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Weekly Market Outlook (20-24 May)

May 19, 2024 | 03:54 am

UPCOMING EVENTS:Monday: PBoC LPR, Fed’s Waller.Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Canada CPI.Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, UK CPI, FOMC Minutes.Thursday: New Zealand Q1 Retail Sales, Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs, Eurozone Negotiated Q1 Wage Growth, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales, US Durable Goods Orders. MondayThe PBoC is expected to leave the 1-year and 5-year LPR rates unchanged at 3.45% and 3.95% respectively. Last week, the central bank maintained the MLF rate unchanged at 2.50%, which is generally a reliable precursor for a change in the LPR rates. We got some mixed economic data recently but overall it looks like the PBoC doesn’t have an urgent reason to ease policy further.TuesdayThe Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.9% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.5% vs. 0.6% prior. The focus will be on the underlying inflation measures though as that’s what the BoC cares most about. The Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.9% vs. 3.1% prior, while the Median CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.7% vs. 2.8% prior. Such readings or even lower should give the BoC enough confidence to deliver the first rate cut in June as they would be within their 1-3% target band. WednesdayThe RBNZ is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50%. The central bank has limited tolerance for an increase in the time to achieve its 1-3% inflation target. The latest Q1 CPI report showed inflation easing further, while the labour market report saw another uptick in the unemployment rate and job losses in the first quarter. The market expects the RBNZ to ease policy in August while the central bank continues to repeat that it doesn’t expect to normalise policy before 2025. The UK CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.1% vs. 3.2% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 3.7% vs. 4.2% prior. The BoE is mostly focused on services inflation, so that’s what will have the major impact on market’s expectations. As a reminder, we will have another CPI report before the next BoE meeting, but if this week’s inflation data comes out good, the market will likely price in higher chances for a June rate cut already. The FOMC Minutes isn’t generally such a great market-moving release because the market already knows what to expect and it becomes stale by the time it’s out as more data gets released in the meantime. I would have expected it to be market-moving this time around because the Fed could have refrained from mentioning the QT tapering at the last meeting but include it in the Minutes. Since they already communicated the tapering at the last decision, I can’t see the Minutes being a such a big deal.ThursdayThe Eurozone Negotiated Q1 Wage Growth is what the ECB has been waiting for months to give it more confidence on the inflation outlook. The data is unlikely to change their plan to deliver the first rate cut in June since they telegraphed it so hard in the meantime that it would be a real bad look to backtrack at this point. Nonetheless, it might shape the market’s expectations for the number of rate cuts for the rest of the year. Thursday will also be the Flash PMIs Day for many advanced economies with the greatest focus as usual on the Eurozone, UK and especially the US PMIs:Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 46.6 expected vs. 45.7 prior.Eurozone Services PMI 53.5 expected vs. 53.3 prior.UK Manufacturing PMI 49.2 expected vs. 49.1 prior.UK Services PMI 54.8 expected vs. 55.0 prior.US Manufacturing PMI no consensus vs. 50.0 prior. US Services PMI 51.5 expected vs. 51.3 prior.The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. This is because disinflation to the Fed's target is more likely with a weakening labour market. A resilient labour market though could make the achievement of the target more difficult.Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around the 1800K level. This week Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs. 222K prior, while there is no consensus at the time of writing for Continuing Claims although the prior release showed an increase to 1794K vs. 1785K expected and 1781K prior.Friday The Japanese Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.2% vs. 2.6% prior, while there’s no consensus for the Headline and the Core-Core figures at the time of writing. This report generally isn’t market-moving because we get to see the Tokyo CPI weeks in advance, which is a leading indicator for the National CPI figures. Anyway, surprises could have an impact on the market, but it looks increasingly likely that the BoJ won’t be able to hike rates further in this cycle. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Join us in Johannesburg, South Africa this week

May 18, 2024 | 05:18 am

I was lucky enough to head to the Finance Magnates Africa Summit last year and I'll be headed there again this week. It's a great event that brings together the industry and retail traders in Johannesburg. I will be speaking there and meeting with many friends and traders. If you're in the area, please come by. Sign up for the free event here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls assert dominance, closes its best week of 2024

May 17, 2024 | 15:06 pm

In Friday's session, the NZD/USD rose to the 0.6137 level, demonstrating a strong bullish trend.

Gold prices rally and refreshes monthly highs above $2,400

May 17, 2024 | 15:01 pm

Gold's price skyrocketed during the North American session ahead of the weekend as XAU/USD traded above $2,400, posting gains of more than 1.5% amid higher US Treasury bond yields.

US Dollar closes the week soft, markets digest cautious Fed

May 17, 2024 | 14:58 pm

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 104.50, maintaining a neutral stance.

Canadian Dollar treads water on tepid Friday

May 17, 2024 | 14:35 pm

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading softly on a low-volatility Friday, sticking close to the midrange.

Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 40,000 in quiet Friday climb

May 17, 2024 | 14:32 pm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is on the high side as markets wind down a hectic trading week that saw rate cut hopes return to the forefront after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to a three-month low.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 17 May.The price of the DXY index closes below its 100W MA

