today you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0646 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0686. At the level of 1.0686, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today on the condition of good eurozone data. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0629 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0646 and 1.0686.Sell signalsScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0629 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0602, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0646 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0629 and 1.0602.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 19

Apr 19, 2024 | 00:50 am

Overview of yesterday's trading and tips on GBP/USDThe price test of 1.2460 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator sharply went down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound, although the signal looked very promising. As you can see on the chart, after falling by 15 pips, the pressure on the pound has eased. Yesterday's lack of important data had a bad effect on the pound. Today, the UK retail sales figures will be released, which may only partially influence the market direction. If the vaues coincides with economists' forecasts, the pound will probably ignore the data and the pressure on the pair will return by the afternoon. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the entry point at 1.2424 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2468 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2468, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the pound's growth today only after strong retail sales data. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2401 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2424 and 1.2468.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after the level of 1.2401 has been tested (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2353, where I am going to close short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound after the pair fails to consolidate near the local high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2424 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2401 and 1.2353.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 19

Apr 19, 2024 | 00:50 am

Overview of yesterday's trading and tips on USD/JPYThe price test of 154.60 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator sharply went up from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, although the US labor market data was more than suitable for this - the dollar was near the annual high at that moment. Today, the dollar sharply fell after Japan's inflation data was released. Despite this, the bulls were quick to buy on dips, which indicates their high interest in the market and a rather big chance for the pair to strengthen further along the trend. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point at 154.60 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 155.19 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 155.19, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today based on the trend after breaking through the daily high. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 154.24 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 154.60 and 155.19.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 154.24 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 153.64, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return after an unsuccessful breakout of the daily high and active actions by the central bank. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 154.60 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.24 and 153.64.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 19, 2024

Apr 19, 2024 | 00:03 am

Instead of continuing the correction, the dollar strengthened again, and the market returned to levels it was at just a couple of days ago. The greenback emerged after Federal Reserve officials delivered statements regarding interest rates. Once again, there were mentions of the possibility of rate hikes. However, more importantly, there was no hint about the possibility of easing monetary policy. Most likely, this is what caused the euro to return to its lowest values since the beginning of 2024.But now all of this takes a back seat. And quite suddenly at that. Because Israel launched a missile strike on Iran overnight from Thursday to Friday. So far, there are very few details about this. However, in any case, we are talking about further escalation of tension in the Middle East. And the region's slide into a full-scale war has become quite real. From the market's perspective, the situation is extremely complicated. On the one hand, a potential war in the world's major oil-producing region will trigger panic in the markets, primarily in the stock markets, and a flight to safe-haven assets. This, of course, should boost the US dollar, as American investment funds control a large portion of the world's financial capital. In addition, the situation is unfolding right next to the European Union, which should also lead to additional capital flight from risk, specifically to the United States. Because there's nowhere else to go. However, as mentioned earlier, we're talking about the world's largest oil-producing region, which has already led to a sharp rise in oil prices. And there's an inverse correlation between oil and the dollar, which often manifests precisely in moments of significant changes. Moreover, if a full-scale war involving Israel breaks out, the United States will automatically be drawn into this conflict. This clearly does not align with Washington's current interests, as its resources are already stretched to the limit. And this is another factor that will weaken the US dollar.Considering all of this, the market is likely to adopt a wait-and-see stance and closely monitor the official statements from Tehran, Tel Aviv, and Washington. Geopolitics will determine the further course of events. At this point, it is extremely difficult to make forecasts, especially given the absence of clear information. But in general, things will likely develop in one of two main directions. If Iran decides to ease tensions, the markets will revive, and the dollar will probably strengthen considerably. If the situation escalates further, anything could happen. This includes both the fall and the rise of the US dollar. The EUR/USD corrective phase ended as quickly as it started. The US dollar's recovery, along with a strong flow of information, returned the price to the support level of 1.0600.On the four-hour chart, the RSI downwardly crossed the 50 middle line, thus reflecting bearish sentiment among traders.On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs indicate a downward cycle.OutlookIn order to increase the volume of short positions, the price must settle below the level of 1.0600. In this case, the pair could move towards the local low of 2023. Conversely, the area around the 1.0600 level may act as support, leading to a rebound.Complex indicator analysis indicates a downward cycle in the short- and long-term timeframes.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 23:31 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.90; (P) 192.34; (R1) 192.77; More.. GBP/JPY is still bounded in established range despite today’s volatility. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 189.97 support will indicate that it’s at least correcting the rise from […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 23:27 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.32; (P) 164.64; (R1) 164.91; More… Range trading continues in EUR/JPY despite huge volatility. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.26 support will argue that it’s at least correcting the rise from […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 23:25 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8549; (P) 0.8560; (R1) 0.8570; More… Outlook in EUR/GBP remains unchanged as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 0.8529 support will argue that the corrective recovery from 0.8497 has completed at 0.8601. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 23:23 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6542; (P) 1.6573; (R1) 1.6607; More… EUR/AUD’s rally from 1.6368 resumed after brief consolidations. Breach of 1.6677 resistance argues that fall from 1.6742 has completed as a three-wave corrective move to 1.6368. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.6742. On the downside, below 1.6534 support will turn intraday bias […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9690; (P) 0.9713; (R1) 0.9732; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is back on the downside as fall from 0.9847 resumed. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9847 at 0.9620 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9479. On the upside, though, break of 0.9721 minor resistance will turn bias […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:57 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0626; (P) 1.0658; (R1) 1.0675; More… Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:57 pm

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. EURThe ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected and opened the door for a rate cut in June.The recent Eurozone CPI missed expectations.The labour market remains historically tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.The latest Eurozone PMIs beat expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping further in contraction.The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke the key 1.07 support and extended the drop into the 1.06 handle as the divergence between the Fed and the ECB became stronger. The pair this week pulled back to retest the broken support now turned resistance and fell back to the lows as we got a hawkish Fed’s Williams comment and the Israeli strike against Iran tonight. The sellers will want to see the price breaking the lows to increase the bearish bets into the 1.05 support zone, while the buyers will look for a break above the 1.07 resistance to start targeting the 1.10 handle. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price diverged with the MACD around the 1.06 handle, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got a pullback into the 1.07 resistance zone before another drop as the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to target new lows. The buyers might want to pile in around the lows to position for a rally back into the resistance targeting a break above it. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the pair getting near the lows. Iran downplayed the Israeli strike tonight, so we might put this geopolitical event behind our backs. The market could react with some positive risk sentiment today, so the buyers might try to position for a rally back into the resistance. A break below the low though would invalidate the bullish setup and likely trigger more selling. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:55 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2418; (P) 1.2452; (R1) 1.2469; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the downside as fall from 1.2892 resumes. Deeper decline would be seen to 100% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2354. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.2207 next. On the upside, above 1.2483 resistance […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:40 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9095; (P) 0.9110; (R1) 0.9140; More…. While USD/CHF’s pull back from 0.9151 extended lower, down side is supported above 0.8996 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally is expected. Break of 0.9151 will resume larger rally from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8996 will confirm short […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:37 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.18; (P) 154.43; (R1) 154.90; More… USD/JPY’s correction from 154.77 extended lower to 153.58 but recovered just ahead of 55 4H EMA (now at 153.56). Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering divergence condition in 4H MACD upside should be limited […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:33 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3745; (P) 1.3765; (R1) 1.3788; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current recovery. Corrective pattern from 1.3845 could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 1.3660 support to bring another rally. Break of 1.3845 will resume the whole rally from 1.3716 to 1.3976 key resistance. In the bigger […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Forecast: Range Bound Confusion - 19 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:30 pm

The US dollar has been strong for some time, and recently we have seen the GBP/USD pair go back and forth.

