Forex News Live Today: The Ultimate Source for Forex News ☀️

South32 Limited Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:50 pm

Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) SOUTH32 LIMITED – S32.

ECB’s Villeroy: Balance of risks on growth and inflation is shifting to the downside

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:49 pm

Speaking at a conference in Tokyo on Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that “the balance of risks on growth and inflation is shifting to the downside.” Additional comments Victory against inflation is in sight in Europe.

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj down to -25 in November from previous -22

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:30 pm

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj down to -25 in November from previous -22

Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) unchanged at 3.7% in October

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:30 pm

Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) unchanged at 3.7% in October

EUR/GBP holds thin gains near 0.8350, fears downside risks due to cautious BoE

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:28 pm

EUR/GBP appreciates after two days of losses, trading around 0.8340 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

Williams-Sonoma stock jumps 30% to all-time high on strong Q3

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:26 pm

Williams-Sonoma stock soared 30% Wednesday after Q3 earnings.

USD/INR climbs ahead of US data, Fedspeak

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:25 pm

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline on Thursday. The heightened geopolitical tensions and market reactions due to Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections drag the local currency lower.

FX option expiries for Nov 21 NY cut

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:22 pm

FX option expiries for Nov 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

BoJ’s Ueda: Technological advancements bring new risks to financial stability

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:18 pm

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda doesn’t touch upon monetary policy and economic outlook during his scheduled appearance on Thursday.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: The crucial support level emerges near 100.00

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:12 pm

The AUD/JPY cross trades in a narrow range near 101.05 during the early European session on Thursday.

Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:07 pm

Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Gold price clings to gains near weekly high on worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:04 pm

Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs its weekly uptrend for the fourth straight day and climbs to the $2,660 area, or a fresh one-and-half-week high during the Asian session on Thursday.

Australian Dollar remains steady as US Dollar edges lower, weekly Jobless Claims awaited

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:01 pm

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent losses on Thursday, buoyed by a hawkish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) concerning interest rates.

Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Nov 20, 2024 | 21:00 pm

Gold prices rose in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:56 pm

Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY back below 155.00, Bitcoin above 96K

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:51 pm

Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Hammack, Goolsbee, BarrICYMI - OPEC+ could further extend voluntary cuts at its December meetingChinese government advisers call for steady 5% 2025 economic growth goal, strongr stimulusThere are at least 10 European Central Bank officials speaking on ThursdayU.S. Department of Justice asks judge to force Google to sell off Chrome internet browserUS firms plan for Trump China tariffs - stockpiling, raising prices?, bailing out of ChinaBank of England's Catherine Mann speaking ThursdayCHF traders note - Two Swiss National Bank speakers due Thursday, November 21Heads up for Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaking at 0510 GMT, 0010 US Eastern timeDeutsche Bank is wary of a 'significant correction' for US equitiesAdani dollar bond prices fell sharply following charges against Chairman AdaniTSMC expected to build one new fabrication facility a year in Taiwan over the next decade.PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1934 (vs. estimate at 7.2482)Westpac revise its RBA forecast - see later but faster interest rate cutsSouth Korea 1 - 20 November trade data: Exports jump 5.8% y/yJapan's economic package expected around 21.9 trillion yenUBS continue to see gold and oil as hedges against macroeconomic, geopolitical riskBoA Securites raised US growth and inflation forecasts, see fewer Fed interest rate cutsTrump aims to revive the Keystone XL pipeline (politics report)BlackRock bitcoin ETF options indicating BTC/USD to $176K in 2026New Zealand Treasury plans to cut economic and fiscal forecastsICYMI - (nearly) 90% of economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut by 25bp in DecemberMore from Fed's Collins - too early for Fed to factor in the election impactTrade ideas thread - Thursday, 21 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasNvidia shares down after Q3 results beatNvidia earnings Q3 2024: Adj. EPS 0.81 (expected 0.75), Revenue 35.08bn (exp 33.12bn)Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 20 Nov: Fed's Bowman more hawkish. 20 year auction ugly.Fed's Collins looks to be on the fence re a December interest rate cut The US dollar lost some ground during the Asia session with a higher EUR, AUD, CHF and, most notably, JPY. There was little news nor data out of Japan to account for the drop in USD/JPY from its high in early trade above 155.50 to lows circa 154.90. We did get a rumour of the size of the government fiscal package, NHK (Japan’s national broadcaster) saying around 21.9 trillion yen (circa 141bn USD equivalent). We heard from Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins after the US cash (equity) close. Collins was non-committal on her December FOMC view. In brief:Some additional rate cuts needed.Policy still restrictive.Doesn’t want to cut rates too quickly.Overly slow rate cuts could hurt the labour market.Final destination of rate cuts is unclear. No such indecision from the People’s Bank of China at today’s USD/CNY reference rate setting. The Bank sought to prop up the yuan again, setting the mid-rate about 550 points lower than the modelled estimate of 7.2482. The PBoC is seeking to support the yuan by damping USD/CNY gains. For tech traders, the US Department of Justice has asked a judge to make Google divest Chrome browser, along with other punitive measures. This was foreshadowed in the days leading up to today. Bitcoin rose above USD96,000 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CHF edges lower amid geopolitical tensions; holds above 0.8800 on bullish USD

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:51 pm

The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's recovery from the vicinity of the 0.8800 mark or a one-week low and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Thursday.

Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:46 pm

Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

EUR/USD edges higher to near 1.0550, downside risks appear due to safe-haven flows

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:44 pm

EUR/USD appreciates slightly after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 1.0550 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:38 pm

Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:36 pm

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Japanese Yen stands firm near daily top against USD, looks to BoJ's Ueda for fresh impetus

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:36 pm

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and drags the USD/JPY pair away from the weekly top touched the previous day.

ICYMI - OPEC+ could further extend voluntary cuts at its December meeting

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:30 pm

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1. Reuters (out overnight) cite unnamed sources for info:It may push back output increases when it meets on Dec. 1 due to weak global oil demandaccording to three OPEC+ sources familiar with the discussionsMinisters last shelved the increase for a month when they met virtually on Nov. 3Two other OPEC+ sources said it was too early to say what the group will decide.If you think that OPEC+ is just Saudi Arabia and Russia you'd be off track ... but not by too much, these two are the biggies. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China's government advisers advocate for 2025 growth target of around 5%

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:28 pm

Four Chinese government advisers advocated for a 2025 growth target of around 5%, similar to this year, Reuters reported on Thursday.

