Forex News Live Today: The Ultimate Source for Forex News ☀️

Japan’s Top FX Diplomat Mimura: Closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency

Nov 6, 2024 | 17:53 pm

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister For International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said on Thursday, he is “closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.” He added that he is “ready to take appropriate actions for excess FX moves if necessary.” Market reaction USD/JPY eased off 154.72, its intraday high, losing 0.11% on the day to trade near 154.50 following these verbal warnings.

Australian Dollar remains tepid following a lower Trade Balance, Trump’s victory

Nov 6, 2024 | 17:45 pm

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) for the second successive session on Thursday following the Trade Balance data.

Trump Victory Implications: Market Outlook and Sector Analysis

Nov 6, 2024 | 17:35 pm

Abrdn plc (formerly Standard Life Aberdeen plc) is a United Kingdom-based investment company. Analyst comments on the implications of Trump's win:expected to lead to a more relaxed regulatory environment, increased trade tariffs, and possible repeals of parts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).Markets were already factoring in a potential Trump win, but a Republican sweep of Congress would make it easier to implement their policy agenda.Companies vulnerable to tariff hikes and certain parts of the IRA, such as European auto manufacturers, electric vehicles, and offshore wind, could face pressure.US companies with supply chains in China might see share price declines, while domestic manufacturing and US small and mid-cap companies may perform well.Policies under Trump could elevate inflation risks, impacting rate-sensitive sectors and potentially strengthening the dollar.Financials, like banks, could benefit from higher rates, while sectors such as real estate and growth equities might be negatively affected by higher interest rates.The overall positive market sentiment from Trump’s policies could offset potential negative impacts on rate-sensitive sectors. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

WTI drifts lower to near $71.50 on the bullish US Dollar

Nov 6, 2024 | 17:25 pm

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.45 on Thursday.

PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1659 vs. 7.0993 previous

Nov 6, 2024 | 17:16 pm

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1659, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0993 and 7.1679 Reuters estimates.

Vitol says China is restarting oil demand growth

Nov 6, 2024 | 17:01 pm

Vitol head of research:China will continue to play an important role in global oil demand.Global oil demand to peak only in the 2030s, later than expected due to lower pick-up in EVs and commitments to environmental targetsLPG, naphtha, and jet fuel to drive global oil demand growth in 2025-2030China is restarting oil demand growth on rising domestic crude output and net petroleum importsChina's road transportation oil demand has peaked, with petrochemicals driving consumption growthChina LNG truck sales fell sharply in September as the price gap with diesel narrowed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan not expecting Trump universal 10% tariff next year, but China faces high tariffs

Nov 6, 2024 | 16:50 pm

Trump campaigned on promises of across the board 10 to 20% tariffs on imports, but of 60% and over on those from China./ JP Morgan cite "procedural reasons" for their assessment that the chances of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low.However, they say that China will face significantly higher tariffs. Time to break out these old pics!** Its bipartisan, Biden's China tariffs, from earlier this year:Big week coming up for Biden to slap huge tariffs on China This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia’s Trade Surplus decreases to 4,609M MoM in September vs. 5,300M expected

Nov 6, 2024 | 16:39 pm

Australia’s trade surplus decreased to 4,609M MoM in September versus 5,300M expected and 5,644M in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

Australia Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts (5300M) in September: Actual (4609M)

Nov 6, 2024 | 16:31 pm

Australia Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts (5300M) in September: Actual (4609M)

Australia Imports (MoM) declined to -3.1% in September from previous -0.2%

Nov 6, 2024 | 16:31 pm

Australia Imports (MoM) declined to -3.1% in September from previous -0.2%

Australian imports and exports both fell m/m in September

Nov 6, 2024 | 16:31 pm

Australian trade data for September 2024Barely impacting on the Australian dollar. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia Exports (MoM) down to -4.3% in September from previous -0.2%

Nov 6, 2024 | 16:30 pm

Australia Exports (MoM) down to -4.3% in September from previous -0.2%

NZD/USD weakens below 0.5950 on stronger US Dollar, eyes on Fed rate decision

Nov 6, 2024 | 16:16 pm

The NZD/USD pair softens to around 0.5940 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday.

Trump 2.0 prompts USD surge

Nov 6, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar tracked lower through trade on Wednesday as markets responded to the US election and looming Trump victory. US equities, treasury yields and the US dollar all rallied as early counting suggested key battleground states were, while hotly contested, leaning toward Trump. With the former President gaining ground in key counties, a pall was cast over Democrat hopes and markets began extending support for the USD. After Trump won crucial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and control of the Senate returned to the Republicans, Americans have given Trump a clear mandate to enact his polices. Having opened the day trading near US$0.6640, the AUD fell steadily, giving up more than 1% before finding support. Having touched intraday lows at US$0.6517, the AUD then recovered to close back near US$0.6590. What does this mean for the AUD through the near term? Trump’s victory likely means a weaker Chinese economy as new and more punishing tariffs are introduced, while question marks surrounding the broader global trade landscape will weigh on risk sentiment. It is likely the AUD will face near term headwinds, and we look to China policymakers for a response to this election result. We expect the AUD will maintain supports on moves approaching US$0.64/65, but the prospect of a rally toward and through US$0.70 is likely delayed. Our attentions now turn to China Trade Data and US jobless claims and productivity numbers ahead of tomorrow’s all important Federal Reserve policy meeting. Key Movers With all eyes on the US election and the likely victory for Trump, markets pushed the Trump trade narrative, extending gains across US equities, yields and the US dollar. Having won the Electoral College vote comfortable and with republicans regaining the Senate, while the house remains too close to call, Americans have given Trump a clear mandate to enact key policies. We expect Trump will move quickly when he steps back into the White House, issuing tighter border controls and punishing tariffs. The US DXY index jumped 1.6% for the day as all 10 Major currencies gave up ground. The euro slipped back below US$1.0740 while the yen was another clear underperformer, allowing the USD to push back above 154.50. As the dust settles on this historic election result, our focus turns now to China Trade data, The Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting and the FOMC rate decision. We expect both the Fed and BoE to cut rates by 25 basis points. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6500 - 0.6620 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9500 - 1.9800 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.1000 - 1.1100 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9080 - 0.9220 ▼