May 17, 2024 | 14:27 pm

US stocks rally into the close but close mixed. Dow closing above 40K for the 1st time.Silver extends rally to 6% -- an image to define the precious metals rallyCrude oil for July settled at $79.58Bank of America: The soft-landing scenario is unfoldingAre we in a human-intelligence bubble?Don't give up on the US dollar yet - TDMajor earnings releases for the week starting May 20 highlighted by Nvidia.ECBs Vasle: Awaiting data and open to possibilities on rate pathFed Gov. Bowman monitoring data to assess if policy is sufficiently restrictiveCanada April Teranet-National Bank house price index +5.65% y/yEuropean equity close: Subtle selling to close out the weekThe USD is moving lower. How has the technicals helped in that decline?No comments from the Fed's Waller on monetary policyUS Leading Economic Index (LEI) M/M -0.6% vs. -0.3% expected6% of global nickel output at risk as turmoil hits New CaledoniaKickstart the FX trading day for May 17 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSDThe USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session beginsForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar continues to hold alongside yieldsThe GBP is ending the US session as the strongest of the major currencies today. The CHF is the weakest. The USD is ending the day mixed with gains versus the JPY and CHF and losses vs the GBP, AUD and NZD. The USD was near unchanged on the day vs the EUR and CAD (-0.05%).For the trading week, the trade weighted dollar index (DXY) fell -0.77% with the index moving to the lowest level since April 1 week. That index is also closing below its 100-week MA at 104.83, after 5 weeks of closes above that MA. That shifts the technical bias for the index to the downside (staying below is more bearish for the USD). Looking at the main currencies vs the USD, the % changes of the USD vs each major currency this week shows mostly lower USD moves. The exception is the USDs gain of 0.30% gain vs the CAD.EUR, -0.93%JPY, -0.08%GBP, -1.43%CHF +0.30%CAD, -0.43%AUD, -1.40%NZD, -1.92%The move lower in the USD this week got the fundamental shove from the tamer CPI, flat retail sales (lower than expected), and lower NY manufacturing index all released on Wednesday. A PPI number that was stronger but offsel by sharp revisions in the prior month opened the door for the downside when it was released on Tuesday.Not congruent with the fundamentals is that Fed officials remain focused on higher for longer, whereas other countries are more likely to ease conditions earlier (especially the EU). That may ultimately slow the greenback's declines at some point. Nevertheless, the EURUSD closed above its 100-day moving average (USD bearish) at 1.0819 for the first time since March 21 after the gains on Wednesday. The GBPUSD also closed above its 100-day moving average for its first time since April 9 on Wednesday (and stayed above). The NZD and AUD are also moving away from its 100-day MA (dollar bearish). If the USD is to move back higher, the dollar needs to reverse back above the 100 day MAs on each of those currency pairs. Looking at the US stocks today, the major indices closed mixed with the Dow industrial average leading the way. That index closed above a key milestone today above 40K, and also closed at a new record level. On Wednesday both the NASDAQ and S&P closed at new record levels and although higher on the week, are closing the day below those record closes (marginally). Today:Dow industrial average rose 134.21 points or 40.34% at 40003.60.S&P index rose 6.17 points or 0.12% at 5303.26. It closed at a record 5308.14 on WednesdayNASDAQ index fell -12.35 points or -0.07% at 16685.97. It closed at a record 16742.39 on WednesdayThe Dow industrial average closed higher for the fifth consecutive week. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices closed higher for the fourth consecutive week.US yields are closing the day the highs but are still down on the week after the run lower on the back of the CPI/retail sales on Wednesday. The yield did rebound on Thursday and Friday, however.For today,2-year yield 4.86%, +3.6 basis points5-year yield 4.446%, +4.8 basis points10 year yield 4.421%, +4.5 basis points30-year yield 4.561%, +4.3 basis pointsFor the trading week,2-year yield fell -4.3 basis points for the week, but was down -16.6 basis points at the week's low5-year yield fell -6.8 basis points for the week, but was down -20.0 basis points at the week's low10 year yield fell -7.8 basis points for the week, but was down -18.7 basis points at week's low.30-year yield felt -8.0 basis points for the week, but with down -17.3 basis point at week's low.Thank you for your support this week. Hoping you and yours have a happy and healthy weekend. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Mexican Peso extends rally for three weeks amid soft US Dollar

May 17, 2024 | 13:46 pm

The Mexican Peso continues to record gains versus the US Dollar, refreshing its four-week high as the rally continued.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Extends gains but remains below 156.00

May 17, 2024 | 13:44 pm

The USD/JPY extended its gains late on Friday’s North American session, though it’s set to finish the week unchanged.

WTI pushes into fresh weekly high late Friday as Crude oil recovers ground

May 17, 2024 | 13:31 pm

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose in late-day bidding on Friday as Crude Oil markets recover, but still remains within recent consolidation levels.

US stocks rally into the close but close mixed. Dow closing above 40K for the 1st time.

May 17, 2024 | 13:23 pm

The major US stock indices pushed higher into the close and it seems the Dow closed not only at a record level, but also closed above 40K for the first time. The Dow is the least favored of the major indices, but it is the one that gets America excited. Headlines of Dow 40K means more on "Main Street" than "S&P 5K" or "Nasdaq17K". The Nasdaq and the S&P closed higher for the 4th week. Each of those indices also traded to new high closing levels this week with the S&P high close now at 5303.14. The Nasdaq new high close comes in at 16742.39.A snapshot of the closing levels is showing:Dow industrial average rose or 0.34% at 40003.60S&P index rose 6.17 points or 0.12% at 5303.26NASDAQ index fell -12.35 points or -0.07% at 16685.97The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -0.53 points or -0.03% at 2095.71.For the trading week, the major indices all closed up over 1%Dow rose 1.24%S&P index rose 1.54%NASDAQ index rose 2.11%Russell 2000 rose 1.744%For 2024, the broader NASDAQ and S&P index are battling it out for the strongest of the major indices (they are nearly up the same):Dow Industrial Average is up 6.14%S&P index is up 11.18%NASDAQ index is up 11.16%Russell 2000 is up 3.3%Next week, the focus for the stock markets (and other markets) will be on Nvidia earnings which will be released after the close on Wednesday. Shares of Nvidia moved down by $-18.80 or -1.99% to $924.79 in trading today, but is up over 86.74% this year and just 1.9% from its all-time high close.Although the price is up dramatically this yearEPS are expected to come in at $5.58 which is up from $1.09 during the same quarter in 2023. That is a gain of 411% YoY.Revenues for Nvidia are expected at $24.556B vs $7.19B in the same quarter in 2023. That is an increase of 241%.The stock price a year ago was at $305. With the current price at $933, that represents a rise of 205%. So all things equal, the gain in the stock- even at over 200% is supported by the gains in EPS and Revenues. Shares of AMD this week moved up close to 8.25% this week, and is closing up 1.13% in trading today. The not-so-good news is the price is down -27.65% from its February high. For the year, AMD shares are up only 11.57% in 2024 (but they are doing better than Intel who's shares are down -36.66% in 2024. Micron shares are up 46.81% in 2024. Broadcom shares are up 25.0% this year. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/THB plunges and approaches the 100-day SMA, USD cushioned by Fed officials

May 17, 2024 | 12:52 pm

The USD/THB continued to lose ground on Friday despite the cautious tone seen in the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' words.