Chinese government advisers call for steady 5% 2025 economic growth goal, strongr stimulus

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:20 pm

Reuters with the info. Chinese government advisers recommend a 2025 economic growth target of around 5%, despite challenges from U.S. tariff hikes and slowing global demand.Some advisers suggest lower targets of "above 4%" or a 4.5%-5% range.Maintaining a lofty target aligns with President Xi Jinping's vision of doubling China's economy by 2035.Advisers advocate for stronger fiscal policies to counter tariff impacts, including raising the budget deficit above this year's 3% of GDP and increasing domestic demand.Potential measures include issuing more special treasury bonds for infrastructure and offering consumer subsidies.Advisers emphasize balancing short-term stimulus with structural reforms (e.g., tax and welfare changes) to address long-term imbalances.Beijing recently announced a 10 trillion yuan debt package for municipal relief but may reserve further stimulus until U.S. tariff actions become clearer.The background to the calls for ongoing stimulus includes Trump’s proposed tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports that could reduce growth by up to 1 percentage point.Many manufacturers have already shifted production abroad to avoid existing tariffs.Exports accounted for 20% of China's GDP in 2023 but contributed only 2.2% to net GDP growth.A hit to exports without offsetting domestic demand could exacerbate deflationary pressures and weaken growth./*/* This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bears have the upper hand while below 200-period SMA on H4/164.00

Nov 20, 2024 | 20:07 pm

The EUR/JPY cross meets with a fresh supply following the previous day's good two-way price swings and trades around the mid-163.00s during the Asian session on Thursday, down 0.20% for the day.

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD trades above 1.2650

Nov 20, 2024 | 19:54 pm

GBP/USD trades above 1.2650, upside potential seems limited due to cautious Fed GBP/USD edges higher to near 1.2650 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday.

GBP/USD trades above 1.2650, upside potential seems limited due to cautious Fed

Nov 20, 2024 | 19:46 pm

GBP/USD edges higher to near 1.2650 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday.

US firms plan for Trump China tariffs - stockpiling, raising prices?, bailing out of China

Nov 20, 2024 | 19:28 pm

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Probably most interesting, for China, are moves to diversify supply chains away from the country:American businesses are dusting off a playbook they used during Trump’s first term: stocking up on imported goods before tariffs are enactedalso considering how to cope with the levies if and when enacted—whether they will be able to raise priceswhether they will need to find alternatives to their Chinese manufacturersThe piece quotes an electronics manufacturer in Guangdong province:company has observed an increase in inquiries and “noticeable unease” from its U.S. clients tariffs so far haven’t affected sales significantlybut that buyers end up absorbing the levies and sometimes raising prices for their end customersInteresting times! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $31.00 due to escalated Russia-Ukraine conflict

Nov 20, 2024 | 18:47 pm

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around $31.00 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

Adani dollar bond prices fell sharply following charges against Chairman Adani

Nov 20, 2024 | 17:56 pm

U.S. authorities allege Chairman Gautam Adani and seven others paid $265 million in bribes to Indian government officials. Adani Group has not commented on the allegations as yet.The price of Adani dollar bonds fell in early Asia trade.Reuters reports Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone: Bonds maturing in August 2027 fell over five cents on the dollar.Adani Electricity Mumbai: Bonds maturing in February 2030 dropped nearly eight cents.Adani Transmission: Bonds fell more than five cents, trading slightly above 80 cents.The price drops are the most significant since February 2023, when Hindenburg Research released a critical report on Adani Group’s debt and tax practices. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

WTI steadies near $69.00 amid geopolitical risks, rise in US crude stock

Nov 20, 2024 | 17:34 pm

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.95 on Thursday.

TSMC expected to build one new fabrication facility a year in Taiwan over the next decade.

Nov 20, 2024 | 17:31 pm

Taiwan's economy minister says that TSMC is expected to construct one new fabrication facility annually in Taiwan over the next decade.added that Taiwan needed to ensure adequate power and water resources to support these facilities,Also, said that TSMC’s fabs in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan, are “ready to go” likely indicating that the necessary power and water infrastructure is already in place. **The background to this is that TSMC is preparing to begin 2nm mass production at its Kaohsiung P1 and P2 fabs next year, with plans to establish a total of four fabs at the site.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1934 vs. 7.1935 previous

Nov 20, 2024 | 17:16 pm

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1934, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1935 and 7.2482 Reuters estimates.

South Korea 1 - 20 November trade data: Exports jump 5.8% y/y

Nov 20, 2024 | 16:52 pm

South Korean trade data for the first 20 days of the month is encouraging for exports:+5.8% y/y vs. a -0.2% for October (full month)Not so much for imports:-1.0% y/yMorgan Stanely noted risks for SK from the new incoming US admin:“Supply chains would face significant rewiring pressures, and the disruption faced by the corporate sector would meaningfully slow the capex cycle,” “Asia’s growth could decelerate meaningfully, with the more trade-oriented economies like Korea and Taiwan facing more downward pressure.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia : When great isn't enough

Nov 20, 2024 | 16:46 pm

Nvidia, the titan of artificial intelligence and GPU innovation, crushed Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations with impressive sales and earnings while delivering a forecast that topped even the most optimistic estimates.

Japan's economic package expected around 21.9 trillion yen

Nov 20, 2024 | 16:44 pm

That's around 141bn USD. Earlier this week Japanese Economic Revitalisation Minister Akazawa empasized that its crucial the p[package contains measures to boost wages. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ECB’s Stournaras: 2% inflation target to come in early 2025

Nov 20, 2024 | 16:33 pm

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said on Wednesday that the Eurozone is on the cusp of sustainably reaching 2% inflation, putting the onus on officials to avoid undershooting that goal, per Bloomberg.