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in September

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:38 pm

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in September

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) above forecasts (2.8%) in September: Actual (3%)

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:34 pm

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) above forecasts (2.8%) in September: Actual (3%)

Japan September wages data - real wages -0.1% y/y

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:31 pm

Japan wages data shows that 'real' wages, ie after adjustment for inflating prices, fell in September. September Labour Cash Earnings+2.8% y/yexpected +3.0%, prior +2.8% Real Cash Earnings -0.1% y/y, falling for the second month in a rowexpected +0.1%, prior –0.8%-- Real wages are a critical indicator of consumer purchasing power in Japan, falling again is not good news. At least the drop wasn't as bad as the awful result in August. Wages play a crucial role in determining when the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates again. The BOJ has stated that widespread pay increases need to accompany price growth for inflation to sustainably reach its 2% target. Last week, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that wages and prices are progressing as anticipated, indicating that the conditions for raising borrowing costs further are aligning. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) meets expectations (2.8%) in September

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:30 pm

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) meets expectations (2.8%) in September

EUR/USD falls apart on Wednesday in post-election Greenback rush

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:17 pm

EUR/USD plummeted during the midweek market session, falling over 1.75% into the red and tumbling back below 1.0750 for the first time since July.

RBA’s Bullock: Too early to judge US election, tariff implications

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:15 pm

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said on Thursday that it’s premature to assess the impact of the US presidential election outcome and tariff implications.

USD/CAD extends upside to near 1.3950, Fed rate decision in focus

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:08 pm

The USD/CAD pair extends the rally to near 1.3940 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

GBP/USD backslides in broad-market Greenback rally

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:02 pm

GBP/USD tumbled back below the 1.2900 handle on Wednesday as markets splurged on Greenback bids following the one-sided outcome of the US presidential election.

Japan survey points to over half of firms expecting to raise wages by at least 3% next FY

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:01 pm

Reuters Japan Corporate SurveyIn brief:Over half of Japanese firms plan to raise wages by 3% or more for the next business year, according to a Reuters survey.42% of firms expect wage hikes between 3% and 5%, while 9% foresee increases of 5% to 7%.41% anticipate wage increases between 1% and 3%.Survey conducted by Nikkei Research reached 505 companies, with 240 responses.More than two-thirds of firms plan wage hikes at the same level or higher than this year.Average wage increase this year was 5.1%, the highest in 30 years.52% of respondents intend to keep raising wages despite earnings fluctuations; others do not.Some firms express concerns about raising wages during poor earnings due to potential job losses.Nearly two-thirds believe Prime Minister Ishiba's 40% minimum wage increase target is unrealistic.Concerns about rising costs impacting smaller companies and risking bankruptcies were noted.83% of respondents prefer office-based work post-COVID, while 17% favor expanding remote work.Flexible work arrangements are seen as beneficial for attracting and retaining talent amidst labor shortages.The context of this survey is that decades of slow wage growth are seen as hindering domestic demand and economic sustainability, and that Bank of Japan Governor Ueda repeatedly emphasizes the need for sustainable wage increases to reconsider interest rate hikes (normalising monetary policy)---Survey conducted by Nikkei Research reached 505 companies, with 240 responses.ps, Japan's financial year runs April 1 to March 31We get Japanese wage data later:Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, November 7 - Japan wages, China and Australian trade This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea Current Account Balance rose from previous 6.6B to 11.12B in September

Nov 6, 2024 | 15:00 pm

South Korea Current Account Balance rose from previous 6.6B to 11.12B in September

Gold fades as Trump win fuels a US Dollar rally

Nov 6, 2024 | 14:49 pm

Gold plunged to a three-week low below $2700 a troy ounce on Wednesday after the 2024 US Presidential election.

Y'all set for four years of volatile FX tweet/headline trading?

Nov 6, 2024 | 14:41 pm

With Trump coming back from January 20 2025, Inauguration Day, get set for four years of headline trading. Trump's first term was characterised by policy-shift-by-tweet, often while he was (NSFW! warning) ... ummm ... using the bathroom (apparently!).This produced some wild swings in financial markets. ForexLive will, as always, have an eagle eye out for breaking news/tweets so you can jump on board. I've already read someone moaning about this, and yeah if you all set on some sort of position which is suddenly moved against you, you may well complain. But, the bright side is the moves that come from Trump tweets and such are tradeable. Brush up on headline trading!ps, that's a fake tweet, ignore it This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD plummets as Trump’s election strengthens USD

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:55 pm

Silver price slumped sharply on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.