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £-21.8K to £-20.1K

May 17, 2024 | 12:31 pm

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £-21.8K to £-20.1K

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions rose from previous €4.6K to €17.2K

May 17, 2024 | 12:31 pm

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions rose from previous €4.6K to €17.2K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions climbed from previous ¥-134.9K to ¥-126.2K

May 17, 2024 | 12:31 pm

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions climbed from previous ¥-134.9K to ¥-126.2K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions fell from previous 215.4K to 203K

May 17, 2024 | 12:31 pm

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions fell from previous 215.4K to 203K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $204.5K vs $199.6K

May 17, 2024 | 12:31 pm

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $204.5K vs $199.6K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions down to $-25.3K from previous $-9.7K

May 17, 2024 | 12:31 pm

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions down to $-25.3K from previous $-9.7K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-64.5K to $-77.2K

May 17, 2024 | 12:31 pm

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-64.5K to $-77.2K

Silver extends rally to 6% -- an image to define the precious metals rally

May 17, 2024 | 11:53 am

The silver bulls are a special kind but this weekend they will be celebrating. Silver has broken out today, in a technical waterfall.It started with the break of $30/oz and the February high, which is just above. That's led to a rush of buying and short covering in a 6% rip to $31.37. That's the highest since 2013.Now there isn't much standing in the way, technically. The mid-2012 high was $35.40 and that's a reasonable target given the momentum and enthusiasm for precious metals in general. Gold today is slated to close above $2400 for the first time (and also on a weekly basis). It's also just a few dollars away from an all-time intraday record.For the gold bulls, I think the image of Putin and Xi hugging is as good as it gets. It underscores their determination to define a multi-polar world that's not dominated by the US -- or the US dollar. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil for July settled at $79.58

May 17, 2024 | 11:42 am

Crude oil futures redo winds that align our sewing at $79.58. At the $0.84 on the day. The selling price is near the high for the day. The low for the day was at $78.61. For the trading week, the price is up 1.87%.Technically, the price is trading between the 100-day moving average below at $78.57 (blue line), and the 200 day moving average (green line) above currently at $79.96.This week, sellers had their shot with the tries below the 100-day moving average. On Wednesday, a new low going back to February 26 took the price to the low for the week at $76.72. but the price snapped back higher by the close. Inventory data this week showed a surprise drawdown on Wednesday helping to bottom the price.The price currently between the MAs is more neutral technically, but with the sellers having their shots this week, the buyers have the control nod heading into the close and the new week. It would now take another move below the 100 day MA to wrestle the control back from the buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of America: The soft-landing scenario is unfolding

May 17, 2024 | 11:39 am

Here's a note from Bank of America yesterday: Softer than expected April payrolls (175K) and April CPI (core: dropped to 3.6% YOY, 0.3% MOM) pulled forward first Fed rate cut from November to September. The 10y UST yield has dropped from a peak of 4.7% on 4/25/24 to 4.35% today.. The Citi economic surprise index has rolled over meaningfully in recent weeks, as economic data has shown clear signs of softening. At -21.6, the economic surprise index is close to the most negative reading since January 2023. We think the softening data is the long-awaited response to tight monetary policy of the past few years and do not think it is an anomaly. The soft-landing scenario is unfolding. A large divergence between the Citi surprise index and 10y UST yield has emerged, suggesting downside potential on the 10y UST yield. Based both on this divergence and on technical analysis, we think a decline from 4.35% to the 3.25% area in the next 6-12 months is a good possibility - and likely non-consensus. We note that the baseline BofA rate forecast is for a 4.25% 10y UST yield at the end of both 2024 and 2025, suggesting a more modest duration overweight.A scenario like this would unwind some of the recent strength in the US dollar, particularly against the yen and Swiss franc. But how far that can run will depend on the severity of the slowdown. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Rising yields put some pressure on equities

May 17, 2024 | 11:25 am

The energy market might be the tail that's wagging the dog today.WTI crude is up 1% and flirting with $80 while July natural gas is near $2.75 as US production falls. Oil was as low as $76.70 on Wednesday but has quickly turned around on signs that OPEC+ will extend its production agreement (the meeting was moved to virtual, which probably means it's a rubber stamp).As oil prices have climbed today, so have yields. At first equities shrugged that off -- perhaps due to options expiration today -- but with yields now up 3 to 4.5 bps across the curve, stocks are taking notice. The S&P 500 is down 13 points to 5284 from a high of 5305. To be sure, those are small moves but a sign of some skepticism after a run to records.I also wonder if there isn't some reflexivity. Fed funds futures pricing is down to 45 bps this year from 51 bps at the start of the week and that might reflect the strengthening wealth effect from stock markets.There is also some skepticism about growth. Tony Pasquariello, Global Head of Hedge Fund Coverage at Goldman Sachs wrote this:".. a handful of the biggest money managers I know have recently made strong arguments for ongoing durability in the US economy. if there’s a common thread across them, it’s the momentum behind spending on AI, infrastructure, onshoring and defense. I agree with the broad thesis and will register that GS is calling for Q2 GDP growth of 3.2%, while the Atlanta Fed is predicting 3.6% .. it stands in contrast to the ongoing pessimism I see in the press and hear on the street (specifically regarding the consumer, which I don’t agree with)."Like it has been for awhile: One economic data point at a time. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/NOK with light losses on quiet Friday, cautious Fed supports the USD

May 17, 2024 | 11:05 am

The USD/NOK stands mildly down on Friday with the Greenback holding its ground thanks to the cautious tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

Are we in a human-intelligence bubble?

May 17, 2024 | 11:03 am

You could make a strong argument that the chief preoccupation with humanity over the past 200 years has been improving overall education.It's worked. Despite all the morons you run into on the internet, the data is inarguable. IQ test score increases have been continuous and approximately linear from the earliest years of testing to the present. Maybe that's halting leaded gasoline and improving early-childhood education but IQ levels have steadily increased.What if that's all about to end?There was a wonderful demo this week from OpenAI on its GPT-4o model. One of the things it highlighted was how it could help tutor a student on math problems.On the face of it, this should further improve education but I fear that's not what will happen. Picture thousands of kids with AI models effectively staring over their shoulders, badgering them along with problems like this. The risk is that student say: What's the point? The AI has every answer so why do I need to learn it?Already, there is a plague of Chat-GPT cheating in high schools and universities. The risk is that student say: What's the point? If AI has every answer what would motivate kids to learn? Moreover, as parents and teachers see knowledge commoditized, will they stop caring. Already, there is a plague of Chat-GPT cheating in high schools and universities. Ultimately, societies gravitate towards things that are useful and if we have super-intelligence in our pocket, people will start to ask: What's the point?Now I would expect something like this to play out of many decades, so there's no real takeaways for markets. But it's an illustration that things we assume about the future -- even the most-basic things -- aren't always right. Even the past 20 years is notable. We assumed the internet would make everyone better-informed but instead it's put people into echo chambers and more-susceptible to propaganda.Unintended consequences are a funny thing. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 497 vs 496