UBS continue to see gold and oil as hedges against macroeconomic, geopolitical risk

Nov 20, 2024 | 16:12 pm

UBS analysts continue to highlight gold and oil as strategic hedges against the prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, forecasting notable price increases for both commodities in the coming years. The bank projects gold prices to reach $2,900 per ounce by September 2025, driven by a confluence of factors, including expectations of lower interest rates, uncertainty surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda, and robust central bank purchases globally. "Gold's role as a safe-haven asset remains compelling given these dynamics," UBS noted. On the oil front, UBS anticipates Brent crude to rise to $80 per barrel, citing supply constraints and a likely underestimation of demand growth. Additionally, the bank flagged potential disruptions in crude exports and production from Iran and Venezuela, particularly if geopolitical pressures intensify under Trump's second term. "Tighter market conditions could amplify upward pressure on oil prices," UBS added. These forecasts underscore the bank's view that both commodities offer resilience in the face of heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian Dollar on the slide as tensions rise in Ukraine/Russo war

Nov 20, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar resumed its downturn on Wednesday, sliding back below US$0.65. With little of note on the domestic agenda, the AUD traded sideways for much of the local session, tracking between US$0.6520 and US$0.6540 before a risk off mood enveloped markets and drove the currency toward intraday lows at US$0.6487. Reports of military action between Ukraine and Russia targeting key military marks seems to have prompted a risk off run toward safe haven assets. The escalation has renewed concerns that nuclear weapons may be deployed. With the potential of a Russian response, many major embassies in Ukraine have temporarily closed, further elevating market concern. Reports from the US that Trump has appointed Howard Lutnick as his commerce secretary elevated concerns the US will aggressively push it strategic program of tariffs, come 2025. The CNY gave up ground, marking fresh highs not seen since mid-July, with losses spilling over into the AUD. Our attentions turn to RBA Governor, Michele Bullock, as she speaks at the Women in Payments conference. We don't expect major deviations from the RBA Governor, and instead anticipate US politics and global geopolitical tensions will continue to drive direction. Key Movers The USD resumed its uptrend on Wednesday, advancing against major counterparts amid another risk off shift. US equities weakened on the day, while US treasury yields maintained a narrow range, trading between 4.39% and 4.44%. UK CPI inflation for October was stronger than expected, with annual inflation jumping from 1.7% to 2.3% on the back of higher energy costs. The print reinforced calls for the Bank of England to leave rates on hold next month, while British fiscal policy will likely limit the opportunities for cuts through 2025. The GBP climbed back through 1.27 following the print before sliding back below 1.2650 amid a risk off shift. Reports of escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia has renewed fears nuclear weapons may be deployed. The USD edged upward as markets sort haven assets and opens higher this morning. With little of note on the macroeconomic docket, our attentions remain with US politics and Russo/Ukraine tensions as key markers guiding risk sentiment. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6100 - 0.6200 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9300 - 1.9600 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.1020 - 1.1120 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9050 - 0.9150 ▼

Trump aims to revive the Keystone XL pipeline (politics report)

Nov 20, 2024 | 15:13 pm

US politics website POLITICO with the report. Trump plans to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline on his first day back in the White House.The yoyo ride so far:The Keystone XL pipeline's U.S.-Canada border permit was rejected by President Obama in 2015, approved by Trump in 2017, and revoked by Biden (the most-bullish President for oil in history) in 2021.After Biden's decision, TC Energy, the pipeline's developer, abandoned the project and removed installed segments.TC Energy no longer owns the pipeline system, and any effort to rebuild would require new local permits.U.S. oil production has reached record levels, reducing the economic necessity of Canadian crude imports to the Gulf Coast.Canadian oil exports hit record levels in 2024, aided by a new pipeline link to the West Coast, making Keystone XL less critical.Full report is here. Old pic. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Treasury plans to cut economic and fiscal forecasts

Nov 20, 2024 | 14:47 pm

Reports out of New Zealand today that New Zealand Treasury plans to revise economic and fiscal forecasts due to a sustained slowdown in productivity.In brief:Economic recovery, previously expected in late 2024, is now anticipated to begin later, according to Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens.Slower economic growth is reducing tax revenue, increasing challenges for the government to balance its budget.The government reported a larger-than-expected deficit for 2023-24 but committed to disciplined public spending to achieve a surplus.Productivity levels in 2024 have reverted to pre-pandemic levels, with contractionary manufacturing and service activity indicating minimal growth.***As for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. New Zealand’s economy contracted in Q2 2024, prompting the RBNZ to cut rates twice, this year, so far. Another reduction is expected at the November 27 meeting. The benchmark rate was cut by 50 basis points to 4.75% in October, following a prior August cut (first since March 2020). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 21 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Nov 20, 2024 | 13:46 pm

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 20 Nov: Fed's Bowman more hawkish. 20 year auction ugly.