Australian Dollar down after US presidential elections, RBA hawkishness might limit losses

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:39 pm

The AUD/USD pair plunged 1.25% to 0.6555 on Wednesday after Donald Trump's US presidential election victory sparked enthusiasm for the US Dollar.

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Buyers increase their efforts and approach 92.00

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:38 pm

In Wednesday's session, the NZD/JPY underwent upward fluctuations, gaining 0.96% to reach 91.80 and regaining key levels.

Brazil Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (11.25%)

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:31 pm

Brazil Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (11.25%)

US Vice President Kamala Harris speaking now - live link

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:27 pm

Harris giving her concession speech after the election. If you are interested: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Dow Jones Industrial Average soars 1,500 points after early US presidential election results

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:26 pm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged to a fresh record on Wednesday, climbing into 43,600 after US presidential candidate looks set to sweep a victory away from Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris.

Canadian Dollar retests familiar lows as markets pile into post-election push

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:25 pm

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) snapped a recovery against the Greenback on Wednesday, slipping back into familiar multi-year low territory after markets piled back into the USD following the US presidential election, where presidential candidate Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner.

Mexican Peso rebounds after US election results, inflation data eyed

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:24 pm

The Mexican Peso recovers some ground against the Greenback after hitting a two-year low.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bearish signals emerge as pair plunged after 20-day SMA rejection

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:18 pm

On Wednesday, the NZD/USD pair declined sharply by 1% to 0.5945, reflecting the strengthening US dollar across the board.

Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, November 7 - Japan wages, China and Australian trade

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:00 pm

Wages data from Japan will be eyed to give a clue on Bank of Japan rate hilkes ahead. The previous month's data for these were a little disappointing for the Bank:Disappointing data on wages ... not as yen positive as it could beSince that data we've had Japanese elections with political push back against rate hikes until wage growth improves (again):If there is certainty that wage growth will exceed 4% at next year's wage negotiations, BOJ can review monetary policyYes, next year! See the link for more.Trade data from Australia and China follow later. Neitehr should shove around major FX rates too much. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 7 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:00 pm

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Huge moves as the market digests a Republican sweep

Nov 6, 2024 | 13:00 pm

German Chancellor Scholz angles for an election before the end of MarchGerman chancellor Scholz: Our companies need help immediatelyBOC's Rogers highlights risks around higher rates after US electionThe US treasury auctions off $25B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.608%McConnell wants to see Trump tax cuts extendedRepublicans extend lead in the HouseCanada October Ivey PMI 52.0 vs 53.1 priorECB's De Guindos: The disinflation process is well underwayLagarde wants bigger banksGoldman Sachs lowers euro area 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.1% previouslyMarkets:Gold down $84 to $2660US 10-year yields up 15.5 bps to 4.44%WTI crude oil flat at $71.96S&P 500 up 2.5%Russell 2000 up 5.8%Nasdaq up 2.9%USD leads, JPY lagsBig congrats to those who put on Trump trades, particularly ones that bet on a red sweep as it became clearer through the day that Republicans would have a slight majority in the House. In terms of market moves, they basically unfolded as predicted with the Trump win: Stronger USD, higher Treasury yields, stocks up, bitcoin up. To be honest, it's a relatively rare political event where the market handicapped it right.And the moves were big, with the euro falling 200 pips and USD/JPY gaining 300 pips. China ETFs fell about 2.6% and that's a very strong indication that the market doesn't see the promised 60% tariffs coming. It's also an indication that the market thinks Beijing will unveil stimulus larger than the 10 trillion yuan touted on Friday or Saturday.Bonds got some slight relief in today's Treasury auction as demand was better than the market expected. That reeled in the yield rise to 16 bps from 24 bps at the extreme. There's a big debate about how much of a rate rise that stocks can withstand but for now, not even home builder stocks seem to be bothered.One loser was gold as it was hit by the combination of higher rates, a stronger US dollar and relieved fears of a contested election. Given all that, the $82 decline makes sense. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US Dollar at multi-months highs after Trump's victory

Nov 6, 2024 | 12:52 pm

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, surged to a four-month high after former US President Donald Trump secured the necessary electoral votes to become the next US president.

German Chancellor Scholz angles for an election before the end of March

Nov 6, 2024 | 12:43 pm

Add some political intrigue into the mix as German Chancellor Scholz says he will call for a confidence vote on Jan 15 that would allow for election before the end of March.He also highlighted that "of all the rich democracies, we have by far the lowest debt". That's the sort of thing a politician says right before he spends it. He highlighted that the Russian war on Ukraine is grounds for suspending debt rules. Of course, what he really means is that a US trade war and his faltering political fortunes are the real grounds, but time will tell if he gets the mandate he wants.His approval is at 18% and his party got just 14% of the vote in European elections in June. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

German chancellor Scholz: Our companies need help immediately

Nov 6, 2024 | 12:31 pm

Our companies need support immediately, anybody who refuses that is acting irresponsiblyGermany will have to take responsibility and help Europe hold togetherAfter US elections we need to show we could be relied onBut finance minister Lindner showed no willingness to implement any of our proposalsOf all the rich democracies, we have by far the lowest debtThis sounds like a guy who is in for a rough ride. I still can't believe the DAX opened so strongly before it turned around to finish 1.1% lower. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks stretch to fresh highs as yield edge lower following T-bond auction

Nov 6, 2024 | 12:19 pm

I would say that so far, markets are on their way to pricing in a return of Trump 1.0. What we don't know is if we'll get something closer to the Trump 2.0 who talked about 60% China tariffs and mass deportations.Time will tell and we will be trading the headlines.For now, equities love the idea of lower corporate taxes, even if it means higher borrowing rates. The S&P 500 is at a session high, up 147 points to 2930 or 2.6% while the Russell 2000 is up a remarkable 5.5%.The latest leg came after a 30-year auction that stopped through to 2.2 bps and helped to ratchet a 24 bps rise down to 16 bps. A big question is how high rates go from here and how badly that hurts rate-sensitive sectors like housing and autos. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Forex Today: Will the Fed add to the euphoria?