GBP/CHF Forex Signal: Stable Against Franc - 19 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:25 pm

Over the last several sessions, I have been paying close attention to the GBP/CHF pair, as it has such a significant amount of swap that you can get paid.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair on April 19th. The Bank of England may lower the rate in May

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:24 pm

The GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant on Thursday. In the EUR/USD article, we used the phrase that the British currency "remains flat even after exiting the flat." Let's explain what it means. The British pound traded in a sideways channel of 1.25-1.28 (approximate boundaries) for 4 months. Last week saw the long-awaited breakthrough below the lower boundary; after that, nothing happened. The super-overbought pound still has yet to decline despite the UK economy being in a recession, and the Bank of England might start easing monetary policy much sooner than the market expects. The pound is reluctant to depreciate, despite the excellent condition of the US economy, labor market, and business activity. The market refuses to buy the dollar, despite the Fed's hawkish policy stance and the absence of inflation slowdown overseas.Thus, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading illogically. In essence, we are still determining the completion of the flat on the 24-hour timeframe. Yes, the pair has exited the sideways channel, but on the 4-hour timeframe, it has been stationary for a week now. Some may argue that this week's macroeconomic backdrop is weak, hence the pair's almost immobilized state. We consider such an opinion erroneous, as at least two events in the past few days should have moved the price off dead center. Inflation in the UK is approaching levels where it would be appropriate for the central bank to start discussing monetary policy easing. Jerome Powell made it clear that any rate cuts in the near future are out of the question.Even more interesting information emerged on Thursday. Experts from Morgan Stanley said they expect the first easing of monetary policy in the UK in May. It is noted that most market participants expect the first rate cut in September, which may still be earlier than in the US. However, Morgan Stanley experts highlight the optimism of Andrew Bailey in his speech on April 17th, who referred to the current pace of inflation decline as "in line with forecasts." And remember how many times we've said that the Fed can afford to keep rates at the maximum for as long as they want. Still, the Bank of England doesn't have such luxury, as the British economy has already been in negative territory for two consecutive quarters.As we can see, our words are gaining increasingly realistic meaning. The British regulators may start easing the policy earlier than expected to prevent further economic contraction, which has been experiencing tough times since 2016. The ECB, which avoided recession, waited for inflation to drop to 2.4% and only then began discussing readiness to start the rate-cut cycle. The Bank of England may not wait for such a CPI value and start earlier. The BoE will start cutting rates earlier, and the Fed - much later than the market expected. Thus, the fundamental backdrop still speaks only of the pound's decline. Yet the market or market makers still refuse to sell the GBP/USD pair. Or the Bank of England is conducting hidden interventions to stabilize the pound's exchange rate. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 74 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Friday, April 19th, we expect movement within the range delimited by the levels 1.2384 and 1.2532. The senior linear regression channel is pointing downward, signalling a descending trend. The CCI indicator entered the oversold zone twice, which may provoke a new rise in the pair. However, completing the 4-month flat remains key now.Nearest support levels:S1 - 1.2421S2 - 1.2390Nearest resistance levels:R1 - 1.2451R2 - 1.2482R3 - 1.2512Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD currency pair presumably completed the flat in the 24-hour timeframe, which is the most important thing. We still expect movement only to the South, and now that the level of 1.2500 has been breached, selling the pair with targets at 1.2384 and 1.2351 can be considered. Buying the British pound in the conditions of the price exiting the sideways channel through the lower boundary is irrelevant. The pair may pull back up soon, as the CCI indicator entered the oversold zone twice, but we do not consider it advisable to trade this correction.Explanations for illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will move the next day, based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator - its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approachThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:23 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6406; (P) 0.6432; (R1) 0.6446; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside a recent decline resumes through 0.6388 temporary low. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378 will extend the fall from 0.6870 to 100% projection at 0.6215. On the upside, break of […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

Overview of the EUR/USD pair on April 19th. Jerome Powell crushed all euro growth prospects

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:17 pm

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to correct on Thursday and tested the moving average line at some point during the day. Thus, the current week can be considered fully corrective. In addition to the corrective status, weekly movements were very weak. The previous week slightly relieved traders, allowing them to see the normalization of volatility levels. However, by Tuesday, it was clear that these dreams would not come true. There were few macroeconomic statistics this week, and the only important event was Jerome Powell's speech, which the market, in its best traditions, ignored.To say that the European currency has been trading illogically in recent weeks would be incorrect. After all, it is still moving downward, as it should. However, we have become accustomed to much more volatile movements, and seeing movements of only 30–40 points has become unusual. Unlike the British currency, which remains flat even after exiting the flat, the euro is trending. Just very weakly. This week, for example, a correction was expected after the previous week's events. But even a week earlier, the market blatantly ignored strong data on the US labor market and unemployment. The market is trading logically, but it's not fully committed. It is still hoped that the Fed will start easing monetary policy on schedule and that the ECB will postpone the first easing at the last moment.However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively dashed all hopes of the most optimistic supporters of the European currency this week. He clearly and unequivocally stated that progress in reducing inflation has stalled, so there should be no expectations of policy easing in June. Of course, we added the second part of the sentence ourselves, as Powell is not known for such open and direct statements. However, it is obvious that if even the head of the Fed acknowledges the lack of inflation reduction, then what talk can there be of rate cuts?At the same time, almost all ECB representatives are already speaking in unison about easing policy in June. Thus, the ECB will begin to lower the rate at the meeting and will likely adhere to the pace of "one cut in two meetings." When the Fed starts lowering the rate, the ECB may lower theirs to below 4%. Therefore, the conclusion from all this is very simple. Only when the Fed starts signalling readiness to start easing monetary policy will there be no need to even dream of the euro's growth.To be even more precise, the European currency could start a new upward trend tomorrow. All it takes is for the market to buy it against its fundamental and macroeconomic background. From the example of the British pound, we know perfectly well that such a scenario is possible. However, our analytical articles strive to draw conclusions and forecasts based on specific factors, news, trends, and global events. We cannot account for central bank currency interventions or market makers' refusal to buy or sell a currency for their reasons. Therefore, all factors indicate that the EUR/USD pair will continue to fall. However, major players still need to adhere to the same viewpoint. The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 19th is 59 points and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0602 and 1.0720 on Friday. The senior linear regression channel is still sideways, but the downward trend persists. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone, but we expect only a small upward retracement, which may already be completed.Nearest support levels:S1 - 1.0620S2 - 1.0559S3 - 1.0498Nearest resistance levels:R1 - 1.0681R2 - 1.0742R3 - 1.0803Trading recommendations: As we expected, the EUR/USD pair has resumed and continues its downward trend. The European currency should continue to decline almost in any case, so we continue to consider selling with targets at 1.0559 and 1.0498. Buying is considered impractical even in price consolidation above the moving average line. The fundamental background suggests that growth can only be expected from the dollar.Explanations for illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will move in the next day, based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator - its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY Forecast: Look at Value Hunting - 19 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:15 pm

The euro initially found during trading on Thursday, but then turned around to show signs of strength again as we continue to threaten the ¥165 level.