Nov 20, 2024 | 13:10 pm

Fed's Collins looks to be on the fence re a December interest rate cutLate day rally pushes Dow and S&P up. Nasdaq lower but well off lowsECBs Stournaras: ECB policy has tamed inflationCrude oil futures settled at $68.87US treasury sells $16 million of 20 year bond the high yield of 4.680%More from Bowman:It's concerning we're recalibrating policy w/out reaching inflation goalFed's Bowman: Fed may be closer to neutral policy then policymakers currently thinkMore from BOE's Ransden: October CPI data only marginally above BOE's forecastMore from Cook:Productivity is such a long run stable trend that exceeding it is very hardEuropean indices close lowerBOE Ramsden: Recent trends toward loan relatively stable inflation should continueFed's Cook: If inflation progress slows w/ jobs still solid, could see pauseWeekly oil inventory data from the EIA is due soon. The private survey showed a huge buildBitcoin trades to another new record high at $94,852Tech sector shifts: Investor focus on software innovation and defensive playsUS Commerce award $1.5B to GlobalFoundries as part of the Chips ActWhat technical levels are in play for some of the major currencies vs the USDForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar starts to perk up againUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 15 November +1.7% vs +0.5% priorMarkets:Gold up $16.73 or 0.63% had $2648.75US 10-year yield 4.415%, +3.7 basis pointsUS 2-year yield 4.320%, +4.9 basis pointsWTI crude oil down nine cents at $69.08S&P 500 unchangedNASDAQ fell -0.11%Russell 2000 unchangedDow up 0.32%The US dollar moved back higher after a few days of declines. The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.46%EUR, +0.52%JPY +0.53%GBP, +0.28%CHF +0.25%CAD +0.18%AUD +0.44%NZ +0.66%D The economic calendar was void of any economic releases today. However, there was two Fed Governors who spoke. FIrst Feds Lisa Cook spoke and was ambidextrous in her economic and policy views. She said:Fed's Cook highlighted that the U.S. economy is in a strong position, with robust growth, a largely normalized labor market, and signs of continued disinflation. While core inflation remains somewhat elevated, housing services are the primary driver of this excess. Cook noted that recent wage growth moderation boosts confidence in further disinflation, though inflation progress may slow, potentially warranting a pause in rate adjustments. She emphasized that past rate cuts were significant in removing policy restrictions, with future adjustments depending on data, outlook, and risk balance, which she described as roughly even. Cook also pointed to the potential for underestimated productivity gains, particularly from AI, suggesting the economy's underlying potential could be higher than expected. She acknowledged diminishing downside risks to jobs and reaffirmed that labor market weakness in recent data reflects temporary factors like strikes and storms. Looking ahead, she indicated that continued growth with easing inflation may justify further reductions in policy rates toward neutral, though elevated inflation suggests the Fed’s work is not yet complete.Later Fed's Michelle Bowman also spoke, but her comments were more hawkish:Bowman emphasized the need for a cautious and flexible approach to monetary policy, noting that the central bank may already be closer to a neutral policy rate than many policymakers believe. She highlighted that her estimate of the neutral rate is significantly higher than pre-COVID levels and supported the November Fed rate cut as a gradual move toward easing. Bowman expressed concerns about recalibrating policy without fully achieving inflation goals, noting that progress in lowering inflation appears to have stalled, with elevated inflation and strong demand for affordable housing contributing to persistent price pressures. While the economy remains strong and the labor market is near full employment, Bowman acknowledged potential risks to price stability and noted that unemployment is below her estimate of full employment, with weaker hiring contributing to its recent rise. She also emphasized the importance of patient, cautious adjustments and policies that support workforce mobility, particularly citing challenges in labor availability, including those faced by her own farming family. Lastly, Bowman reiterated that Congress would need to mandate any central bank digital currency if deemed necessaryThe US treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 year bonds and the usual 1 PM, and investors did not show up. The auction high yield came in 3.0 basis points above the WI level at the time of the auction. The Bid to cover was below the six-month average and the dealers were saddled with a whooping 22.6% of the auction versus the six-month average of 11.2%. UGLY. Yields moved higher today help by a comments mostly from Bowman along with the poor auction results. A snapshot of the market shows:2-year yield 4.305%, +3.4 basis points5- year yield 4.273%, +2.5 basis points10 year yield 4.406%, +2.7 basis points 30 year yield 4.591%, +2.6 basis pointsIn Europe, ECB's Stournaras stated that the ECB's monetary policy has successfully tamed inflation and expects it to converge to the 2% target by early 2025. He emphasized the need for the ECB to avoid an inflation undershoot as conditions evolve. Stournaras noted that interest rates are likely to remain restrictive for an extended period, but sees given persistent downside risks to Eurozone growth (so why keep rates restrictive?).Technically speaking:EURUSD: The EURUSD started the day with a modest extension higher that took the price to the high of a swing area target at 1.06097. The price also got closer to its falling 200-hour moving average. That moving average currently comes in 1.05958. The subsequent fall to the price below its 100 hour moving average at 1.05617. A correction after the break tried to extend back above that moving average level, but quickly reversed. That push the pair back down toward the low from last Friday's trade at 1.04956. The low price reach 1.0506 which was good enough for a new low for the day and week, but momentum cannot be sustained in the price bounced back higher into the close. The current price is trading at 1.0534. That is below the 100-hour moving average of 1.05617, but above the low price from last Friday and lowest level for the year (going back to October 2023).USDJPY: The USDJPY higher in the Asian session and in the process extended[…]

Late day rally pushes Dow and S&P up. Nasdaq lower but well off lows

Nov 20, 2024 | 13:01 pm

Buying into the US close, sent the Dow industrial average into positive territory. The S&P index is closing unchanged.The NASDAQ index is still closing down on the day but well off its lows. At session lows the NASDAQ was down -263.08 points andIs closing the day down only 28 points.A snapshot of the closing levels shows:Dow industrial average rose 139.53 points or 0.32% at 43408.47S&P index rose 0.23 points or 0.0% at 5917.22 NASDAQ index closed down -21.32 points or -0.11% at 18966.14 The small cap Russell 2000 close unchangedNvidia earnings will be announced after the close with volatility expected at plus or minus 8%. Data center ($28.5B) and guidance will be eyed ($0.82 and $36.78). Data center guidance is $31.96B. Gross margins will also be of interest with expectations of around 75% for the current quarter and expectations of 73.5% in Q4 guidanceNvidia shares closed at $145.89 down $1.12 or -0.76% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia earnings after the close. What is expected?

Nov 20, 2024 | 12:22 pm

Nvidia will announce its earnings after the close today. Sharea are lower today with the price trading down about -$3.00 or -2.10%. at $144.00. The all-time high closing level is at $148.88.What are the expectations?Earnings ExpectationsAdjusted quarterly earnings: $0.74 per share versus $0.40 last year (85% YoY increase)Revenue: $33.2 billion versus $18.12 billion last year (84% YoY increase)Fiscal Q4 sales guidance: $37.7 billion (KeyBanc estimate, down from $40 billion) Fiscal Q4 earnings outlook: $0.83 per share (KeyBanc estimate, down from $0.88 per share)Analyst Sentiment90% of Wall Street analysts recommend buying the stockKeyBanc maintains Overweight rating and $180 price targetDriversStrong demand for AI infrastructure and Blackwell AI chips. Jensen Huang called demand for it's newest Blackwell chip "insane" back on October 3Growing demand in robotics and traditional computing sectorsEmerging demand from AI software developersChallengesReported overheating issues with Blackwell servers (unconfirmed by Nvidia)Supply chain challenges around production rampIncreased pressure among China hyperscalers to use domestic AI solutions.Last quarter earnings came in at $0.68 versus $0.647 estimate. Revenues were at $30.04 billion versus $28.74 billion. Shares fell -6.38% from $125.61 to a closing level to $117.59 the next day. The price fell -18.14% to its low close on September 6 at $102.83 before starting its rebound to the upside which reached a new record level of $149.77 intraday on November 8.Shares in 2024 are up about 192% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures settled at $68.87

Nov 20, 2024 | 11:37 am

Crude oil futures are settling at $68.87. That is down $0.52 or -0.75%.The weekly EIA inventory data today showed:Crude oil inventories build of 0.545Mvs build 0.138M estimate. Prior week +2.089 millionGasoline inventories build of 2.054M vs build 0.859M estimate. Prior week -4.407MDistillate inventories drawdown of -0.114M vs drawdown -0.020M estimate. Prior week -1.394MCushing inventories drawdown of -0.140M vs. drawdown -0.688M last week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US treasury sells $16 million of 20 year bond the high yield of 4.680%