Nov 6, 2024 | 11:07 am

The Greenback was set for its biggest one-day gain since 2020, boosted by Trump’s victory and the rising chances of a “Red Sweep.” Up next is the Fed meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected by investors.

Regime change in politics, yes. But what about a regime change in the forex market?

Nov 6, 2024 | 10:59 am

George Saravalos at Deutsche Bank makes two spectacular points in the aftermath of the election.1) Beware regime shiftsHe's not talking about the political regime shift here, he's talking about a regime shift in markets in terms of how cross-asset classes interact."Global risk assets are taking their cue from US equities and generally doing well; in turn high-beta FX such as the commodity currencies are outperforming. We would be very cautious in extrapolating this price action and historical correlations going forward. The US election outcome in our view is historical in nature; it has the capacity to create a regime shift in markets whereby correlations break down due to highly idiosyncratic and divergent shocks between the US and the rest of the world. This is another way of saying it is entirely possible for one market to go up (US) and another to go down (rest of world) even if this has never happened before in history."2) A Trump/Republican policy mix is not priced inThe question isn't whether a Trump win is priced in, or a Republican sweep. It's 'what policies are priced in' and he argues that markets currently reflect a "very moderate mix" compared to what was campaigned on, particularly in terms of fiscal deficits and tariffs. That's led to benign pricing around inflation outcomes."If the Trump policy platform goes ahead, there is still much more to go in the dollar and broader FIC market pricing, in our view," he writes. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is getting beaten up on Trump's win but eye the pick for Treasury Secretary

Nov 6, 2024 | 10:26 am

Gold is down $78 today to $2666 on the combination of higher Treasure yields and a stronger US dollar following the election. There is also some element of 'sell the fact' and relief that we don't have a contested, uncertain result.It's a 2.8% daily drop but it's only a moderate setback in this year's 29% rally. I don't have an opinion on the short-term as momentum trades are likely to extend here but gold traders will want to keep an eye on Trump's selection for Treasury Secretary.A strong candidate is hedge fund manager John Paulson. The New Yorker ran a small merger arb firm before soaring into prominence and billionaire status by buying CDS on mortgage-backed securities in the sub-prime crisis. After that he became an outspoken gold bug, even establishing a gold-specific fund that was ultimately unsuccessful.Ultimately, he was a one-hit-wonder in markets but he bet on Trump early and has been auditioning for a spot in cabinet. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

United States 30-Year Bond Auction: 4.608% vs 4.389%

Nov 6, 2024 | 10:06 am

United States 30-Year Bond Auction: 4.608% vs 4.389%

The US treasury auctions off $25B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.608%

Nov 6, 2024 | 10:03 am

High Yield 4.608%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.63%Tail: -2.2 bps vs 6-month average 0.5 bpsBid to cover: 2.64X vs 6 month average of 2.4XDirects (a measure of domestic demand):27.1% vs. 6-month average of 16.58%Indirects (a measure of international demand): 62.7% vs 6-month average of 68.10%Dealers: 10.2% vs 5-month average of 15.32%Auction Grade: A-The 30-year coupon auction came in at a high yield of 4.608% which was -2.2 bps from the WI level at the time of the auction. The domestc bid was huge with 27.1% of the auction going to that sector. That is well above the 16.58% average over the last 6-months. The demand domesticilly crowded out the buyers from overseas which were lower at 62.7% vs 68.10% average. Bid to cover was above the average. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US treasury to auction $25B of 30 year bonds testing the buyers appetite

Nov 6, 2024 | 09:50 am

The US treasury will auction off $25B of the "grand-daddy of them all" coupon issue - the 30 year bond. That comes the day after the US political enviroment and economic environment changed with the election of Pres. Trump and the winning of the Senate and most likely the House as well. BMO previewed the auction saying the following:Today's $25 bn long-bond auction will offer a timely assessment of the demand for duration in a time of political transition. Trump is returning to the White House and as the market continues to digest the broader implications for the global economy, the results of the looming 30-year auction represent the biggest wildcard on the immediate horizon. One could make a plausible case that with the 47th President now confirmed, and 30-year rates back above 4.60% on a 20+ bp selloff in today's session alone, the magnitude of the post-election cheapening is likely to draw a meaningful amount of dip-buying interest. On the contrary, it's not difficult to envision a degree of apprehension based on the likelihood of another leg higher in yields. After all, a Trump victory has widely been associated with greater deficit spending and reflationary pressures associated with a pro-business agenda, tax cuts, and more aggressive tariffs. We've been gravitating toward the former viewpoint and as a result, we'll look for a stop-through at 1pm EST.-Vail Hartman and Ian LyngenThey added: ProsThe passage of the Election Day event risk should prove sufficient to entice dip buyers.The Treasury Department has reassured investors that coupon issuance will be stable for at least the next several quarters which has helped reduce a bearish supply impulse for the time being.The long bond has sold off more than 20 bp in today’s session alone and with 30-year rates back above 4.60%, the pent-up duration demand may translate to a strong bid from end users now that a major uncertainty has been removed from the near-term agenda.ConsNovember is seasonally negative for 30-year supply. Over the last fifteen years, nearly three-in-four long-bond auctions tailed (by an average of 2.7 bp). More recently, five of the last six 30-year new-issues tailed in November.Since 2015, 30-year refunding auctions tailed more than three-quarters of the time when the preceding 10-year new-issue stopped-through.Non-dealers have taken a decreasing allocation at each successive new-issue auction in 2024. End users claimed 80.8% of the issue in August – excluding the 75.3% awarded to non-dealers last November, this was the smallest allocation at a 30-year refunding auction since November 2021.Non-dealer demand was soft at the 30-year refunding auction that followed Trump's 2016 victory. The auction tailed by 1.6 bp and end users were allotted their smallest allocation of the year (66.9%).Below are the 6-month averages of the major components:Tail: 0.5 bpsBid to cover: 2.4XDirects (a measure of domestic demand): 16.58%Indirects (a measure of international demand): 68.10%Dealers: 15.32%The high yield at the last auction was at 4.39%. The current yield is at 4.628% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