DAX Forecast: Buying Opportunities - 19 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:09 pm

The German DAX initially fell during the trading session on Thursday, reaching down to the 50-Day EMA.

BTC/USD Forecast: Bounces from Support - 19 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:00 pm

Bitcoin has rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as we have seen the $60,000 level offer significant support.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 19. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:00 pm

Analyzing Thursday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart EUR/USD traded with low volatility on Thursday. The hourly time chart clearly shows that this week has been quite dull with low activity. Yesterday, the euro fell, but overall, we have been observing a flat market for almost five consecutive days. There was hardly any important information and macro data this week. For instance, yesterday, there were no significant reports. However, this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mentioned something important. Powell sees "lack of further progress" on inflation. This basically means that the Fed is backing away from plans to ease monetary policy in the near future. If inflation in the US stands at 3.5%, then we shouldn't expect the "right time" to arrive anytime soon. The US dollar may continue to rise in the coming weeks and months.EUR/USD on 5M chart Two trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe, but volatility remained weak, so it was not possible to gain significant profits. During the night, there was a rebound from the level of 1.0668. After that, the price went up by 13 pips. At the beginning of the US trading session, the price breached the level of 1.0668, after which it moved in the intended direction by about 10 pips. Thus, the first trade closed with a small loss, and the second one with a small profit. Once again, we will remind you that if the pair shows weak movements, it is not possible to make profit (especially when intraday trading) regardless of any trading signals.Trading tips on Friday:On the hourly chart, the downtrend persists. We believe that the euro should fall further, as it is still too high, and in general, the trend is headed downwards. The recent macro data have shown the strength of the US economy and that it is unlikely for the Fed to lower rates in the near future. The pair has no reasons to rise.On Friday, the euro may continue to correct higher. A new bounce from the area of 1.0611-1.0618 will provoke a new corrective phase with 1.0668 as the target. A breakthrough will help in bringing back the downtrend.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611-1.0618, 1.0668, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. There are no scheduled events in the European Union, and the US events calendar is also empty. Therefore, it is unlikely for the pair to break through the 1.0611-1.0618 area and we don't expect trends during the day.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 19. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:00 pm

Analyzing Thursday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair also started a new downward movement on Thursday, which continued overnight. There was no significant macro data in the US or the UK, so we can't say that the pair fell due to news or reports. Earlier this week, the market easily ignored Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech. Overall, the downward trend persists, but this week the price has been moving more sideways than up or down. We have not seen a significant correction, nor has the downtrend resumed. However, the fact that the pound is still gradually moving downward is encouraging. It gives reason to believe that we will still see a downtrend towards the 1.20 level, which the British currency has long deserved. Today, a bounce from the level of 1.2387 may trigger a new phase of minor growth.GBP/USD on 5M chart Three trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe, but all of them were substandard. If the pair is in a flat phase, then any levels are merely for formality. Especially those that are within a sideways channel. Therefore, neither the consolidation above the level of 1.2457 nor the consolidation below this mark triggered a good movement yesterday. In all three cases, the price failed to move in the intended direction by 20 pips, which would have been enough to set the Stop Loss to breakeven. The total volatility of the day was 52 pips...Trading tips on Friday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has real technical grounds for forming a downward trend. After breaking below the level of 1.2502, traders may expect a significant decline from the pound. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. However, it seems that the market is not in a rush to sell the British currency.On Friday, novice traders can look for new sell signals below the level of 1.2502. Unfortunately, the pound has been flat this week, so we shouldn't expect logical movements. This week's macroeconomic backdrop is weak, so we shouldn't expect strong movements either. The bounce from the level of 1.2387 could have been used for long positions, but it happened overnight.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. The UK retail sales report is due on Friday, while the US economic calendar is basically empty. Therefore, we expect another flat phase. It's unlikely that the price will break below the level of 1.2387.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Key events on April 19: fundamental analysis for beginners

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:00 pm

Analysis of macroeconomic reports: For Friday, the lineup of macroeconomic events is practically barren. We can only highlight the UK retail sales report, which will be released in a couple of hours. Although this report has a moderate level of significance, what reaction can it provoke in the current circumstances? Maybe perhaps 20-30 pips at most. The GBP/USD pair has been nearly flat all week. Overnight, there was a rebound from the presumed lower boundary of this flat - the level of 1.0618. Therefore, it is more likely that we will see a new upward movement, regardless of the nature of this particular report.Analysis of fundamental events: There are several fundamental events scheduled for Friday, but all of them will take place in the evening, so they will not have any impact on the movements of both currency pairs during the day. Bank of England representative Dave Ramsden, and Federal Reserve official Lael Brainard will speak. Since we have already heard speeches from Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey this week, which are objectively more important, but the market has generally ignored them, we do not believe that Ramsden and Brainard will be able to communicate anything that is so significant that it will elicit a strong market reaction.General conclusion:There will be few events on Friday. Volatility may be low; both currency pairs may attempt to form a new bullish correction as they have encountered important support levels on their way down.Basic rules of a trading system:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Retail sales. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on retail sales will be published in the UK. The indicator monthly records the volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on samples of retail stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). The rate is expected to adjust from 0.0% to 0.3% MoM and from –0.4% to –0.7% YoY, while the core figure is likely to fall from 0.2% to −0.1% MoM and from −0.5% to −0.9% YoY, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Producer price index. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), Germany will publish the March producer price index, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting the monthly change in prices for goods and services provided by producers, and has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. The figure is likely to adjust from –0.4% to 0.0% MoM and from –4.1% to –3.8% YoY, supporting the euro. Read more

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 19, 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 20:03 pm

USD/JPYSince the USD/JPY pair has surpassed the resistance level of 154.25, it has consolidated above this mark for three days. However, although the price is above the level of 154.25, it could not stay above the embedded line of the price channel (154.50) at this time, especially with the Marlin oscillator declining.As a result, the bears took over the initiative, and in today's Asian session, they pulled the price below the support at 154.25. On the 4-hour chart, the price reached the MACD indicator line (153.73). A consolidation below it opens the way to 151.95. Also, on the 4-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator broke down after consolidating below the zero line. We are waiting for the pair to fall further. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 19, 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 20:03 pm