May 17, 2024 | 10:43 am

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 497 vs 496

Don't give up on the US dollar yet - TD

May 17, 2024 | 10:30 am

TD Securities outlines its strategic perspective on the USD's trajectory, recommending fading the recent rallies of EUR, GBP, CAD, and CHF against the USD due to a divergence in inflation and growth expectations between the US and G10 countries.Key Points:Short-Term Outlook: In the immediate weeks ahead, short-term factors such as positioning and historical fair value (HFFV) indicate potential USD downside.Medium-Term Bullishness on USD: Over the next 3-6 months, TD foresees strengthening USD as inflation divergence between the US and G10 becomes more pronounced, despite global growth starting to show signs of convergence.Growth and Inflation Dynamics: While global growth revisions are showing convergence, inflation in the US remains distinctively higher compared to G10, suggesting less likelihood of a synchronized monetary policy easing.Currency Strategy: TD advises strategically positioning for a stronger USD by fading the recent appreciations in EUR, GBP, CAD, and CHF, which they view as temporary and misaligned with broader economic indicators.Conclusion:TD's analysis supports a bullish outlook for the USD in the medium term based on sustained inflation differentials and recommends capitalizing on recent counter-trend moves in other major currencies.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major earnings releases for the week starting May 20 highlighted by Nvidia.

May 17, 2024 | 10:17 am

It isn't over for the earnings calendar next week as arguably, the most important earnings announcement scheduled for Wednesday, May 22 when Nvidia announces its earnings after the close. A summary of the major releases:Monday, May 20ZoomPalo Alto NetworksTrip.comTuesday May 21LowesToll BrothersUrban OutfittersAutozoneMacy'sWednesday, May 22TargetAnalog DevicesSnowflakeNvidiaTJXThursday, May 23Ralph LaurenIntuitBJsRossWorkdayBy far, Nvidia will be the market mover. Nvidia shares are up 88% in 2024. That sounds like a lot, but EPS are expected to come in at $5.58 which is up from $1.09 during the same quarter in 2023. That is a gain of 411%. Revenues for Nvidia are expected at $24.556B vs $7.19B in 2023. That is an increase of 241%. The stock price a year ago was at $305. With the current price at $933, that represents a rise of 205%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes oil rigs -1 at 497 in the current week

May 17, 2024 | 10:09 am

Oil rigs: -1 at 497Nat. Gas rigs unchanged at 103Total rigs: +1 at 604 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed officials recognize overall inflation progress, but cautious tones remain

May 17, 2024 | 09:57 am

Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to deliver speeches on Thursday as investors reassess the interest rate outlook following the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Reddit stock advances as much as 17% after data partnership with OpenAI

May 17, 2024 | 09:50 am

Reddit (RDDT) stock is experiencing its second-best ever session gains on Friday after OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, announced a partnership with the social media platform.

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.5%) in April

May 17, 2024 | 09:00 am

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.5%) in April

Canada April Teranet-National Bank house price index +5.65% y/y

May 17, 2024 | 08:53 am

Prices up 5.65% y/yPrices still 3.71% below the May 2022 peakPrices up 0.01% m/m seasonally adjustedPrices +1.9% m/m non-seasonally adjustedThere was a burst of activity in April in the Canadian housing market but it seems to have cooled right down and there are still signs of strain in new builds and condos. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD rallies toward 1.2700, bulls’ target YTD high

May 17, 2024 | 08:48 am

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Forecasting the Coming Week: Fedspeak and FOMC Minutes should rule the sentiment

May 17, 2024 | 08:40 am

The Greenback lost further ground and dropped to multi-week lows on the back of rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed, a view that was further reinforced by lower US CPI data in April The Greenback remained on the back foot and dragged the USD Index (DXY) to the 104.00 zone amidst an equally downward move in US yields.

European equity close: Subtle selling to close out the week

May 17, 2024 | 08:39 am

On the day:Stoxx 600 -0.1%German DAX -0.1%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%French CAC -0.2%Italy MIB flatSpain IBEX +0.2%On the week:Stoxx 600 +0.5%German DAX -0.3%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%French CAC -0.6%Italy MIB +2.1%Spain IBEX +2.0%European stocks have been on a really nice run but they mostly took a break this week. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Rallies toward 1.2700, bulls’ target YTD high

May 17, 2024 | 08:08 am

The British Pound registers gains of 0.21% against the US Dollar, although higher US Treasury yields failed to underpin the Greenback.

EUR/USD bounces back even though Fed officials maintain hawkish gudaince on interest rates

May 17, 2024 | 07:54 am

EUR/USD recovers from 1.0830 in Friday’s American session as market sentiment over upcoming interest-rate cuts improves despite Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers supporting keeping the monetary policy stance restrictive for a longer period.

Fed's Waller does not comment on policy or economic outlook

May 17, 2024 | 07:49 am

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller delivered a prepared speech at the International Organization for Standardization Technical Committee 68 Financial Services 44th Plenary Meeting on Friday but refrained from commenting on the monetary policy or the economic outlook.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD posts fresh multi-year high at $30.50 on firm Fed rate-cut prospects

May 17, 2024 | 07:43 am

Silver price (XAG/USD) refreshes multi-year high at $30.50 in Friday’s New York session.

Gold continues rallying on strong China data

May 17, 2024 | 07:23 am

Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading three-tenths of a percent higher on Friday, in the $2,380s, helped by positive data from China that brightened the prospects for the country with the world’s largest market for Gold.

Mexican Peso resumes uptrend after pause

May 17, 2024 | 07:20 am

The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades broadly unchanged in its key pairs on Friday, with USD/MXN flatlining as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes after its recent sell-off and market sentiment remains relatively calm heading into the weekend.

WTI trades sideways around $79.00 with eyes on PBoC policy decision

May 17, 2024 | 07:11 am

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, are stuck in a tight range slightly below $79.00 in Friday’s New York session.