UnitedHealth stock surges on Trump election win

Nov 6, 2024 | 09:02 am

UnitedHealth Group (UNH), the single largest weighting in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), has risen about 6% on Wednesday in light of Donald Trump’s reelection to the US presidency.

McConnell wants to see Trump tax cuts extended

Nov 6, 2024 | 08:50 am

Mitch McConnell was asked about Trump tax cuts and said “I’m sure virtually all of us would like to see most of that extended”.McConnell also called for increasing defense spending. It all adds up to some big deficits.It's not clear who will be the new Senate majority leader but three names that have floated are: John Thune, John Cornyn and John Barrasso.Some strong 'John' energy there! This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

At the close: European equities start off the Trump era 2.0 in the red

Nov 6, 2024 | 08:32 am

The only reason I can think of for the early strength in Europe stocks was a flow-driven unwind in volatility and option trades. In any case, the market later figured out that Trump's plan is to put tariffs on Europe.Closing changes:Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -1.1%France CAC -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -2.9%Italy's FTSE MIB -1.6%Eyes will be on DAX 19,000 tomorrow as key support. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman maintains 12 month S&P target at 6300.

Nov 6, 2024 | 07:53 am

Goldman Sachs is saying that they keep its 12 month target for the S&P at 6300. The high price today reached 5907. A move to the target would imply a gain of 5.08% from the high price today.Goldman says that downside risks are the prospect of a trade conflict. On the positive side is the prospects for changed regulatory and corporate tax policy. The S&P is on pace to close at a new record level today. The prior high closing level came in at 5864.67. The current price trades at 5887.45 up 103.85 points or 1.81%. That's it largest gain since August 8. The S&P is up 23.46%The Dow industrial average is leading the major indices with a gain of 1280 points or 3.03%. That gain would represent the largest one day gain since November 10, 2022. The Dow is on pace for a record close if it could stay above 43275.91. The current price trades at 43475.68. For the Dow, the index is up 15.44%The NASDAQ index is up 385 points or 2.08% for its largest gain since September 19. It is on pace for a record on a close above 18712.75. For the year the NASDAQ is up 25.4%.The small-cap Russell 2000 is up 100 points or 4.46%. That's its biggest gain since November 14, 2023 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +2149K vs +1103K expected

Nov 6, 2024 | 07:30 am

Prior was +5474Crude oil inventories +2149K vs +1103K expGasoline inventories +412K vs -878K expDistillates inventories +2947K vs -1137K expRefinery utilization +1.4% versus expectations of +0.3%Private inventory data released late yesterday:Crude +1643KGasoline -2019KDistillates -1478K Today's report is bearish for crude but ahead of the report, it had made an impressive comeback. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Harris to deliver concession speech at 6 pm ET (Update: might be 4 pm ET)

Nov 6, 2024 | 07:28 am

Harris will deliver a concession speech at 'around' 6 pm ET. Biden is also likely to speak today or tomorrow.It's way too early to talk about the future of the Democratic Party.Update: A separate report said the speech could come at 4 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Republicans extend lead in the House

Nov 6, 2024 | 07:18 am

The House has been looking like it would stay under Republican control for awhile but I think there is a big difference to a 1-2 seat majority compared to a larger buffer. A tiny margin runs the risk that a Congressman grandstands or flips.The latest forecast from Decision Desk has shifted a couple more seats and sits at 221 Republicans and 214 Democrats. That's still a very narrow margin historically but it provides a tiny bit of breathing room. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canada October Ivey PMI 52.0 vs 53.1 prior

Nov 6, 2024 | 07:00 am

Prior was 53.1Non-seasonally adjusted vs 54.5 priorThis is a low tier indicator but Canadian manufacturing is worth pondering on the loonie trade. Tariffs are a risk, but the currency is also near a four-year low. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

How to Trade the Trump and Republican Victory - 06 November 2024

Nov 6, 2024 | 01:55 am

Trump’s surprisingly emphatic victory in the US Presidential election campaign may change the fundamental outlook on the US stock market and the US Dollar, and generate a more bullish sentiment on US tech stocks.