GBP/USDYesterday, the British pound made another attempt, after Wednesday's rise, to start an upward movement, but it was impossible to surpass the Wednesday high. And this morning, the price broke below the support level at 1.2427.Up to this point, the Marlin oscillator has not been eager to help the price; it's been busy doing its own job—releasing tension in front of the oversold territory for a more convenient downward movement. But now it has turned downwards. The nearest target for the pound is 1.2370—the November 17, 2023 low. Then comes the struggle to consolidate within the range of 1.2287-1.2307.On the 4-hour chart, the price is preparing to consolidate below the level of 1.2427. The Marlin oscillator has moved into negative territory. The signal for further downward movement has been formed.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 19, 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 20:03 pm

EUR/USDAs anticipated in yesterday's review, the euro and other counter-dollar currencies have used up all their strength to rise on Wednesday while risk appetite was broadly declining. So yesterday, the euro fell by 29 pips. Stock markets and oil also continued to decline.Economic indicators from the US came out strong; initial claims for state unemployment benefits were at 212,000, against a forecast of 215,000, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose from 3.2 to 15.5 points in April. Market expectations for a rate cut slightly increased for the November meeting, from 41.5% to 42.7%.In today's Pacific session, the quote broke below the 1.0636/56 range. The pair can now aim for 1.0567.There are no economic reports scheduled for today, so the price may continue to decline following yesterday's momentum.On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the euro recently ascended below the balance indicator line, indicating a corrective movement. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still within the uptrend territory. To completely form a bearish signal, the price must consolidate below the lower boundary of the range, at which point Marlin will enter the downward territory.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Polkadot Cryptocurrency, Friday April 19 2024.

Apr 18, 2024 | 19:09 pm

Although currently on the 4 hour chart Polkadot Cryptocurrency is inside the selling pressure where this is confirmed by MA 20 which is below MA 200 (Death Cross) as well as Stochastic Oscillator which is on the overbought level, but with the MA 20 condition in the middle of candle body as well as the form of Triangle pattern gives the clue that currently Polkadot is inside the Sideways condition, however because of the selling pressure in the near future, Polkadot has the potential to continue its weakness up to the level 6,4455 as the main target and if the momentum as well as the volatility is supporting enough, then the weakness will continue to the next level of 5,7586 but if on the way downside suddenly there is an upward correction which breaks above the level 7,2034 then the weakness correction that has been described before will become invalid.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Litecoin Cryptocurrency, Friday April 19 2024.

Apr 18, 2024 | 19:09 pm

From what wee seen on the 4 hour chart of Litecoin cryptocurrency, we can conclude that currently still inside the selling pressure where this weakness confirmed by the Death Cross of MA 20 which is under MA 200, as well as the appearance of Rising Wedge pattern as well as Stochastic Oscillator indicator which managed to breaks below the overbought level (80) so that in the near future Litecoin has the potential to weaken although there is a potential of strengthening correction to the level area of bearish Fair Value Gap, but as long as the strengthening correction does not break above the level 94,62, then Litecoin still inside the selling pressure so that will have the potential to continue its weakness until the level area of 78,66-76,22 as the main level area target and if the momentum as well as the volatility is supporting enough, then Litecoin will continue its weakness until level 70,73.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Michelle Bowman reiterated Jerome Powell's opinion

Apr 18, 2024 | 16:01 pm

As we have already discussed, it no longer makes sense to expect a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The latest Consumer Price Index report showed that inflation exceeds the target mark by almost twice. It will take at least 5-6 months for inflation to slow down to at least 2.5%. And only then will the Fed be able to start discussing the first rate cut. Personally, I don't expect this to happen in the near future. This week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that progress in inflation has stalled, and FOMC member Michelle Bowman shared the same sentiments.Bowman said she expects U.S. inflation to decline further, and the current monetary policy is restrictive. However, it remains to be seen if it is "sufficiently" restrictive. She lamented that American consumers are switching to cheaper goods and services, but are still spending too much money, which negatively affects the pace of slowing consumer prices. Bowman did not say what the central bank would do if inflation finally stops slowing down. However, we should read between the lines. If inflation in the United States stops declining, then there will be only one way out - a new interest rate hike. I do understand that it is extremely difficult to believe in such a scenario, when the market has been anticipating Fed policy easing for four months. But let's remember that at the beginning of the year, the market was confident in a rate cut in March, and just a few weeks ago, in a rate cut in June. Now, the boldest economists are saying that the first round could be conducted in December or even next year. Therefore, in my opinion, the Fed could even go for one or two more steps towards tightening monetary policy.Even if the Fed does not raise rates further, its policy will remain more restrictive for longer compared to the Eurozone, and possibly even longer than in the UK. Based on this, I still expect bearish waves to form on EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments. For me, there is no other scenario at the moment, although, undoubtedly, the news background could change, and then adjustments would need to be made to the wave pattern. But at the moment, I see no reason to worry.Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0463 mark, as the news background works in the dollar's favor. The sell signal we need near 1.0880 was formed (an attempt at a breakthrough failed). Wave analysis for GBP/USD:The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c has started to form. A successful attempt to break 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is finally ready to build a downward wave.Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Nationwide Core Consumer Price Index. Japan, 01:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 14:30 pm

At 01:30 (GMT+2), the March national core consumer price index will be published, recording changes in the cost of goods and services, except food and energy. It is a key way to determine purchasing trends and inflation in Japan. It is expected to decline from 2.8% to 2.7% YoY. Read more

Consumer Confidence Index from GfK Group. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2), data on the consumer confidence index from GfK Group will be published in the UK. The indicator evaluates the spending of the country’s residents, which is part of economic activity. The negative dynamics are expected to slow down from −21.0 points to −19.0 points, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

More selling US stocks. NASDAQ approaching a key technical area.

Apr 18, 2024 | 10:59 am

The US stocks are moving back toward session lows. The NASDAQ in that this really trading at 15615. The low price reached 15595.74. At current levels the price is down -0.43%.As the price was lower, it is getting closer to a key technical support level defined by the 50% midpoint of the 2024 trading range. That level comes in at 15508.22. Close to that level is the rising 100-day moving average at 15478.89. The price has not been below its 100 day moving average since November 10, 2023.That area should be a tough nut to crack on a test.The S&P index is currently down -0.20%. For the training weekFor the trading week, the NASDAQ index is on pace for its worst week since September 18, 2023. Is currently down -3.42%. The S&P index is down -2.19% which is its worst week since October 23, 2023.The Dow is the best performer, but it is still lower -0.67% on the week This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD moves to a new session high. EURUSD falls to 100 hour MA target.