Nov 20, 2024 | 10:14 am

US treasury sell $16 billion of 20 bonds a high yield of 4.68%: High yield 4.68% WI level at the time of the auction 4.65%.Tail 3.0 basis points versus the six-month averages 0.1 basis pointsDirects (domestic buyers) 7.9% versus six with average of 17.2%Indirects 69.5% versus six-month average of 71.6%Dealers 22.6% vs six with average of 11.2%Auction Grade: FThere are no redeeming qualities of the auction with low domestic demand, below average international demand, a tail of 3.0 basis points, well above the 0.1 bp average over the last 6 months. The Dealers are caught holding the bag and needed to distribute the balance. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US treasury is to sell $16 billion of 20 year bonds at the top of the hour

Nov 20, 2024 | 09:54 am

The US treasury will sell... well auction.... $16 billion of 20 year bonds at the top of the hour.The six-month averages of the major components shows: Bid to cover 2.60XTail 0.1 bpsDirects (domestic demand): 17.2%Indirects (international demand): 71.6%Dealers: 11.2% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

European indices close lower

Nov 20, 2024 | 08:42 am

The major European indices are closing lower. The German DAX and Italy's FTSE MIB is on a four-day losing streak. German DAX, -0.31%France's CAC, -0.43%UK's FTSE 100 -0.17%Spain's Ibex unchangedItaly's FTSE MIB -0.29%Looking at European benchmark 10 year yields: Germany 2.345%, unchangedFrance 3.097%, +1.1 basis pointsUK 4.473%, +2.6 basis pointsSpain 3.055%, +0.3 basis pointsItaly 3.575%, +2.2 basis points As London/European traders head for the exits, US stocks are weak and lower as well:Dow industrial average -112 points or -0.26% at 43156S&P index -38 points or -0.65% at 5879NASDAQ index -149 points or -0.79% at 18837Russell 2000 is down -10.26 points or -0.44% and 2314.60.In other markets:Crude oil is trading near unchanged at $69.24Gold is trading up $17.20 or 0.65% at $2649.06.Silver is trading down $0.12 or -0.38% at $31.05.Bitcoin is trading up $1300 at $93,753. The digital currency hit a new record high $94,942. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Weekly crude oil inventory data shows build of 0.545M vs 0.138M estimate

Nov 20, 2024 | 07:31 am

The weekly EIA inventory data shows: Crude oil inventories build of 0.545Mvs build 0.138M estimate. Prior week +2.089 millionGasoline inventories build of 2.054M vs build 0.859M estimate. Prior week -4.407MDistillate inventories drawdown of -0.114M vs drawdown -0.020M estimate. Prior week -1.394MCushing inventories drawdown of -0.140M vs. drawdown -0.688M last week.The private inventory data released late yesterday showed: Crude oil is trading at $69.21. That's down marginally on the day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Weekly oil inventory data from the EIA is due soon. The private survey showed a huge build

Nov 20, 2024 | 07:12 am

As a heads up the private (API) survey released Tuesday afternoon showed a much bigger build than was exp[ected:Oil - private survey of inventory shows a large headline crude oil build vs expectationsComing up at 1030 US Eastern time (1530 GMT) is the data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA publishes the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) every Wednesday, providing a comprehensive overview of the nation's petroleum supply and demand. This report includes data on crude oil and refined products such as gasoline and distillates, detailing production, imports, exports, and inventory levels. It serves as a crucial indicator for market participants, offering insights into supply dynamics and potential price movements. For instance, the report released on November 14, 2024, highlighted a 2.1 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, while gasoline stocks decreased by 4.4 million barrels, reaching their lowest level since November 2022. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Broader indices trading lower to start the new trading day

Nov 20, 2024 | 06:38 am

The broader US stock indices are trading lower to start the new trading day: S&P index -9.50 points or -0.16% at 5907NASDAQ index -45 points or -0.26% at 18937.50Dow industrial average up two points or 0.01% at 48274 Russell 2000 -5.87 points or -0.25% at 2318.91Shares of Nvidia trading down $1.50 or -1.03% at $145.54 ahead of earnings after the close.What are the expectationsEarnings ExpectationsAdjusted quarterly earnings: $0.74 per share versus $0.40 last year (85% YoY increase)Revenue: $33.2 billion versus $18.12 billion last year (84% YoY increase)Fiscal Q4 sales guidance: $37.7 billion (KeyBanc estimate, down from $40 billion)Fiscal Q4 earnings outlook: $0.83 per share (KeyBanc estimate, down from $0.88 per share)Analyst Sentiment90% of Wall Street analysts recommend buying the stockKeyBanc maintains Overweight rating and $180 price targetLast quarter earnings came in at $0.68 versus $0.647 estimate. Revenues were at $30.04 billion versus $28.74 billion. Shares fell -6.38% from $125.61 to a closing level to $117.59 the next day. The price fell -18.14% to its low close on September 6 at $102.83 before starting its rebound to the upside which reached a new record level of $149.77 intraday on November 8.Shares in 2024 are up 195.5%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks are looking to open little changed ahead of Nvidia earnings after the close

Nov 20, 2024 | 06:18 am

The major US stock indices are little changed in premarket trading. Earlier higher gains have been eroded ahead of the opening bell in around 14 minutes.Dow industrial average up 53 pointsS&P index up 0.77 pointsNASDAQ index +6.5 pointsComcast is to spin off its cable networks. Shares of the company are up $0.28 or 0.66%Target financed earnings that disappointed. EPS came in at $1.85 versus $2.29. Revenues were $25.67 billion which was less than $25.87 billion expected. Shares are down $-27.38 or -17.55% at $128.97.Nvidia will announce earnings after the close. Shares are trading up $0.19 or 0.12% at $147.20 in premarket trading.In the US debt market, yields are higher:2-year yield 4.308%, +3.6 basis points5-year yield 4.292%, +4.5 basis points10 year yield 4.429%, +5.1 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US Commerce award $1.5B to GlobalFoundries as part of the Chips Act