Forex Today: Trump Wins Presidential Election - 06 November 2024

Nov 5, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Trump Projected to Win Popular Vote and All Swing States, Republicans to Win Senate; US Stock Markets, US Dollar Gain on Trump Win; Bitcoin Hits Record High

AUD outperforms as RBA leaves rates on hold and attentions turn to US election

Nov 5, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar outperformed through trade on Monday jumping back through US$0.66 amid a positive risk backdrop and a hawkish RBA. While the RBA left rates on hold yesterday it refused to be drawn on when it will commence its easing cycle, instead espousing the need to continue the fight against inflation. With the trimmed mean inflation rate still comfortably above the RBA’s 2-3% target band it is unlikely policy makers will issue a rate cut before May next year. It is clear the board is not yet comfortable that rates are tracking back toward the target as a risk to the upside remains in play. Having broken back above US$0.66 the AUD pushed toward intraday highs just short of US$0.6650 at US$0.6642 before settling and opening this morning at US$0.6630/40. Our attention now turns to the US election. The first polls will close around 10 AM AEDT and an election result will be unlikely before the close of business. With the hotly contested race, we expect whippy trades as votes are counted. A Trump win would add downward pressure on the AUD while a Harris victory could help the AUD extend back toward US$0.67/0.68. Key Movers The US dollar retreated against a positive risk backdrop as Americans hit polling stations on Tuesday. The DXY dollar index gave up nearly half a percent and was lower against all 10 major currencies. The euro and the GBP advanced 0.5% while the yen enjoyed modest gains too, up 0.4% for the day. US ISM data supported a narrative of US economic strength, helping lift US treasury yields and dispel fears of recession. With equities and risk assets rallying our attention now turns to the US election. The first polls will close around 10 AM AEDT and an election result will be unlikely before the close of business. Polls leading into the election suggest an extremely close race with the outcome hinging on just a handful of critical battleground states. We expect price action to remain whippy throughout the count as markets respond and adjust expectations as votes pour in. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6500 - 0.6700 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6020 - 0.6120 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9500 - 1.9700 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.1020 - 1.1120 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9150 - 0.9220 ▲

US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast: Harris to Prevail After Pennsylvania Dispute

Nov 5, 2024 | 04:33 am

Polls universally show a statistical tie, while betting markets are a flawed political predictor due to participant bias, suggesting that we are in for a disputed Presidential election.

Forex Today: All Polls Show Statistical Tie, But Betting Markets Expect Trump Victory

Nov 5, 2024 | 01:06 am

Polls Showing Statical Tie; Betting Markets Imply 58% Chance of Trump Victory; RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged

Iowa polling drives direction as Americans head to the voting booths

Nov 4, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar edged higher through trade on Monday as investors set about unwinding so called Trump trades. Markets reacted to a shock election poll in Iowa on the weekend that showed a significant shift in favour of Kamala Harris. While not considered a swing state, Iowa was a safe red seat for Trump through the 2016 and 2020 elections, so the 3-point Harris lead in polling could suggest a broader national swing in sentiment forcing markets to pare bets on a Trump victory. The Australian dollar edged back above US$0.66 through the domestic session, only to pull back toward US$0.6590 through overnight trade as the race to the White House remains too close to call. Our attentions turn now to a jam-packed 24-48 hours headlined by the RBA policy announcement, US election and Fed policy update. We expect the RBA will leave rates on hold while espousing the need to maintain the current setting well into 2025. With trimmed mean inflation still well above target at 3.5%, market pricing for a rate cut suggests the RBA will not move to lower rates until May 2025, while we look to policy makers for any clues that may indicate a rate hike is still on the table. Americans hit the polls today and with the outcome too close to call there is ample scope for volatility as votes are counted. With Trump holding a narrow lead across key swing states, a win for the former President will likely drive further US dollar gains and add some pressure on the AUD, while a Harris win opens the door for an AUD recovery back toward US$0.67/68. The Fed policy meeting on Wednesday looms large as another risk marker. After cutting rates by 50 points at their last meeting we expect policy makers will lower rates by a further 25 basis points before pausing to re-assess conditions in December. In other news, the China National People’s Congress meets today. If Trump wins we can expect policy makers will push to increase domestic demand and capacity, while a Harris election win will allow China to open up exports. We are keenly attuned to any commentary out of China this week that may help spark a broader economic recovery. The next 48 hours are critical in shaping near-term AUD direction. Key Movers Price action through Monday was dominated by US election polling and a shock report from Iowa that suggest Kamala Harris holds a 3-point lead across the state. While not a swing state, Iowa has been staunchly republican through the last 8 years, voting in favour of Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling suggests a blue swing led by older female voters should hand the state to Harris, if indicative of a broader shift in national sentiment it could help Harris ascend from the Vice Presidency to the Oval Office. Markets worked to unwind bets placed for a Trump win as the poll offers a stark reminder that this race is simply too close to call. With Americans heading to the polls today and either outcome well and truly on the table, we expect plenty of volatility across financial markets with medium term direction uncertain, while the votes are counted and the dust settles on what has been a bruising and divided election season. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6520 - 0.6680 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6020 - 0.6080 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9580 - 1.9820 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1050 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9100 - 0.9200 ▼

Forex Today: US Dollar Declines as Polls Show US Presidency Too Close to Call

Nov 3, 2024 | 23:26 pm

Polls Showing Near Dead Heat, But Trump Has Edge; Betting Markets Imply 57% Chance of Trump Victory; US Dollar Declines; Stock Markets Mixed