Apr 18, 2024 | 10:44 am

The EURUSD has moved lower and is testing its 100-day moving average of 1.06421. A move below that level would tilt the bias even more to the sellers. Buyers earlier in the day tried to extend higher but could not get to the next target near 1.0694, nor the 38.2% retracement of the move down from last week's high,, to this week's low (1.0709).Looking at the USDCHF, it too is extending to test its 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below). That moving average surely comes into 0.91199 . A move above that level and staying above is needed to increase its bullish bias.The USDJPY is also extending to new highs and looks toward the highs from earlier this week between 154.69 and 154.78. The NZDUSD price is breaking below its 100 hour MA and moving to a new low for the day. The 100 hour MA comes in at 0.5912. Stay below is more bearish....The next target comes in at 0.5892. The low from yesterday and for the week came in at 0.58569. That was the lowest level since November 15, 2023. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD retraces most of the gains for the week and returns to swing area target

Apr 18, 2024 | 09:42 am

The USDCAD on Monday but bounced into Tuesday and Wednesday's trading. The high price for the week did enter into a swing area going back to October and November 2023 between 1.38397 and 1.3855. From there, buyers turn to sellers in the process since retraced most of the gains and trades back between a swing area support level again going back to October/November but at a lower level between 1.3735 and 1.3765. The price decline has stalled within that swing area as the market accesses the next "shove". The video outlines the technicals in play and explains why.... This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD eyes retail sales

Apr 18, 2024 | 08:33 am

The British pound is having a quiet week and that trend has continued on Thursday . In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2450, down 0.04%. Will UK retail sales improve? The UK release retail sales for March on Friday. The market forecast for March is 0.7% y/y after a decline of 0.4% […]

USD is higher and so is the USDCHF. The pair has reached the 100 hour MA. What next?

Apr 18, 2024 | 07:55 am

The USD is higher and so is the USDCHF in morning US trading. The pair has now moved back up to retest its 100-day moving average up 0.91199. It will now take a move above that level - and staying above that level - to increase the bullish bias and have traders looking back toward the high prices from earlier this week and last week between 0.91469 and 0.9151. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US dollar moving higher. NY Fed Pres. Williams doesn't rule out a fed hike if needed

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:58 am

NY Fed Pres. Williams doesn't rule out a fed hike if needed. That has the market on edge and the US dollar moving higher. Rates are also higher with the 10 year now up 4.2 basis points.EURUSD: The EURUSD is back below the swing area outlined in the kickstart video at 1.0655. It moves back toward its 100-day moving average 1.06419.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is moving back within the swing area between 1.2427 and 1.2449, and away from its 50% midpoint at 1.24646.USDJPY: The USDJPY is moving to a new high, but at the same time is not running. A topside trend line and then the highs from earlier this week are targets (see chart above). The good news for buyers is the 38.2% of the recent move higher is continuing to hold support. The buyers are winning. The seller are not in control if the correction CANNOT get below the 38.2% of just the last trend move higher. USDCHF: The USDCHF is back above the 200 hour MA (green line) at 0.9098 and also above the 0.9100 level. A swing level this week (and last) is at 0.9112 and the 100 hour MA (blue line on chart below) is at 0.9120. Get above it, and the buyers take more control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US, Japan express concern over Japanese yen

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.44, up 0.03%. It’s a light data calendar today. US unemployment claims were unchanged at 212,000 and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surged to 15.5 in April, up from 3.5 in March and crushing the market estimate of […]

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0626; (P) 1.0653; (R1) 1.0700; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0601 and intraday bias stays neutral. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:34 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2421; (P) 1.2451; (R1) 1.2486; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2404 is extending. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2404 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% projection of 1.2892 to […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9088; (P) 0.9115; (R1) 0.9135; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as consolidation from 0.9151 is extending. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 0.9243 key resistance next. In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/TRY Forecast: IMF Expects Lira to Fall to Record Lows

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:26 am

USD/TRY trading rose in early Thursday trading, as the pair seeks to break through resistance levels that have held this month at 32.50 and close above them daily.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:21 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.11; (P) 154.43; (R1) 154.71; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 155.20 fibonacci projection level. On the downside, break of 153.89 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart your FX trading for April 18 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:11 am

Kickstart your FX trading for April 18, 2024, with a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.The EURUSD moved to a new session high for the week and above a swing area between 1.0655 and 1.0675, but could not extend above the February 1.0694 target. Buyers have turned to sellers. The price is back within the aforementioned swing area.The USDJPY backed off from the highest levels since 1990 on Tuesday at 154.78. Today the corrective low was able to get below its rising 100-day moving average (currently at 154.174), but COULD NOT get below the 38.2% retracement of the last trend moved to the upside at 153.94. Sellers turned to buyers. The price is back above the 100-day moving average. The buyers are still in control. The GBPUSD has been trading up and down this week. Yesterday and today, the price has been trading above and below its 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 2023 low. That level comes at 1.24646. Stay below that level, and will below the swing area between 1.2427 and 1.2449, would increase the bearish bias technically. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Analysis: Weak Sentiment Weighs on Sterling

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:48 am

In limited trading, the British pound received a boost after the latest UK inflation reading exceeded expectations and shifted the odds in favor of an August rate cut.

USD/JPY Analysis: Eyes Watching Japan's Action Cautiously

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:22 am

Recently, the US dollar exchange rate against other major currencies has remained supported by new warnings from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that US interest rates will need to stay at current levels for longer than previously expected.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:06 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite extended the drop into new lows despite a lack of bearish catalysts. In fact, we had pretty much a down day for most markets with selloffs in the US Dollar, Treasury yields and some commodities. On the geopolitical front, not much has changed as the Israeli retaliation continues to be delayed and it’s not even sure if they will strike at all now. On the macro side, the market has priced out almost all the rate cuts in 2024 as it expects just one cut later in the year. On the data front, we don’t have much to work on in the next couple of weeks except the PCE, which the Fed has already indicated to be slightly higher but mostly unchanged. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite sold off into the first key support level at 15929 following the hot US Retail Sales and the geopolitical news. The price ranged for the entire trading session yesterday as the risk sentiment remained negative. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the low to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking the low to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 15453.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke out of the 3-week long range and triggered more bearish momentum as the sellers piled in more aggressively to target a break below the 15929 support. After the breakout of the rising wedge, the market started to rollover from the highs and the chances of seeing a correction all the way down to the base of the pattern at 14477 increases by the day. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. If we get another pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for new lows. Alternatively, the sellers can wait for the price to break the low to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Analysis: Weak Uptrend Correction Attempts

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:03 am

For three trading sessions in a row, the price of the euro against the US dollar (EUR/USD) is trying to rebound higher, but its gains did not exceed the level of 1.0680.

The CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:02 am

The CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins.The USD is mostly lower to start the trading day.Overnight, Australian employment change showed -6.6K versus 7.2K. However, the unemployment rate was less than expectations at 3.8 cents versus 3.9% expected, but was up from last month's 3.7% The AUDUSD is modestly higher in trading today, but has found willing sellers near the topside swing area target:Last night in Japan, BOJ policymaker Asahi Noguchi highlighted the mixed impacts of a weaker yen, noting that while some large firms have benefited, it poses broader economic challenges. Noguchi expressed increasing confidence in reaching the BOJ's 2% inflation target but remained cautious about the pace of future interest rate hikes, emphasizing that they would depend on economic data. He also discussed the potential prolonged effects of yen weakness on wages and prices, which must be considered in monetary policy decisions. Despite the potential for future rate hikes, Noguchi did not commit to any specific actions for the remainder of the year, indicating uncertainty in the immediate monetary policy path. The USDJPY moved lower in the Asian session and tested the 38.2% of the last trend move higher at 153.94 at session lows before rebounding back higher. The price is also back above its rising 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) at 154.153 after dipping below that MA on the fall. If the sellers are to "win" vs the buyers, they need to get and stay below the 38.2% of the last move higher at the minimum. If they cannot do that, the sellers are simply not winning. On the economic calendar today, the weekly US jobless claims (215K est. vs 211K last week), Philly Fed business index (2.3 vs 3.2 last month), existing home sales (4.20M units vs 4.38M annualized last month) and leading index (which was actually positive in the prior month after a string of negative readings), will all be released today. Looking at the Fedspeak ahead of the quiet period which will begin tomorrow after the close:Fed Gov. Bowman will be speaking at 9:05 AM ETNY Fed Pres. Williams will speak at 9:15 AM ETAtlanta Fed Pres. Bostic will speak at 11 AM ETAtlanta Fed Pres. Bostic will also speak at 5:45 PM just in case he forgot to remind us that the Fed policy will likely be delayedLooking at other speakers today, ECBs di Guindos and ECBs Schnabel will both be speaking. ECBs di Guindos spoke earlier today and said it would be appropriate to loosen restrictive policy if inflation conditions are met.Geopolitical news as us reportedly agreeing to back an Israeli operation in Rafah return for Israel not conducting a major strike on Iran. Report to the was a large movement of Israeli armored vehicles near the outskirts of the city of Rafah. There were other reports that Israel is unlikely to carry out an retaliatory attack against Iran before Passover. So the Middle East is heating up a bit today. TSMC announced earnings which beat expectations, but its stock is still lower in pre-market trading (trading down $2.04 or -1.47% at $137):Performance:Net Profit: Increased by 9%, BEAT market expectations.Revenue: Rose 16.5% annually, influenced by high demand in AI.Factors Contributing to Performance:Increased AI Demand: Helped counteract reduced demand from pandemic-era electronics.Comparative Year Factor: Last year's weak chip demand created a lower comparison base, aiding this year's significant growth.Summary: TSMC BEAT market expectations with strong first-quarter results driven by burgeoning AI demand and a favorable year-over-year comparison.Netflix will report its earnings after the close. Intuitive surgical loss will report their earnings later today.US stocks are trading higher in premarket trading, yields are near unchanged on crude oil's lower, gold is moving back to the upside.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down one dollar or -1.23% at $81.67. At this time yesterday, the price was at $84.80Gold is trading up by $22.29 or 0.95% at $2382.41. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2387.80.Silver is trading up $0.23 or 0.83% at $28.43. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.46Bitcoin currently trades at $62,800 – not far off of the level at this time yesterday. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,846In the premarket, the US major indices are trading higher:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 89 points. Yesterday, the index fell -45.6 points or -0.12% at 37753.32S&P futures are implying a gain of 12.54 points. Yesterday, the index fell -29.18 points or -0.58% at 5022.22Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 63.88 points. Yesterday, the index fell -181.88 points or -1.15% at 15683.37The European indices are trading higher:German DAX, +0.06%France CAC , was 0.43%UK FTSE 100, +0.26Spain's Ibex, +0.80%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.22% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, +0.31%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.09%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.82%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.48%Looking at the US debt market, yields are near unchanged. 2-year yield 4.931%, +0.7 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.964%5-year yield 4.615%, -0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.674%10-year yield 4.584%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.651%30-year yield 4.699%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.757%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads moved more inverted:The 2-10 year spread is at -35.6 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -31.1 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -24.2 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -20.8 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are lower: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Existing Home Sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), March data on sales in the secondary housing market in the United States will be published, which reflect the number of existing residential buildings sold during the past month, and are one of the most important indicators of the construction market. The figure is expected to decrease from 4.38 million to 4.20 million. Read more

Gold Analysis: Temporary Halt to Gains

Apr 18, 2024 | 04:53 am

In the middle of trading this week, gold futures retreated as investors digested the latest remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Still Looking Bullish

Apr 18, 2024 | 04:50 am

Gold and Silver are holding up well despite the generally strong bearish reversals we have just seen in commodity markets.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis - Watch these key resistance zones

Apr 18, 2024 | 04:04 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating. The market expects the first rate cut in August.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD is pulling back into some key resistance levels with even a possible break and retest pattern around the 1.25 handle. In fact, we can see that the sellers will have two short opportunities:The first one around the 1.25 handle where they will also find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the blue 8 moving average. The second one around the 1.26 handle where they will find the confluence of the trendline, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break above the trendline to turn the trend around and start targeting a new cycle high. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the bearish setups around the 1.25 and the 1.26 handles. If the price were to break above the 1.25 resistance zone, we can expect the buyers to increase the bullish bets into the trendline targeting a break above it. There’s not much else to glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the ultimate target for the pullback should be the base of the divergent formation around the 1.26 handle with a break above it confirming a reversal. In case, we get a rejection from the 1.25 resistance, the buyers might lean on the black counter-trendline to position for a rally into the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the UK Retail Sales. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Australian dollar shrugs off soft job numbers

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:55 am

The Australian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6442, up 0.12%. Australia’s employment declines Australia’s job growth hit the breaks in March and fell by 6,600. This missed the market estimate of a gain of 7,700 and follows a blowout gain of 116,500 in February. Still, the drop […]

Initial Jobless Claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on Initial Jobless Claims in the USA will be released. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. These data are collected by the Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. Initial Jobless Claims indicator is used to measure the state of the labor market, since an increase in the indicator means that fewer people are hired. A correction is expected from 211.0 thousand to 214.0 thousand. Read more

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Apr 18, 2024 | 02:47 am

Yesterday, the Dow Jones extended the drop into new lows despite a lack of bearish catalysts. In fact, we had pretty much a down day for most markets with selloffs in the US Dollar, Treasury yields and some commodities. On the geopolitical front, not much has changed as the Israeli retaliation continues to be delayed and it’s not even sure if they will strike at all now. On the macro side, the market has priced out almost all the rate cuts in 2024 as it expects just one cut later in the year. On the data front, we don’t have much to work on in the next couple of weeks except the PCE, which the Fed has already indicated to be slightly higher but mostly unchanged. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones has been trading inside a rising channel and continued to diverge with the MACD for a long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. Recently, we got a breakout which opened the door for a bigger correction into the 37128 level. The sellers managed to break the second key support level and will now target a drop into the third and last one at 37128. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break the current downward trend to start targeting new highs. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been getting rejected by the downward trendline and the blue 8 moving average as the sellers kept leaning on them with a defined risk above the trendline to position for new lows. If we get another pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline again to position for a drop into the third key support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that all the rallies have been faded as the sellers kept on piling in around the trendline as they continue to target the 37128 support. We can notice that we are starting to see a divergence with the MACD which is signalling a weakening bearish momentum. The price action might also form a descending triangle so a break on either side will likely trigger a sustained move. Upcoming EventsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

NZD/USD Analysis: Lower Realms Being Explored as Sentiment Solidifies

Apr 18, 2024 | 02:08 am

The downwards momentum in the NZD/USD which has developed over the mid-term cannot be denied.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Resistance at $0.6456 Holding

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:50 am

Small recovery against the greenback after G7 statement.