Nov 20, 2024 | 06:14 am

The US Chips Act was a bipartisan supported legislation designed to incentivize the building of chip manufacturing in the US. TSMC and Intel have been some of the key beneficiaries and as such each are building new facilities for manufacturing. The awarding of $1.5 billion to global foundry's seems to be part of that chips act fundingAt risk is the change in administrations and the Trump preference to support tariffs over grants. As a result,U.S. officials are rushing to finalize $39B in Chips Act manufacturing grants, primarily for Intel, before President Biden's term ends.$30B remains tied up in complex negotiations, with Intel's share reaching up to $11.5B for projects in AZ, NM, OH, and OR.Commerce highlights 125K jobs and significant domestic investment as key program benefits. Other details on the chips actThe White House vowed to implement the Chips Act "with speed and efficiency" citing its national-security and economic importance.Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has championed U.S. chip manufacturing to address geopolitical competition with China.Rising chip plant costs, exceeding $20B for cutting-edge factories, and overseas incentives have reduced U.S. production to 10% of global output.Taiwan Semiconductor received the first major grant of up to $6.6B for Arizona projects, while lengthy negotiations have frustrated companies and business groups.Intel, despite delays, remains committed to working with both the Biden and Trump administrations to restore U.S. chip-making leadership.Pres. Trump announced Howard Lutnick as the new head of the Commerce Department. The Chips Act will be a key barometer for gauging the preferences of the new administration. It was not long ago that supply chain shocks including chip shortages for automobiles, sent prices sharply to the upside. Having domestic production would have eased that pain. Also the threat to Taiwan from China is a key geopolitical risk that would impact chip supply for vital industries in the US (and elsewhere too). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

UK Inflation Soars to 2.3% in October - 20 November 2024

Nov 20, 2024 | 06:05 am

UK inflation rose to 2.3% year-on-year in October, compared to 1.7% in September. This was higher than the market estimate of 2.2%. The main drivers of the gain were higher housing prices and the rise in the government’s energy cap

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar starts to perk up again

Nov 20, 2024 | 04:28 am

Headlines:Dollar holds firmer in European morning tradeUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The JPY remains the weakest among the majorsS&P 500 Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upsideECB's de Guindos: Current low growth environment has more to do with structural policyECB sounds warning on "bubble" in AI stocks in latest financial stability reviewUK October CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y expectedEurozone negotiated wage growth seen accelerating in Q3Germany October PPI +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expectedUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 15 November +1.7% vs +0.5% priorEconomists see Trump tariffs to cut China GDP by around 0.5% to 0.9% next yearXi calls on Scholz to reconcile issue of EU tariffs on Chinese EVsMarkets:USD leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields up 5.1 bps to 4.429%Gold down 0.1% to $2,628.43WTI crude up 0.5% to $69.76Bitcoin up 1.4% to $93,583The dollar is starting to perk up again in trading today, following a bit of a breather in the past two days.There wasn't much to trigger the dollar gains as traders just fell back to the post-election mood in the European morning session. USD/JPY was an early mover, gaining to around 155.20 in the handover from Asia before extending gains to around 155.80 currently.That comes as bond yields are also tracking higher on the day. And it wasn't long before the dollar caught stronger bids across the board.EUR/USD moved down from 1.0580 to 1.0550 while GBP/USD is pulled lower from 1.2700 after a hotter UK CPI report to 1.2665 currently.Elsewhere, USD/CAD is back up by 0.3% to near 1.4000 while AUD/USD is down 0.5% to test the 0.6500 mark once more.Looking to broader markets, equities are cautiously higher with watchful eyes on Nvidia's earnings after the close. Meanwhile, gold is marginally lower as the dollar and higher yields are keeping the rebound this week in check for a bit.Besides that, Bitcoin is also seeing renewed bids amid the return to the post-election mood, at least for now. The cryptocurrency is seen up over 1% above $93,500. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Forex Today: Canadian Inflation Ticks Higher - 20 November 2024

Nov 19, 2024 | 22:45 pm

Canadian Median CPI up to 2.5%; Bitcoin Touches New Record High, Coils for Breakout; Stock Markets Higher; US Dollar Rally Gives Up More Gains

AUD extends shallow recovery in face of risk off mood

Nov 19, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The AUD extended its recovery through Tuesday edging another 0.3% higher despite a short and sharp risk off move. Fears the war between Russia and Ukraine will escalate to include the use of nuclear weapons forced investors toward haven assets, driving the AUD back below US$0.65 to intraday lows at US$0.6486. As tensions eased and a calm settled over markets analysts unwound risk off moves allowing the AUD to resume its short-run recovery. The AUD pushed back through US$0.65 edging higher through overnight trade to open just short of US$0.6535. Yesterday’s RBA minutes showed policy makers harbour lingering concerns their inflation forecasts are still subject to upside risks. Supply capacity, productivity growth and restrictive international trade policy continue to weigh on markets dampening the effectiveness of rate hikes. Of note were comments within the minutes that suggest the board is looking for “more than one good quarterly inflation outcome” before it considers reducing rates. While there is still some chance of a February rate adjustment hopes are fading and it is unlikely we will see a rate adjustment before May. The minutes helped boost longer run AUD rate expectations and are perhaps adding a floor beneath the AUD at a time when other major central banks build into easing cycles. Today, our attention turns to China loan data, UK CPI numbers, euro area wage data, and US treasury performance. Key Movers There is plenty to digest this morning after a risk off move enveloped markets overnight. New Ukraine had fired a series of long-range missiles into Russia and reports President Putin had upgraded Russia’s nuclear doctrine enabling Russia to utilise its vast nuclear arsenals against non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers. The fear of another escalation in tensions in Europe’s east pushed investors toward haven assets and cleaved through FX and equity markets. The USD and JPY lurched upward with the DXY index moving back through 106.50 before the Russian Foreign Minister helped assuage fears stating, “We are strongly in favour of doing everything possible not to allow nuclear war to happen”. As calm was restored to markets investors set about retracing the day's earlier moves and most majors opened this morning in much the same positions as yesterday. The Canadian dollar was the day's strongest performer up 0.33% following its CPI data print. Headline CPI rose faster than anticipated in October rousing doubts as to whether the Bank of Canada will apply another 50-point cut before year-end. Markets are now pricing a 30-point adjustment before year-end suggesting analysts are divided between a 25- and 50-point adjustment. Our attention now turns to UK CPI inflation data, euro Area wage data, and the latest US treasury auction. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6500 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6100 - 0.6200 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9300 - 1.9600 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.1000 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9050 - 0.9150 ▼