Aussie dollar declines further trading below US$0.66

Nov 3, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6574 at time of writing. The AUD/USD pair declined by 0.40% in Friday's session, pressured by a modest US dollar recovery and skepticism surrounding China's economic stimulus initiatives. Weak manufacturing data from China, as indicated by the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, has weighed on the Australian dollar, which is heavily influenced by China's economic health. China’s Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 50.3 in October, up from 49.3 in September, surpassing market expectations of 49.7. As China is a key trade partner for Australia, shifts in the Chinese economy could significantly influence Australian markets. On Friday Australia's Producer Price Index rose by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, following a 1.0% increase in the prior period and surpassing market forecasts of a 0.7% rise. This marks the 17th consecutive period of producer inflation. On an annual basis, the PPI growth slowed to 3.9% in Q3, down from the previous quarter’s 4.8% increase. Looking ahead this week and all eyes will be on the Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate announcement. The official cash rate is expected to remain at 4.35%. Key Movers The US dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, rebounded intraday despite the weak jobs data as annual wage inflation rose to 4%, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated. US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 while the unemployment rate remained low in October, a month distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike at Boeing Co. Nonfarm payrolls increased 12,000 last month, and hiring over the previous two months was weaker than previously thought, suggesting the underlying labor market continues to cool. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% and hourly earnings ticked up, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures released Friday. Business activity in the US manufacturing sector continued to contract at a faster pace in October, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropping to 46.5 from 47.2 in September. This figure came in below the market expectation of 47.6. The Services PMI rose to 54.9 in October, indicating a strong expansion in the US service sector. All eyes this week will be on Tuesday's US presidential election. On Thursday, the Fed's policymakers, led by Chair Jerome Powell, are on track to cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point, to about 4.6%, after having implemented a half-point reduction in September. Economists expect another quarter-point rate cut in December and possibly additional such moves next year. Over time, rate cuts tend to lower the costs of borrowing for consumers and businesses. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6500 - 0.6700 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9450 - 1.9650 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9050 - 0.9250 ▼

Aussie dollar is steady trading below US$0.66

Oct 31, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is steady this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6577 at time of writing. The Australian dollar remains steady following the release of mixed economic data from Australia and China’s NBS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Thursday. However, hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy outlook continued to support the Aussie dollar and limit the downside of the AUD/USD pair. In September, seasonally adjusted Australian Retail Sales rose by 0.1% month-over-month, falling short of the expected 0.3% and significantly down from the 0.7% growth seen in the previous month. On a quarterly basis, Retail Sales increased by 0.5% in Q3, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in the prior quarter. Earlier this week Australia's annual inflation rate fell to 2.8 per cent, down from 3.8 per cent mid-year, slightly lower than expectations. It's the lowest annual inflation rate in three and a half years. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), prices rose by 0.2 per cent in the September quarter, compared to the 1 per cent rise in the three months through June. Looking ahead today we will see the release of the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI), which is another leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services, the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. Key Movers The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds from the day’s low of 103.80 and turns flat, at the time of writing. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a five-month low last week and consumer spending increased more than expected in September, showcasing the economy's strength heading into the final stretch of 2024 and just days before next Tuesday's presidential election. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Oct. 26, the lowest level since May, the Labor Department said. The third straight weekly decline likely reflected the fading distortions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which boosted claims in early October and kept them elevated through the middle of the month. The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average retreated to 236.50K, marking a decrease of 2.250k from the prior week’s revised average. The US PCE Price Index rose moderately by 2.1% YoY in September, lower than the previous 2.2%, but below the consensus of 2.2%. Core PCE, more relevant for the Fed, remained steady at 2.7%, against market expectations of a decline to 2.6%. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6500 - 0.6700 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9500 - 1.9700 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9050 - 0.9250 ▲

Bank of Japan Maintains Rate Policy as Expected

Oct 31, 2024 | 05:34 am

Bank of Japan maintains interest rates at 0.25%, Governor Ueda says inflation moving in line with expectations. Japanese yen rises sharply.

Forex Today: Gold Breaks to New Record High; US GDP Data Disappoints

Oct 31, 2024 | 00:50 am

Gold Trades as High as $2,790 Per Ounce; US Stock Market Indices Close Lower After Advance GDP Slows; Betting Markets Imply 64% Chance of Trump Victory Next Week; No Surprises from Bank of Japan

U.S Election: Possible Effects on the Financial Markets

Oct 30, 2024 | 07:41 am

U.S financial markets and global assets will be affected by the outcome of the U.S Election results. Traders who are contemplating betting on the outcome of the vote need to understand they are stepping into very dangerous terrain.

How the US Presidential Election Will Affect Capital Markets

Oct 30, 2024 | 03:01 am

The US general election will soon conclude, electing a new President and making changes to both Houses of Congress. The outcome is very likely to impact capital markets, so traders and investors will be wise to consider the implications of various potential outcomes and position themselves to profit.

Forex Today: Gold Breaks to New Record High; Bitcoin, US Stock Indices Near Records Too

Oct 30, 2024 | 00:26 am

Gold Trades as High as $2,788 Per Ounce; Bitcoin a Whisker Below All-Time High Price; US Stock Market Indices Gain and Trade Near Highs; Betting Markets Imply 64% Chance of Trump Victory Next Week; Australian Inflation Lower Than Expected

Forex Today: Bitcoin Breaks to 4-Month High Price

Oct 29, 2024 | 02:14 am

Bitcoin Seen as Boosted by Trump Poll Lead; Gold a Whisker Off Record High Price; Betting Markets Imply 64% Chance of Trump Victory Next Week

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Plummets as Ruling Coalition Loses Majority

Oct 28, 2024 | 00:36 am

Yen Sees Strong Selloff on Japanese Election Result; Crude Oil Stabilizes as Israeli Strike on Iran Digested; Precious Metals Within Sight of Major Highs

Will the US Election Affect the Stock Market?