BTC/USD Analysis: Halving and Energy Costs Factors for Speculators

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:28 am

Bitcoin is about to undergo a transactional halving.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:25 am

Yesterday, the S&P 500 extended the drop into new lows despite a lack of bearish catalysts. In fact, we had pretty much a down day for most markets with selloffs in the US Dollar, Treasury yields and some commodities. On the geopolitical front, not much has changed as the Israeli retaliation continues to be delayed and it’s not even sure if they will strike at all now. On the macro side, the market has priced out almost all the rate cuts in 2024 as it expects just one cut later in the year. On the data front, we don’t have much to work on in the next couple of weeks except the PCE, which the Fed has already indicated to be slightly higher but mostly unchanged. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 continues to rollover with the trend now looking clearly bearish as the price keeps on printing lower lows and lower highs with the moving averages being crossed to the downside. The sellers continue to pile in at every support break with the next one coming at 4946. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break some key levels on the lower timeframes to start targeting new highs. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the confluence of the red 21 moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor black trendline defining the current downward momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in again if we get a pullback into the trendline to position for a drop into the 4946 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and target a rally into the trendline around the 5120 level. Upcoming EventsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/SGD Forecast: US Dollar Pulls Back Slightly Against Singapore Dollar

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:04 am

The US dollar pulled back slightly during the trading session on Monday.

USD/ZAR Forecast: South African Rand Continues to See Pressure

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:56 am

The USD initially pulled back against the ZAR during the trading session on Wednesday but has found support below the 19 Rand level in order to get involved.

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Pulls Back Against Canadian Dollars

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:48 am

The US dollar has fallen a bit against the Canadian dollar during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:47 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.70; (P) 192.27; (R1) 192.86; More.. Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 189.97 support will indicate that it’s at least correcting the rise from 178.32, and target 38.2% […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Forecast: British Pound Gives Back Some Gains

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:20 am

The British pound has rallied significantly during the early hours on Wednesday but has given back some of the gains.

USD/JPY Forex Signal: US Dollar Continues to Pound the Japanese Yen

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:12 am

The US dollar initially pulled back during the trading session on Wednesday but found buyers underneath to continue to pick it up.

Gold Technical Analysis

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:10 am

Gold has been consolidating below the 2400 level since last week as the mix of geopolitical and macro drivers led to a rangebound price action. In fact, on the geopolitical front, we still have some fears of an Israeli retaliation against Iran, although they are slowly dissipating due to the lack of a follow-through since Monday. On the macro side, the real yields have risen notably in the past couple of weeks, which is generally a negative driver for the Gold market. That was not the case this time and it’s not yet clear if it’s just because of geopolitical fears or something else. If it’s indeed just because of geopolitical fears, we might see a quick drop at some point, so it will be important to monitor the technical levels. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Gold got stuck in a consolidation just beneath the 2400 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets and target a bigger drop into the next trendline around the 2100 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it led to pullbacks into the minor black trendline where the buyers keep on leaning onto to position for new higher highs. If the price were to break lower, the reversal would be confirmed, and the sellers will pile in more aggressively to target a drop into the trendline around the 2300 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a strong resistance zone around the 2395 level where the price got rejected from several times since last week. If the price were to get there again, the sellers will likely step in again with a defined risk above it to position for a break below the trendline with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsToday we have the last important report of the week, that is the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold, while weak figures should give it a boost. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Flag Pattern Points to More Downside

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:57 pm

The GBP/USD exchange stabilized as the recent sell-off took a breather after the latest UK inflation data and a statement by Andrew Bailey.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Euro Crash Eases but More Downside Possible

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:50 pm

The EUR/USD exchange rate recovered slightly on Thursday morning, erasing some of the recent losses.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Breaks Below Key Support Ahead of Bitcoin Halving

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:43 pm

It was a sea of red in the cryptocurrency market as the countdown to the Bitcoin halving event continued.

S&P 500 Forecast: Finds Support Underneath

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:24 pm

The S&P 500 initially fell overnight in the electronic hours, but it looks to me as if we are trying to recover a bit.

GBP/JPY Forecast: Sees Upward Momentum

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:21 pm

The British pound has rallied against the Japanese yen. Yet again on Wednesday, as it looks like the ¥193 level continues on for a lot of resistance.

USD/MXN Forecast: Peso Attempts a Recovery

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:17 pm

The U.S. dollar has fallen just a bit during the trading session on Wednesday as the 17.10 level has offered a bit of resistance.

Trade Balance. Switzerland, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on Trade Balance in Switzerland will be published. This indicator captures the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. The indicator is projected to decrease from the current 3.662 billion francs to 3.220 billion francs, which may put pressure on the exchange rate of the Swiss national currency. Read more

Unemployment Rate. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), March unemployment data will be published in Australia, which records the percentage of the number of registered unemployed over the age of 18 to the total working-age population. The indicator is expected to adjust from 3.7% to 3.9%. Read more

Employment Change. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), March employment data will be published in Australia, recording the change in the number of employed citizens. The indicator is expected to decrease from 116.5 thousand to 7.2 thousand. The realization of the forecast can put pressure on the Australian currency. Read more

Beige Book. USA, 20:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 09:00 am

At 20:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed) will publish the Beige Book economic report. It characterizes the state of the economy in the twelve federal districts of the country and contains information on all types of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market, and other indicators at the moment. The document is published eight times a year before scheduled meetings of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Read more

AUD/USD steadies ahead of employment data

Apr 17, 2024 | 08:34 am

The Australian dollar has stabilized on Wednesday, after a 2.2% decline over the past three days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.62254, up 0.37% but remains close to five-month lows. Australian job growth expected to slide Australia’s employment is expected to post a small gain of 7,200 in March after a […]

NZ dollar rebounds on sticky inflation report

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:16 am

The New Zealand dollar has bounced back with strong gains on Wednesday, ending a nasty slide of 3.4% which started last week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5907, up 0.45%. New Zealand inflation falls less than expected New Zealand’s CPI continued to ease in the first quarter but the markets were […]

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks. UK, 18:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:00 am

At 18:00 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will give a speech, in which investors hope to hear comments on the steps already taken in the field of monetary policy aimed at slowing the rate of record inflation, as well as forecasts for the development of the national economy in the context of global instability. Read more

Crude oil inventories. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present a weekly report containing data on changes in the volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the country. A correction from the current 5.841M barrels to 0.900M barrels is expected, supporting oil quotes. Read more

GBP/USD rises as UK inflation higher than expected

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:46 am

The British pound has rebounded after sliding 2.1% over the past week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2461, up 0.28%. UK inflation drops to 3.2% Inflation in the UK continues to decline but the March release was not as strong as expected. Inflation eased to 3.2% y/y, down from 3.4% in February […]

EUR/CHF Technical: Bullish exhaustion condition detected after 2-month of rallies