US Leading Economic Index (LEI) M/M -0.6% vs. -0.3% expected

May 17, 2024 | 07:10 am

US LEI -0.6% vs. -0.3% expected and -0.3% prior.Comment:“Another decline in the U.S. LEI confirms that softer economic conditions lay ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Deterioration in consumers’ outlook on business conditions, weaker new orders, a negative yield spread, and a drop in new building permits fueled April’s decline. In addition, stock prices contributed negatively for the first time since October of last year. While the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead. " "Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household debt, and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue weighing on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we project that real GDP growth will slow to under 1 percent over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.”Notably, the LEI 6-month growth rate annualised did not signal a recession for the second consecutive month. Per Conference Board's note on this indicator: "The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds rule which is a reliable rule of thumb to interpret the duration, depth, and diffusion – the 3Ds – of a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long-lasting a decline in the index is, and depth denotes how large the decline is. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the last six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is (i.e., the diffusion index of the LEI ranges from 0 to 100 and numbers below 50 indicate most of the components are weakening)." "The 3Ds rule provides signals of impending recessions 1) when the diffusion index falls below the threshold of 50 (denoted by the black dotted line in the chart), and simultaneously 2) when the decline in the index over the most recent six months falls below the threshold of -4.4 percent. The red dotted line is drawn at the threshold value (measured by the median, -4.4 percent) on the months when both criteria are met simultaneously. Thus, the red dots signal a recession." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

6% of global nickel output at risk as turmoil hits New Caledonia

May 17, 2024 | 07:04 am

There is certainly some drama in the base metals market at the moment. Copper hit records on a supply squeeze and now nickel prices are surging, in part due to violent protests in New Caledonia.The French Pacific territory saw a wave of riots after a roposed amendment to the French Constitution that would change local voting rules in the territory.A state of emergency was declared for 12 days after 4 people died in the riots on the island of 270,000.The territory has held three independence referendums -- all defeated -- but it remains a thorny subject that was inflamed after a proposed constitutional change to expand French citizens' eligibility to vote in provincial elections.In the bigger picture, the island is a critical global producer of nickel and European officials fear it could quickly be co-opted by China if independent.Prices of nickel have been improving from the February trough and rose 5% today to a year-to-date high. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major indices little changed. On pace for gains for the week.

May 17, 2024 | 06:36 am

The major US indices are little changed to start the trading day (and the final day of the week). A snapshot of the market currently shows:Dow industrial average is trading up 32 points or 0.08% at 39899.96S&P index of 1.48 points or 0.03% at 5298.94NASDAQ is up 0.16 points or 0.0% at 16700The small-cap Russell 2000 index of 3.33 points or 0.16% at 2099.58For the trading week:Dow Industrial Average average up 0.93%S&P index up 1.44%NASDAQ index up 2.20%In the US debt market, yields are higher:2-year yield 4.799%, +0.8 basis points5-year yield 4.418%, +1.9 basis points10 year yield 4.402%, +2.5 basis points30-year yield 4.547%, +2.9 basis pointsLooking at other markets:Crude oil is trading down -$0.34 at $78.89.Gold is back above 2400 at $2402.36, up $25.54.Bitcoin is trading at $66,161. High-priced reached $66,568. Low price was at $65,129. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US equities set for a flat start

May 17, 2024 | 06:28 am

Markets don't have much to mull today due to a blank economic calendar but it's options expiration today so there could be fireworks. Futures are dead flat but I don't expect that to last long as the US dollar sags in a sign of risk appetite. On the flipside, Treasury yields are 2 bps higher across the curve and that could weigh on equities. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is thinking about $2400 again (update: it breaks)

May 17, 2024 | 06:04 am

Gold is at the highs of the day, despite a steady inch-up in Treasury yields. Yesterday, gold topped out at $2397 before running into selling pressure at the big figure and fading to finish at $2376. It's recovered to $2395 with eyes on yesterday's high and the $2400 level. Gold has never closed above $2400, though the intraday record high was $2431 on April 12.The question for gold bulls is whether the buying fever in Asia and the Middle East has faded and whether the US can add another leg to it if/when the Fed signals rate cuts. Given the inevitability of that at some point, support for gold should remain, though maybe we see some profit-taking first. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It's a light economic calendar to close out the week

May 17, 2024 | 05:25 am

The US economic calendar is essentially bare today, aside from leading indicators -- which is never a market mover. That should send US traders away early, and even moreso for Canada which also has Monday off. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar continues to hold alongside yields

May 17, 2024 | 04:57 am

Headlines:Dollar begins to claw back CPI drop10-year Treasury yields stick to the bounce after running into key technical junctureECB's de Guindos sees inflation moving towards 2% goal in 2025Eurozone April final CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimFrance Q1 ILO unemployment rate 7.5% vs 7.4% expectedJapan inflation likely to have eased further in April - pollPBOC to lower interest rates on housing fund loans by 25 bpsNorth Korea fired multiple short-range missiles towards sea, says South Korean militaryMarkets:USD leads, AUD lags on the dayEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%US 10-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.394%Gold up 0.5% to $2,389.83WTI crude down 0.1% to $78.72Bitcoin up 1.6% to $66,331In FX, the reaction to the US CPI earlier in the week is being clawed back somewhat. The dollar is finding a footing in the last few sessions, helped by a bounce in Treasury yields as well.10-year yields are now at 4.39%, moving off its 200-day moving average. The low after the inflation data was 4.31%, so that is helping to also prop up USD/JPY. The pair is now up over 200 pips since the drop on Wednesday and early Thursday morning.Meanwhile, EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0843 with large option expiries at 1.0850 still holding price action. The 100-hour moving average at 1.0835 is also a key near-term level to watch in the final stretch of the week.Elsewhere, USD/CAD is up 0.1% to 1.3635 and AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.6655 as commodity currencies also lag slightly in any post-CPI follow through.In the equities space, European stocks are getting checked back while US futures are more tentative for the most part. The memes are pausing for now as Gamestop shares are down in pre-market following softer revenue sales in Q1. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fed minutes the big one to watch on the economic calendar next week