Oct 22, 2024 | 23:07 pm

With the US presidential election just two weeks away, anticipation is growing. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck in the opinion polls, which has added to the drama of this unpredictable race.

Canada’s Inflation Lower than Expected

Oct 16, 2024 | 05:06 am

Canada’s inflation rate continues to fall and was lower than expected in September. The CPI rose 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2% in August and below the market level of 1.8%.

US Inflation Dips to 2.4% in September

Oct 10, 2024 | 08:23 am

The US consumer price index (CPI) continued its downswing, dropping slightly in September. Inflation fell to 2.4% year-on-year.

Forex Today: S&P 500 Hits Record High Ahead of US CPI Data

Oct 10, 2024 | 01:41 am

Markets Await Crucial US CPI Data, Expecting Fall to 2.3%; FOMC Meeting Minutes Show Participants Overly Dovish

Forex Today: RBNZ Cuts Rates by 0.50%, Kiwi Falls

Oct 8, 2024 | 23:24 pm

RBNZ Cuts Rates as Expected; Markets Await FOMC Meeting Minutes

Forex Today: Slower Fed Cuts Consensus Hardens

Oct 7, 2024 | 23:15 pm

US Treasury Yields Trade Above 4%, Markets Expecting only a Further 0.50% Cut in 2024; Quiet Market Expected

Forex Today: US Dollar, Yields Strong on “No Landing” Speculation

Oct 6, 2024 | 23:26 pm

Friday Saw Strong US Jobs & Earnings Data, Boosting Greenback; US Treasury Yields Soar; Japanese Currency Ambassador Monitoring Market

Forex Today: Stocks Fall & Dollar Firms on Iranian Military Escalation

Oct 1, 2024 | 23:46 pm

Iran Attacks Israel With Hundreds of Missiles, Entire Israeli Population Shelters for an Hour; US Dollar Rises, Stocks Fall Except in China; Crude Oil Firms on Fears of Escalating Mideast Conflict

Forex Today: Powell’s More Hawkish Tone Boosts Greenback

Sep 30, 2024 | 23:33 pm

Fed Chair Powell Signals No Rush To Cut Rates ; US Dollar & Treasury Yields Advance; German Preliminary CPI Lower Than Expected

Forex Today: China Soars, Japan Slumps

Sep 29, 2024 | 23:52 pm

Japanese Nikkei 225 Index Plunges by Over 4%, Chinese HSI Up By 4%; AUD, NZD Advance in Forex Market, Yen Surges Further on Ishiba Win

Forex Today: S&P 500 Index, Euro, British Pound Retreat from Highs

Sep 25, 2024 | 23:33 pm

S&P 500 Closes at New Record High; GBP/USD Briefly Breaks $1.3400, EUR/USD Trades at 1-Year High; Gold Remains Bullish; Markets Await SNB Policy Meeting, US Final GDP

Forex Today: Gold Reaches New Record High of $2,670

Sep 25, 2024 | 00:09 am

Gold Trades at $2,670 Record in Tokyo Session; S&P 500 Closes at New Record High; GBP/USD Powers to 2.5 Year High; Australian CPI Falls to 2.7% as Expected

Australian Central Bank Maintains Cash Rate at 4.35%

Sep 24, 2024 | 03:27 am

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 4.35% following the latest meeting of the Bank’s Board on Tuesday. RBA’s Bullock says no cuts expected for “near term”. Australian dollar shows limited reaction as the RBA decision was expected.

Forex Today: RBA Leaves Rated Unchanged at 4.35%

Sep 23, 2024 | 23:35 pm

RBA Has Little Effect on Aussie; Gold Trades at $2,638 Record in Tokyo Session; Stock Markets Remain Bullish as S&P 500 Closes at New Record; Markets Await Australian CPI Data

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record High

Sep 22, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Gold Trades at $2,631 in Tokyo Session; Stock Markets Remain Bullish; Markets Await Flash Manufacturing & Services Data

United States Federal Reserve Chops Rates by 0.50%

Sep 19, 2024 | 01:36 am

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday by 0.50%, or 50 basis points, bringing the benchmark interest rate to a target range of 4.75 percent to 5.50 percent.

Forex Today: Stock Markets Rising Again After Fed Volatility

Sep 18, 2024 | 23:22 pm

US Fed Cuts by 0.50%, Promises 0.50% More By 2025; Risky Assets Decline Then Rebound on “Sell the Fact”; Gold, S&P 500 Index Trade at New All-Time Highs; Markets Await Bank of England, Bank of Japan

Forex Today: S&P 500 Touches Record Ahead of Fed Meeting Today

Sep 17, 2024 | 23:20 pm

S&P 500 Closes Lower After Touching All-Time High; CME FedWatch Tool Shows 65% Expect Deep Rate Cut; Markets Mostly Consolidate Ahead of Fed Meeting; Canadian Inflation Dips; UK Inflation Data Awaits

TRADING RESOURCES

Forex News Live Today: The Ultimate Source for Forex News

The Latest Forex News Live Today:

Comments