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:24 am

A bolder dovish ECB increases the likelihood of a yield premium shrinkage of Eurozone sovereign bonds over Switzerland sovereign bonds. The recent 2-month of rallies seen in the EUR/CHF have been overstretched with bearish momentum conditions flashed out. EUR/CHF is at risk of shaping a short-term mean reversion decline within a medium-term uptrend phase. Watch […]

Consumer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the consumer price index of EU countries will be published. It is the main indicator of inflation and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, etc. It has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in monetary policy. It may change from 0.6% to 0.8% MoM and from 2.6% to 2.4% YoY, while the core reading may rise from 0.7% to 1.1% MoM and decrease from 3.1% to 2.9% YoY. Read more

Consumer price index. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on the consumer price index will be published in the UK. It is the main indicator of inflation in the country and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services (food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, etc.), and also has a significant impact on decisions on monetary policy. It may change from 3.4% to 3.1% YoY and from 0.6% to 0.7% MoM. Read more

Trade balance. Japan, 01:50 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 14:50 pm

At 01:50 (GMT+2), March trade balance data will be published in Japan. This indicator records the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods, and its increase is a positive factor for the yen. The negative dynamics may accelerate from −379.4B yen to −810.2B yen, putting pressure on the yen. Read more

Consumer price index. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), the Q1 consumer price index will be published in New Zealand, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It has a significant influence on the decisions of regulators in monetary policy. It may increase from 0.5% to 0.6% QoQ and consolidate at 4.7% YoY. Read more

API weekly crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be published. The continuation of the correction from 3.034M barrels may put pressure on oil quotes. Read more

NZ dollar slips ahead of New Zealand inflation

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:42 am

The New Zealand dollar is down for a third straight day and has plunged 3.4% in less than a week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5881, down 0.36%. New Zealand inflation expected to fall to 4.3% New Zealand’s inflation rate has been dropping and the trend is expected to continue on […]

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. USA, 19:15 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:15 am

At 19:15 (GMT+2), the head of the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed), Jerome Powell, will give a speech. The official can share his vision of the current situation in the American economy against ongoing geopolitical tensions and hint at the regulator’s further actions in the monetary policy. Read more

Canadian dollar extends losses as Canada’s inflation rises

Apr 16, 2024 | 07:16 am

The Canadian dollar is down for a fifth straight day and has slipped 1.9% during that time. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3840, up 0.37%. Canada’s inflation rises to 2.9% Canada’s inflation rate for March rose to 2.9% y/y, ticking up from 2.8% in February and above the market forecast of […]

Industrial production. USA, 15:15 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:15 am

At 15:15 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production will be published in the United States. The indicator records changes in the volume of output of industrial goods and utilities in the country. Its calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may change from 0.1% to 0.4% MoM, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Currency war and geopolitical risk are deadly concoctions for risk assets

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:00 am

The odds have inched higher for a currency war scenario where the Chinese yuan may be weakened further to drive export growth due to its latest decelerating growth trend in China’s retail sales and persistent weak housing prices. Export-oriented countries may be forced to enact “beggar-thy-neighbour” typed monetary policies to deliberately weaken their respective currencies. […]

Housing starts. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will present March data on the number of new houses, the construction of which began in the reporting month. It is one of the most important indicators of the American construction market. It may decrease from 1.521M to 1.480M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Building permits. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on the number of building permits issued. The indicator records monthly changes in the number of applications registered by the US government for the construction of real estate and is one of the most important indicators of the sector. It may change from 1.524M to 1.514M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Consumer price index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in Canada, March data on the consumer price index will be published, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on, and also significantly influences the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. It may change from 0.3% to 0.7% MoM and from 2.8% to 3.1% YoY. Read more

GBP/USD dips after weak employment data

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:10 am

The British pound dropped 0.30% after today’s UK employment report but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2452, up 0.05%. UK job growth slides, unemployment rises The UK employment report was weaker than expected. Job growth took a hard hit in the three months to February as […]

ZEW economic conditions. Germany, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the April index of current economic conditions in Germany from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The indicator reflects the prevailing sentiment among financial analysts in Germany, and the subject of the study is the most important indicators: inflation, interest rates, stock indices, exchange rates, and oil prices. It may continue its negative trend from −80.5 points to −82.0 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

Trade balance. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the EU will publish February trade balance data, recording the difference between payments for exported and imported goods. It may increase from 11.4B euros, supporting the euro. Read more

ZEW economic sentiment. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the April EU business sentiment index from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of institutional investors and analysts who are optimistic and pessimistic. It may rise from 33.5 points to 37.2 points, supporting the euro. Read more

Claimant count. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the UK. The rate measures the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given month. It may change from 16.8K to 17.2K, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Unemployment rate. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), February unemployment data will be published in the UK, recording the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. It may adjust from 3.9% to 4.0%. Read more

Employment change 3M/3M. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the UK will publish February employment data for the previous three-month period, showing changes in the number of employed citizens in the country. It may continue its negative trend from –21.0K, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – Pause in oil rally, UK and Japan inflation, China Q1 GDP are the focus for this week

Apr 15, 2024 | 18:38 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, the possible scenarios on the trajectory oil prices after its 13% rally seen in the past month amid geopolitical tensions in Middle East with fears of tic-for-tact retaliation moves between Israel and Iran. Secondly, the adverse […]

Unemployment rate. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), March unemployment data will be published in China, reflecting the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. It may fall from 5.3% to 5.2%. Read more

GBP/USD eyes UK employment release

Apr 15, 2024 | 08:12 am

The British pound is steady on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2445, up 0.05%. US retail sales climb 0.7% US consumers continue to shop and spend as March retail sales was stronger than expected. Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m, up from a revised 0.9% gain in February and above the […]

Euro ends slide as industrial production rebounds

Apr 15, 2024 | 05:14 am

The euro has stabilized on Monday after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0656, up 0.14%. The US dollar posted strong gains last week against the majors and surged 1.8% against the euro, which fell to a six-month low. Eurozone industrial production rebounded 0.8% m/m in February following […]

NZ dollar slides to five-month low

Apr 15, 2024 | 03:13 am

The New Zealand dollar has stabilized on Monday after as sharp decline of 1% on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5945, up 0.14%. The New Zealand dollar dropped as low as 0.5927 earlier, its lowest point since November 14. NZ Services PSI declines New Zealand’s services sector had a dismal March, […]

Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:12 am

Commitments of Traders aggregate net bullish open positions of large speculators in the Gold futures market have flashed a bearish contrarian condition. The recent rally in Gold (XAU/USD) has been primarily driven by an increase in geopolitical risk premium arising from Middle East tensions. A lack of fresh catalysts after the latest Iran retaliation offensive […]

NZ dollar slips as manufacturing softens

Apr 12, 2024 | 06:02 am

The New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Friday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5956, down 0.68%. The US dollar has moved higher against the majors and NZD/USD has declined about 1% this week. NZ manufacturing PMI contracts for 13th straight month Manufacturing has been an Achilles heel for many of […]

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