Trevor Mottl, managing director at Lazard Labs, speaks to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about how machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) can inform and transform the investment process – from idea generation to position sizing to risk management. He tells Raoul about the AI team he runs at Lazard Asset Management that uses machine learning to identify patterns in markets too complex for the human brain to recognize in order to reliably generate alpha too obscure for human investors to reliably capture. Mottl also breaks down his three-piece framework of finance – which includes pricing, time horizon, and liquidity – and explains how this framework has shaped his investment philosophy and informed his macro outlook. Filmed on May 5, 2020.
Raoul and James Aitken end their conversation with a discussion on how to deploy capital in a crisis. They discuss credit and equities, and Aitken believes that energy is within his circle of confidence. They conclude by talking about companies that we need to be able to restart the economy at a good place.
Raoul is back with James Aitken and they are back talking about the “liquidation phase.” They speak about what will happen if growth continues to trend down. There are fears of the largest “insolvency event.” They go into discussing the difficulties that bars and restaurants will face when deciding to reopen, and how we are looking for recovery. Aitken believes the global economy has turned off, and 1 billion people are waiting for a bailout at home. They end by discussing the possibility of state and local bailouts within the United States.
Raoul is back with James Aitken and they are discussing the currency markets. They discuss the US dollar and the Fed, and why the dollar isn’t weakening. Furthermore, they discuss the flow of dollar securities and the flow of them. They end by taking about Aitken’s trip to China, and the interesting aspects of the Chinese banking system.
Real Vision’s own Raoul Pal and James Aitken discuss the ECB, and the future plans for preventing fragmentation in Europe going forward. Aitken elaborates, saying that the ECB is receiving very cheap funding, and talks about their balance sheets. They then talk about bonds, and how there is a “colossal” amount of bonds to be issued. Aitken and Raoul discuss how the next few quarters are likely to be tough ones, with the possibility for Great Depression like numbers. They end by discussing a variety of topics, such as treasury securities and yields.
This week Real Vision use Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the latest conversations about monetary policies that continue to stack the rebound in favor of risk assets and large corporates, at the expense of the real economy. Are these policies continuing to damage the economy despite the recovery in equities? The Chatter looks at the sell-off in the US dollar and puts the bull vs bear debate in historical context. The Whisper looks at the potential rise of both bankruptcies and the zombie company.
James Aitken, partner at Aitken Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the intricate relationship between bond and FX markets and how this often overlooked connection is playing out at this critical juncture of the credit cycle. Aitken and Pal put the recently announced central bank policies – remarkably generous swap lines, sweeping repo facilities, and the revival of quantitative easing (QE) – in proper context and analyzes how central banks' commitment to be the "buyers of first resort" will affect cross-currency basis swaps, yields on corporates, and the U.S. dollar. Aitken also describes his investing framework to deploying capital in this unprecedented economic crisis.
This week Roger Hirst is joined by multiple guests to explain what alternative data is and how it is being used in the world today.
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss a roaring day on Wall Street as the U.S. labor market breathed a sigh of relief. Looking at everything from tech valuations to the AUD/USD trade, Raoul and Ash dive deeper into this jam-packed news day to see whether the economy really is on the mend. In the intro, Jack Farley touches on these themes and previews Raoul’s interview with Gerard Minack.
In a different type of interview, Raoul Pal and Dylan Grice end their conversation with some different questions. They delve into a myriad of personal questions, such as “If you could interview anyone who would it be?” and “What are you reading right now?” Dylan Grice a great and thoughtful response to what books are his favorites, and elaborates why. They also go into Grice’s heroes, and many other personal questions that are a very nice change of pace that give us a personal view.