Forex Today: Bitcoin Keeps Coiling Below Record High

Nov 18, 2024 | 23:59 pm

Bitcoin Consolidates Below $93k Again; Stock Markets Higher; US Dollar Gives Up Some Gains

AUD edges upward as USD falters

Nov 18, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar found support on Monday as the US dollar enjoyed a slow start to the week. Having tested fresh lows near US$0.6450, the AUD rebounded back through US$0.65 in the later hours of the overnight session. US treasuries traded sideways and an absence of major headline news flow saw markets take stock of recent dollar gains and the opportunity to square positions and take profit. The question now is, is this the beginning of an AUD consolidation? We still see significant headwinds in play for the AUD. The Trump effect is likely to weigh on the currency as the spillover effects of tariffs weigh on China and global demand, subsequently dampening demand for the AUD. That said, the US dollar is starting from a higher base than it did in 2016 and a Trump victory was largely priced in. Risks stem from the uncertainty associated with Trump's second stint in the White House. Should Trump adopt a more aggressive US policy stance, the AUD could slide toward and through US$0.63, while a moderated US stance could help fuel a rebound back toward US$0.66/67. We expect to make ongoing revisions to forecasts as policy details emerge through early 2025. For now, our attentions turn to European wage data and US housing starts while Trump news continues to drive direction. Key Movers The US dollar fell on Monday as US equities rallied and treasury yields traded sideways amid a lack of headline news flow. Having enjoyed early gains, the dollar performed an abrupt about-face during overnight trade, giving up gains and tracking lower against all majors outside the Japanese yen. With the euro and GBP finding support, the dollar index opens this morning three-tenths of a per cent below Friday’s close. The Japanese yen was the day's notable underperformer, failing to capitalise on US dollar softness, tracking lower after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda refused to be drawn on whether policymakers will lift rates next month. With the yen under pressure, markets were looking to Ueda to support the currency and his failure to do so has forced a correction in market expectations for the BoJ’s December meeting. It seems clear policymakers are bent on assessing risks and additional data received. Our attentions turn now to European wage data, US housing starts and Canadian CPI data while stories about President-elect Trump and his cabinet appointments continue to drive direction. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6550 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6080 - 0.6180 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9300 - 1.9600 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.1000 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9080 - 0.9180 ▲

Forex Today: Bitcoin Threatens New Bullish Breakout

Nov 17, 2024 | 23:36 pm

Bitcoin Approaching $93k Again; Chinese Policy Support Gives Stocks Minor Bid; Bank of Japan Leaves Rate Hike Timing Open; US Dollar Consolidating

Aussie dollar trading below US$0.65

Nov 17, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6453 at time of writing. The AUD/USD pair rose by 0.20% in Friday's session. The Australian dollar staged a comeback as the US dollar Index pulled back from its yearly highs. However, the Aussie dollar may face challenges due to recent weak domestic and Chinese economic data. China’s Retail Sales rose 4.8% year-over-year in October, surpassing the expected 3.8% and the 3.2% increase seen in September. Meanwhile, the country’s Industrial Production grew by 5.3% YoY, slightly below the forecasted 5.6% but higher than the 5.4% growth recorded in the previous period. Last week Australia's unemployment rate remained steady in October, at 4.1 per cent, as the number of employed people increased by 15,900, in seasonally adjusted terms. But economists say the pace of employment growth was noticeably slower last month than in previous months, and it may be the start of a slowing trend. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is forecasting the unemployment rate to creep up to 4.3 per cent by the end of this year, and a slowdown in the pace of employment growth would be in line with those forecasts. Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data show the number of people in full-time employment increased by 9,700 in October, while part-time employment increased by 6,200, in seasonally adjusted terms. It brought the total growth in employment to 15,900. In September, employment increased by 61,300. In August, it rose by 45,800. In July, it rose by 49,400. In June, it rose by 48,500. Looking ahead this week and on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. Key Movers The US dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar's performance against six major currencies, has pulled back from its yearly high of 107.06 recorded on Thursday. This decline is attributed to a slowdown in "Trump trades." At the time of writing, the DXY trades near 106.50. U.S. retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and electronic goods, suggesting the economy kicked off the fourth quarter on a strong note. The fairly upbeat sales report on Friday, which was accompanied by sharp upward revisions to September's data, together with news of a rebound in import prices last month, prompted traders to pare back expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday "the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." Retail sales rose 0.4% last month after an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, would climb 0.3% after a previously reported 0.4% gain in September. Stocks fell Friday, putting major indexes in the red for the week as the election-fueled rally that took stocks to a series of record highs fizzled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively. All three indexes lost ground this week. The Dow declined 1.2%, while the S&P and Nasdaq each recorded their biggest weekly declines since September after shedding 2.1%, and 3.2%, respectively. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6350 - 0.6550 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9250 - 1.9450 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0850 - 1.1050 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.8950 - 0.9150 ▲

AUD extends losses as markets temper bets for Fed rate cut in December

Nov 14, 2024 | 16:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar Another day and another new post-election low for the AUD. With US treasury yields enjoying further gains and the US dollar DXY index making a new 2024 high the AUD downtrend continued. Having broken below US$0.65 on Wednesday the AUD extended toward US$0.6450 marking fresh lows at US$0.6453 before finding support. Domestic labour market data printed largely in line with consensus expectations, however, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, comfortably below the RBA’s forecasted 4.3%. Stability across the employment landscape does afford the RBA more license to leave rates higher for longer in its bid to cull inflation. Most analysts are now pricing in a first rate cut in May 2025. This however did little to help support the AUD as US momentum remains in vogue, while commodity prices and China growth concerns generate added downside risk. Iron ore led declines across key industrial commodities down 2.2% for the day. Our attentions turn now to China Activity data, EU and UK economic forecasts and US retail sales. Key Movers The US dollar extended gains Thursday as US treasury yields edged higher. US yields edged nearer 4.5% touching 4.48% overnight before settling just below 4.45%. Comments from Fed Chair Powell helped drive gains as he noted in an address that the recent performance of the US economy has been “remarkably good”. Stability across the labour market and key consumer metrics gives policy makers license to adopt a careful approach to further interest rate cuts forcing analysts to temper bets for a December rate adjustment. With the USD advancing against all G10 majors the DXY index poked its head above 107, marking a new 12 month high. The JPY and CHF were among the worst performers while the Euro eyed a break below 1.05 and Sterling dipped below 1.2650. We expect momentum to remain with the USD as our attentions turn now to China Activity data, EU and UK economic forecasts and US retail sales. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6500 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6080 - 0.6180 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9500 - 1.9800 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.1000 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9000 - 0.9100 ▼

Forex Today: Bitcoin Within Sight of $100k

Nov 13, 2024 | 23:27 pm

Bitcoin Reaches $93k; US Annualized Inflation Rises to 2.6% as Expected, Fed Members Worry Over Cuts; US Dollar Index Rises to 2-Month High, With EUR/USD and USD/CAD Showing Year+ Highs; Non-US Stocks Weak on Trump Fears

US Inflation Rises to 2.6% in October

Nov 13, 2024 | 10:39 am

US inflation for October 2024 accelerated to 2.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations. Core inflation remains unchanged at 3.3%, and the US dollar climbed against the major currencies today.