May 17, 2024 | 02:45 am

And on days when we don't get any big data, it can be a little slow and uninspiring. So far today, at least we're seeing the dollar make a decent push higher. That is helped by Treasury yields keeping a bounce at a key technical juncture as noted here. But traders are going to continue to be driven by key economic releases in the months ahead. So, let's see what is on the agenda for next week.Canada April CPI report (21/05)**RBNZ May monetary policy decision (22/05)**UK April CPI report (22/05)**US April existing home sales (22/05)FOMC May meeting minutes (22/05)***France, Germany, Eurozone May preliminary PMIs (23/05)**UK May preliminary PMIs (23/05)**US May preliminary PMIs (23/05)**US weekly initial jobless claims (23/05)**US April new homes sales (23/05)UK April retail sales data (24/05)Canada March retail sales data (24/05)US April durable goods orders (24/05)The key one to watch will be the Fed minutes, to get a better check in on their thoughts about future policy steps. That especially after having cited a lack of progress on inflation in the meeting statement here. Since then, we have seen some better developments in the data. So, it will be interesting to try and pick up some clues from there.Meanwhile, PMI data will be in focus to gauge any further softening in the US economy. In Europe and the UK, it will be a check to see if the better performance in Q1 will continue into Q2.That aside, do keep an eye out on the UK inflation data as well. It will be one to help settle the score on the debate about a rate cut before the summer. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurozone April final CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim

May 17, 2024 | 02:00 am

Prior +2.4%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelimPrior +2.9%No changes to the initial estimate as this just confirms the ECB is on track for a June rate cut. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

10-year Treasury yields stick to the bounce after running into key technical juncture

May 17, 2024 | 01:48 am

The bounce in yields is what is arguably leading the rest of the broader market moves in the last few sessions. 10-year yields are holding at the key technical juncture, maintaining a bounce off its 200-day moving average (green line). In turn, that is helping the dollar to find a bit of a footing as it claws back the losses from Wednesday.USD/JPY especially has recovered quite strongly by over 200 pips in the last two days to near 156.00 now.It's definitely a check back for risk assets as well. European indices are now down around 0.4% to 0.6% on the day while S&P 500 futures are also down 0.1%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Dollar begins to claw back CPI drop

May 17, 2024 | 01:42 am

It comes as bond yields are also nudging higher with 10-year yields now to 4.39% on the day. In turn, USD/JPY is moving back up to 155.95 and EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0840. While the former has already erased its CPI drop, the latter is starting to get there alongside other dollar pairs as well.For today, EUR/USD has some large option expiries at 1.0850 that could hold price action a bit more before rolling off. But from a technical perspective, the 100-hour moving average (red line) at 1.0833 is now a point of interest.Elsewhere, GBP/USD is also down 0.2% to 1.2645 and AUD/USD down 0.4% to 0.6650 on the day. The latter is also seeing a similar retreat to EUR/USD with its own 100-hour moving average at 0.6645 currently.As yields rebound, we're also seeing traders pare back Fed rate cut odds slightly. After the CPI data, the total rate cuts priced in for the year was around 51 bps. Currently, we're seeing that fall back to roughly 46 bps on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Aussie dollar tests break above US$0.67 despite broad USD recovery

May 16, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar held onto gains above US$0.6650 through trade on Thursday, testing a break above US$0.67. The AUD continued Wednesday's post CPI push through the early part of the local session, breaking above US$0.67 to mark intraday highs at US$0.6712, before domestic labour market data showed a surprise uptick in the unemployment rate through April. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, two tenths higher than markets anticipated. After Wednesday’s weaker than anticipated Wage Price Index report there are clear signs the labour market is softening. Australian rates fell and the AUD tracked toward session lows just above US$0.6655 before finding support. The AUD opens this morning buying US$0.6680 and our attentions turn now to China activity data, retail sales and April housing data, while Eurozone CPI data and commentary from key Fed and Bank of England officials dominate the offshore ticket and direction into the weekly close. Key Movers US Treasury yields rallied through trade on Thursday, retracing losses endured in the wake of Wednesday’s softer than anticipated CPI print, allowing the USD DXY index to creep higher on the day. Fed officials Williams, Barker and Mester all hit the wires, reiterating the Fed’s commitment to controlling inflation, doubling down on the mantra rates will be “higher-for-longer”. Against the backdrop, the Japanese yen underperformed and was the weakest of majors, giving up near 1% and allowing the USD to push back above 155. Japan GDP data contracted more than anticipated through Q1 on the heels of weak private consumption, complicating the outlook for monetary policy and highlighting the cap in central bank programs. Having given up all post CPI gains, markets again called into question the Bank of Japan’s resolve in tightening policy and intervening to protect the yen. Our attentions today turn to China data, Eurozone CPI numbers and commentary from central bank officials for direction into the weekly close. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6620 - 0.6720 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6080 - 0.6180 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.8800 - 1.9100 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0880 - 1.1020 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9050 - 0.9150 ▼

US Inflation Drops to 3.4% in April

May 16, 2024 | 03:41 am

US inflation resumes downward trend.

Forex Today: US Inflation Slightly Lower, Risk-On Rally

May 15, 2024 | 23:18 pm

US CPI Monthly Increase Only 0.3%; NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 Rally To Record Highs; Silver, Copper to Multi-Year Highs

AUD surges as US inflation pressures ease

May 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar surged overnight, falling just short of US$0.67 amid a broad-based USD sell-off. Markets largely ignored domestic wage data after the Wage Price Index printed marginally below expectations and in line with RBA estimates. Wage pressures appear to have past their peak allowing markets to price out the prospect of further RBA rate hikes. The print had little impact on AUD value as markets sidelined major bets ahead of key US inflation data. The US CPI report for April printed in line with expectations, a relief for markets and Fed officials after a string of upside surprises. The AUD, having traded sideways leading into the data release, lurched upward, climbing through US$0.6650 to mark intraday highs at US$0.6694. Our attention turns now to domestic employment data, with jobs growth and unemployment numbers headlining the docket, while Japan's GDP data and US jobless claims dominate the offshore ticket. We are keenly watching resistance at US$0.67 for any sign of an extended AUD breakout. Key Movers The US dollar fell sharply through trade on Wednesday following the April CPI report. After a string of positive data surprises through January, February and March, April's print was as expected, bringing relief for analysts and Fed officials and allowing investors to temper expectations for another Fed rate hike and firm up bets for a September rate cut. Markets have now priced a 99% probability of a September rate adjustment, up from 81% leading into the print, while 2 cuts are now forecast before year-end. US yields were lower across the curve with both 2 and 10-year rates falling. The USD DXY index gave up 0.7% as the euro lurched back toward 1.09 the GBP climbed toward 1.27 and the yen pushed the US dollar back below 155. Our attention turns now to US jobless claims, Japanese GDP data and the ECB’s Financial Stability Review. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6580 - 0.6720 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6100 - 0.6200 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.8800 - 1.9100 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1000 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9030 - 0.9130 ▲