Forex Today: Trump Trade Cools as Markets Await US Inflation Data

Nov 13, 2024 | 00:00 am

US CPI Expected to Rise to 2.6%; Bitcoin Finally Hits $90,000 Before Retracing; All Major US Stock Market Indices Decline; US Dollar Index Rises to 2-Month High, With EUR/USD and USD/CAD Showing Year+ Highs ; Non-US Stocks at 3-Month Low on Trump Fears

Forex Today: Bitcoin Explodes to Almost $90,000

Nov 11, 2024 | 23:49 pm

Bitcoin Trades Near $90,000; All Major US Stock Market Indices Again Trade at Record Highs; US Dollar Gains, ‘Trump Trade’ Seen Driving Markets

Forex Today: Trump Trade Sends Bitcoin, US Stocks to Record Highs

Nov 10, 2024 | 23:28 pm

Bitcoin Exceeds $80,000; All Major US Stock Market Indices Futures Trade at Record Highs; Public Holidays in USA, Canada, France

Bank of England Trims Rates by 0.25%

Nov 7, 2024 | 05:57 am

Bank of England (BoE) cuts key interest rate by 0.25%, with the British pound posting strong gains. The UK budget could complicate the BoE’s rate path.

Forex Today: US Fed, Bank of England Both Expected to Cut Rates by 0.25%

Nov 6, 2024 | 23:31 pm

US Federal Reserve, Bank of England Expected to Cut Rates by 0.25% Today; All Major US Stock Market Indices Trade at Record Highs, US Dollar Losing Bullish Momentum; Trump Projected to Win Popular Vote by 3.5% and All Swing States, Republicans to Win Senate; Bitcoin Retraces From Record High

How to Trade the Trump and Republican Victory

Nov 6, 2024 | 01:55 am

Trump’s surprisingly emphatic victory in the US Presidential election campaign may change the fundamental outlook on the US stock market and the US Dollar, and generate a more bullish sentiment on US tech stocks.

Forex Today: Trump Wins Presidential Election

Nov 5, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Trump Projected to Win Popular Vote and All Swing States, Republicans to Win Senate; US Stock Markets, US Dollar Gain on Trump Win; Bitcoin Hits Record High

US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast: Harris to Prevail After Pennsylvania Dispute

Nov 5, 2024 | 04:33 am

Polls universally show a statistical tie, while betting markets are a flawed political predictor due to participant bias, suggesting that we are in for a disputed Presidential election.

Forex Today: All Polls Show Statistical Tie, But Betting Markets Expect Trump Victory

Nov 5, 2024 | 01:06 am

Polls Showing Statical Tie; Betting Markets Imply 58% Chance of Trump Victory; RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged

Forex Today: US Dollar Declines as Polls Show US Presidency Too Close to Call

Nov 3, 2024 | 23:26 pm

Polls Showing Near Dead Heat, But Trump Has Edge; Betting Markets Imply 57% Chance of Trump Victory; US Dollar Declines; Stock Markets Mixed

Bank of Japan Maintains Rate Policy as Expected

Oct 31, 2024 | 05:34 am

Bank of Japan maintains interest rates at 0.25%, Governor Ueda says inflation moving in line with expectations. Japanese yen rises sharply.

Forex Today: Gold Breaks to New Record High; US GDP Data Disappoints

Oct 31, 2024 | 00:50 am

Gold Trades as High as $2,790 Per Ounce; US Stock Market Indices Close Lower After Advance GDP Slows; Betting Markets Imply 64% Chance of Trump Victory Next Week; No Surprises from Bank of Japan

U.S Election: Possible Effects on the Financial Markets

Oct 30, 2024 | 07:41 am

U.S financial markets and global assets will be affected by the outcome of the U.S Election results. Traders who are contemplating betting on the outcome of the vote need to understand they are stepping into very dangerous terrain.

How the US Presidential Election Will Affect Capital Markets

Oct 30, 2024 | 03:01 am

The US general election will soon conclude, electing a new President and making changes to both Houses of Congress. The outcome is very likely to impact capital markets, so traders and investors will be wise to consider the implications of various potential outcomes and position themselves to profit.

Forex Today: Gold Breaks to New Record High; Bitcoin, US Stock Indices Near Records Too

Oct 30, 2024 | 00:26 am

Gold Trades as High as $2,788 Per Ounce; Bitcoin a Whisker Below All-Time High Price; US Stock Market Indices Gain and Trade Near Highs; Betting Markets Imply 64% Chance of Trump Victory Next Week; Australian Inflation Lower Than Expected

Forex Today: Bitcoin Breaks to 4-Month High Price

Oct 29, 2024 | 02:14 am

Bitcoin Seen as Boosted by Trump Poll Lead; Gold a Whisker Off Record High Price; Betting Markets Imply 64% Chance of Trump Victory Next Week

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Plummets as Ruling Coalition Loses Majority

Oct 28, 2024 | 00:36 am

Yen Sees Strong Selloff on Japanese Election Result; Crude Oil Stabilizes as Israeli Strike on Iran Digested; Precious Metals Within Sight of Major Highs

Will the US Election Affect the Stock Market?

Oct 22, 2024 | 23:07 pm

With the US presidential election just two weeks away, anticipation is growing. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck in the opinion polls, which has added to the drama of this unpredictable race.

Canada’s Inflation Lower than Expected

Oct 16, 2024 | 05:06 am

Canada’s inflation rate continues to fall and was lower than expected in September. The CPI rose 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2% in August and below the market level of 1.8%.