Forex Today: Markets Expect US CPI to Fall to 3.4%

May 14, 2024 | 23:41 pm

Markets Await Crucial US Inflation Data; Global Stock Index Hits Record High; Fed Chair Powell Says Lower Inflation Needed Before Cuts; Copper Futures Hit 2-Year High

AUD steady in face of stronger US inflation input data

May 14, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar maintained a narrow trading band through Tuesday, bouncing between US$0.6580 and US$0.6630. Having tracked sideways through the domestic session the AUD crept upward leading into the Federal budget address pushing off US$0.66 to mark highs at US$0.6610, maintaining gains through the early part of the overnight session before stronger than expected US PPI data sent the AUD lower. Headline PPI rose 0.5% versus market expectations of just a 0.2% increase, elevating expectations the Fed will be forced to delay planned interest rate cuts. The AUD fell to an intraday low at US$0.6580 before finding support as markets unwound the knee-jerk response and forced the USD lower on the day. Having pushed toward intraday highs just short of US$0.6630 and opened this morning buying US$0.6627. Our attention now turns to local Q1 wage data and the release of the Wage Price Index. We expect wages to have grown 4.2% year on year. A print above consensus may amplify calls for the RBA to hike rates again. Offshore US CPI data for April will prove pivotal in shaping near-term direction. After yesterday's hot PPI report policy officials will be looking for signs inflation pressures are easing. A stubbornly high inflation read could see rate cut expectations pushed well into Q4 and possibly roll into 2025. Key Movers The US dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Tuesday closing lower on the day against most majors. Having tracked sideways early the dollar jumped higher following stronger than anticipated US PPI data for April. Core PPI showed a 0.5% increase, well ahead of market estimates for a 0.2% advance. With key PPI components feeding into the core PCE deflator, the stronger print has elevated fears of an upside risk for inflation and tonight’s CPI print. The dollar rallied following the data release before retracing gains after Fed Chair Jerome Powell affirmed his view that “interest rates are high enough” and “we need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work”. Powell’s comments doused expectations the Fed may raise rates again and force markets to unwind USD gains. The USD is lower this morning against the euro and GBP. UK Labour market data saw wages rise 6% on a quarterly year-on-year comparison, printing above market expectations yet countered by softening jobs growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate. Market pricing for a Bank of England rate cut was largely unchanged. The yen is weaker again this morning as markets continue to test the resolve of the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance. Our attention now turns to tonight’s all-important US CPI print. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6520 - 0.6680 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6150 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.8800 - 1.9100 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0920 - 1.1020 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9000 - 0.9100 ▲

AUD range-bound ahead of all-important US inflation update

May 13, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar With little headline newsflow or data on hand to drive direction, it has been a relatively quiet start to the week. Investors appear content in simply waiting for tomorrow’s all-important US inflation update. The AUD showed little reaction to reports from China that new stimulus measures will be introduced, targeting investment in infrastructure. Copper and iron ore prices surged, yet the AUD tracked sideways, bouncing between US$0.6590 and US$0.6630. With the USD and other majors little changed, our attention turns to the 2024-25 budget update. Our key focus will be the budget's outlook for inflation as a possible guide to future changes in RBA projections. Offshore our focus shifts to US PPI numbers ahead of tomorrow's all-important CPI print. The pace of disinflation has slowed through 2024 and this week’s read could prove pivotal in shaping expectations for Fed easing leading into the second half of the year. Key Movers There has been little price action across major currencies to start the week as investors seem to continue to wait on data that shapes central bank policy expectations. The Japanese yen has been the only notable mover down against the USD and other major counterparts. The USD has recovered off lows below 152, trading back above 156 on Monday. Investors appear convinced FX intervention is only temporary and seem willing to test the resolve of the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance, as underlying fundamentals continue to promote a weaker yen. We are closely monitoring moves toward 160 for any sign of intervention. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6550 - 0.6650 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6080 - 0.6180 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.8900 - 1.9100 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1050 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8980 - 0.9080 ▲

Forex Today: US Stock Markets Advance on Earnings Optimism

May 12, 2024 | 23:32 pm

Major US Stock Indices Looking Bullish; Precious Metals Decline

Aussie dollar trades back below US$0.66

May 12, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6591 at the time of writing. The Greenback held its ground on Friday but seems stuck as markets await drivers to continue placing their bets on the next Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions. The US economy remains on shaky ground, and markets are expecting signs of decelerating inflation, which gives the Fed confidence to start cutting. In the meantime, the bank’s officials remain hawkish. Last week the RBA left its cash rate on hold at 4.35% for a fourth consecutive meeting on Tuesday in a result that was widely expected. Only one economist, Capital Economics, predicted the central bank would lift the cash rate. The RBA statement left its key words basically unchanged, while the bank remained “vigilant to upside risks” to inflation. Prior to last month’s release of higher than expected inflation figures for the March quarter, most economists and investors had been forecasting the RBA to cut rates from as soon as September. Looking ahead to this week and today we will see the release of the NAB Business Confidence. On Tuesday the Australian Treasury will release the Annual Budget. This document outlines the government's budget for the year, including expected spending and income levels, borrowing levels, financial objectives, and planned investments. Finally, on Thursday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest monthly Unemployment Rate Decision which is expected to see the jobless rate increase from 3.8% to 3.9%. Key Movers Last week in the United States the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level in more than eight months, offering more evidence that the labor market was steadily cooling. The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday, the most timely data on the economy's health, followed news last week that the economy added the fewest jobs in six months in April, while job openings dropped to a three-year low in March. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended May 4, the highest level since the end of last August. The increase was the largest in nearly four months. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week. Claims broke above the 194,000-225,000 range, which had prevailed since the start of the year. Looking ahead this week and on Tuesday we will see the release of the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI). On Tuesday we will see the release of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and monthly Retail Sales Figures. Finally, on Thursday we have Unemployment Claims and housing data. On Friday China's consumer prices rose for a third straight month in April, while producer prices extended declines, signalling an improvement in domestic demand, as Beijing navigates challenges in its bid to shore up a shaky economy. The closely watched numbers follow better-than-expected import data for April, suggesting a flurry of policy support measures over the past several months may be helping consumer confidence. Consumer prices edged up 0.3% in April from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Saturday, versus a rise of 0.1% in March and a Reuters poll forecast for an increase of 0.2%. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, grew 0.7% in April, up from 0.6% in March. Overall the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% from the previous month, beating a forecast fall of 0.1% in the poll and reversing a drop of 1% in March. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6500 - 0.6700 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.8850 - 1.9050 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0850 - 1.1050 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8950 - 0.9150 ▼

Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 5.25%

May 9, 2024 | 09:06 am

The Bank of England (BOE) left interest rates on hold at today’s meeting.

Forex Today: Markets Await Bank of England

May 9, 2024 | 00:18 am

The Bank of England will be holding a policy meeting today, at which the voting on rates and monetary policy statement will be closely watched.

Forex Today: Hawkish Kashkari Boosts Greenback

May 7, 2024 | 23:37 pm

US Dollar Rises on Kashkari Comments on Rates; Global Stocks Lower; BoJ’s Ueda More Aggressive in Rate Comment

Forex Today: RBA Holds Rates, Warns on Recession

May 6, 2024 | 22:44 pm

RBA Maintains Cash Rate at 4.35%, Says Cuts Highly Uncertain; Global Stocks Bullish; BoJ Refuses Comment on Intervention

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Sells Off Again

May 5, 2024 | 23:15 pm

Yen Falls as New Week Opens; Precious Metals Edge Higher; Markets Await Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting Tomorrow

United States Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged

May 2, 2024 | 03:30 am

US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, cites inflation as still too high; US dollar declined while the stock market surged but then retreated.

Forex Today: Powell Downplays Rate Hike Chances

May 1, 2024 | 23:25 pm

US Dollar Drops, Stocks Rise After Powell Says a Hike Unlikely; Suspected BoJ Intervention Sends Yen Higher, But Sellers Rebound.

Forex Today: Stocks Bearish as Markets Await Fed Meeting

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:22 pm

Equity Markets See Quite Strong Losses Over Past Day; Japanese Yen Trade Remains Lively; US Dollar Advances to Near 6-Month High

Forex Today: Markets Weigh Suspected BoJ Yen Intervention

Apr 29, 2024 | 23:45 pm

Japanese Yen Makes Huge Swings After 34-Year Lows; Bank of Japan Refuses to Comment; US Dollar Consolidates; Copper Futures Rise to 2-Year High.

Forex Today: Stocks Tumble – Sell in May and Go Away?

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:27 am

Stocks Make Deepest Pullback in Months; Precious Metals Remain Strong; Dollar Weakens After G7 Statement; Several Trends May Be Reversing

Bitcoin Halving: Will it Trigger a Market Frenzy?

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:41 am

Bitcoin is all over the news, as “Bitcoin halving” is expected to occur on Friday, April 19. What is Bitcoin halving and how will it affect the price of Bitcoin?

Forex Today: US Yields Rise on Powell Cut Delay Signal

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:00 am

Fed Chair Powell Says Inflation Falling Too Slowly; Israel Hints at Soft Retaliation, Crude Oil Weaker; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.79; UK CPI Higher Than Expected; Bitcoin Close to Halving

Forex Today: Stock Markets See Strong Selling

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:10 pm

Global Stock Markets Firmly Lower; Israel Signals Retaliation Likely Soon; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.44; Energies, Precious Metals Firm; Markets Await Canadian CPI Data

Forex Today: Risk Sentiment Improves as Mideast Tension Lowers

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:51 am

Immediate Retaliation Against Iran Unlikely; USD/JPY Breaks Out to New 34-Year High Near ¥154; Market Await US Retail Sales Data

Forex Today: US Monthly CPI Unchanged, Triggers Hawkish Shift on Rate Cuts

Apr 10, 2024 | 23:28 pm

US CPI data released yesterday showed the annualized rate rising higher than expected to 3.5%.

US Inflation Higher Than Expected, Accelerates to 3.5%

Apr 10, 2024 | 09:37 am

US inflation for March rose 3.5% year-on-year. This was higher than expected and the US dollar is higher following the inflation release.

Forex Today: US CPI Expected to Show Slower Monthly Increase

Apr 9, 2024 | 23:43 pm

US CPI data will be released today, with the market expecting a slower pace of monthly increase.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,354

Apr 7, 2024 | 23:24 pm

Metals Rise Strongly to New Highs; USD/JPY Likely to Retest 34-Year High at ¥152; Crude Oil, Gasoline Futures Pull Back From Highs

Forex Today: Gold Beats $2,300

Apr 4, 2024 | 00:08 am

Spot Gold has continued to rise to new all-time high prices.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,288

Apr 2, 2024 | 22:27 pm

Precious Metals Rise Firmly to New Highs; Fed’s Daly Expects 3 Rate Cuts in 2024; USD/JPY Remains Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

German Inflation Eases to 3-Year Low

Apr 2, 2024 | 07:54 am

Germany’s CPI climbed 2.2% year-on-year in March, down from 2.7% in February and matching expectations. This is the lowest inflation rate since May 2021.

Forex Today: Yen Nears Record Low, Markets Await Possible BoJ Intervention

Apr 1, 2024 | 23:20 pm

USD/JPY Advances Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; US Dollar Stronger on Firm US Manufacturing Data; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

Forex Today: Gold Hits $2265 Per Ounce

Mar 31, 2024 | 23:13 pm

Gold Reaches Record High in Asian Session; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Strong Chinese Manufacturing Data; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

United States GDP Expanded in Fourth Quarter by 3.4%

Mar 28, 2024 | 07:44 am

US GDP rises 3.4%, Canada GDP rebounds; US dollar steady, while stock markets show little movement following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed’s Waller: No Rush to Cut Rates, Prospect of Hikes Remote

Mar 28, 2024 | 01:25 am

US Fed’s Waller Reiterates Ongoing Fed Message of Slow Path to Rate Cuts; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Cocoa Futures Make Another Record High Close; Gold Also Makes Record High Closing Price

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Hits 34-Year Low

Mar 27, 2024 | 00:13 am

USD/JPY Hits Record High Near ¥152, Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Cocoa Futures Surpass $10,000 to Hit All-Time High; Aussie CPI Unchanged

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