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Citigroup now sees 100 basis points of cuts this year from July

Apr 26, 2024 | 07:30 am

Citigroup now sees 100 basis points of cuts this year from July. That is much more than the 45 or so basis points forecast by the market. The Fed's last dot plot had 3 cuts, but subsequently, Fed officials came more in the 1 to 2 cut range. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Gold price drops as hot US core PCE Inflation dent Fed rate cut prospects

Apr 26, 2024 | 07:02 am

Gold price (XAU/USD) falls from $2,350 in Friday’s early New York session as the United States annual core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March has remained above estimates.

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 77.2 below forecasts (77.8) in April

Apr 26, 2024 | 07:00 am

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 77.2 below forecasts (77.8) in April

University of Michigan April consumer sentiment (final) 77.2 versus 77.9 estimate

Apr 26, 2024 | 07:00 am

Preliminary 77.9Prior 79.4Consumer sentiment 77.2 versus 77.9 estimateCurrent conditions 79.0 versus 79.3 preliminary. Prior month 82.5Expectations 76.0 versus 77.0 preliminary. Prior month 77.41-year inflation expectation 3.2% versus 3.1% preliminary. Last month 2.9%. This is the highest level of the year5-year inflation expectation 3.0% versus 3.0% preliminary. Last month 2.8%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains sideways near $27.60 as investors reassess Fed rate cut bets

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:53 am

Silver price (XAG/USD) remains stuck in a tight range around $27.60 in Friday’s American session.

AUD/USD continues rising after US core PCE beats estimates with fifth up-day in a row

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:42 am

AUD/USD trades in the 0.6540s as it continues rallying after the release of US core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index data for March.

US stocks trading higher at the U.S. Open

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:36 am

Microsoft and Alphabet are leading stocks higher in early US trading. The NASDAQ index is the biggest gainer. The Dow Industrial Average is trading near unchanged.A snapshot of the markets shows:Dow Industrial Average average up 35 points or 0.10% at 38124.65S&P index of 31.66 points or 0.64% at 5080.NASDAQ index up 205 points or 1.31% at 15816.The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 4.08 points or 0.21% at 1965.28.Big gainers include:Google up 10.02%Microsoft up 2.76%Amazon up 1.79%Super Micro Computers up 2.34% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Natural Gas steady with summer season facing ample amount of demand

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:30 am

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) prices are holding ground above $2.00 on Friday after a brief dip earlier this week. Gas prices are quickly recovering as mainland Europe is gearing up for the next heating season, with traders starting to negotiate contracts in

WH Brainard: Work to bring costs down are ongoing

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:30 am

Former Fed Gov. Lael Brainard is speaking on the inflation and says:Work to bring costs down our ongoingWorking to lower healthcare, drug, housing costs. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks in premarket trading are higher led by the NASDAQ index

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:27 am

The major US stock indices are trading higher in premarket trading, but off the highest levels.Dow Industrial Average averages is virtually unchanged with a small gain of 12 pointsS&P index is implying gain of 33 points or 0.66%NASDAQ futures are implying a gain of 146 points or 0.83%For the trading week, the major indices are going into today's trade with gains. The S&P is looking to snap a three week decline while the NASDAQ index is looking to snap a four week decline:Dow Industrial Average is up 0.26%S&P index is up 1.63%NASDAQ index is up 2.16%Shares of Microsoft after their earnings are trading at $14.36 or 3.6%. Alphabet shares are up $18 or 11.47%. They too announced earnings after the close yesterday. Intel shares are sharply lower after disappointing earnings (down -9.26%).Nvidia shares are up $13.21 or 1.60%. Amazon shares are up $4.48 or 2.58%. Meta Platforms shares are down $-1.78 or -0.40%. Yesterday Meta Platforms shares fell $52.12 or -10.56% after announcing higher expenses and lower expectations for Q2 revenues. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pound Sterling could face strong resistance at 1.2560

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:26 am

GBP/USD closed the third consecutive day in positive territory on Thursday and climbed to its highest level in two weeks at 1.2540 early Friday.

Breaking: US Core PCE inflation holds steady at 2.8% vs. 2.6% expected

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:14 am

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, will be published on Friday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at 12:30 GMT.

Pound sterling exhibits strength ahead of US core PCE Inflation

Apr 26, 2024 | 06:12 am

The Pound Sterling (GBP) clings to gains near 1.2500 against US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s early American session.

Japanese Yen continues falling despite possible intervention attempt

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:56 am

The Japanese Yen (JPY) languishes near a multi-decade low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday as traders keenly await the outcome of the highly-anticipated Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting.

EUR/USD continues slogging higher despite PCE data beat

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:48 am

EUR/USD trades in the 1.0740s on Friday, ahead of key data out of the US in the form of the March core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation.

Weekly Market Recap (22-26 April)

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:39 am

MondayThe PBoC left the LPR rates unchanged as expected:1-year LPR 3.45%.5-year LPR 3.95%.The SNB raised the minimum Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) from 2.5% to 4.0% with the change going into effect from 1 July 2024:"Liabilities arising from cancellable customer deposits (excluding tied pension provision) will in future be included in full in the calculation of the minimum reserve requirement, as is the case with the other relevant liabilities. This revokes the previous exception whereby only 20% of these liabilities counted towards the calculation."That is a change to the National Bank Ordinance. On the move, the SNB says that "the adjustments will ensure that implementation of monetary policy remains effective and efficient" and that it "will not affect the current monetary policy stance".The Canadian March PPI came in line with expectations:PPI M/M 0.8% vs. 0.8% expected and 1.1 prior (revised from 0.7%).PPI Y/Y -0.5% vs. -1.4% prior (revised from -1.7%).Raw materials price index Y/Y -0.5% vs. -4.7% prior.Raw materials price index M/M 4.7% vs. 2.1% prior.TuesdayThe Australian April PMIs showed Manufacturing almost jumping back into expansion while the Services PMI ticked slightly lower:Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 47.3 prior.Services PMI 54.2 vs. 54.4 prior. The Japanese April PMIs showed Manufacturing PMI almost jumping back into expansion while the Services PMI increased further into expansion:Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 48.0 expected and 48.2 prior.Services PMI 54.6 vs. 54.1 prior.BoJ Governor Ueda didn’t add anything new on the monetary policy front as the central bank remains data dependent with particular focus on the inflation trend and wage growth:Don't have any preset idea on timing, pace of future rate hike.If trend inflation accelerates in line with our forecast, we will adjust degree of monetary support through interest rate hike.If our price forecast changes, that will also be a reason to change policy.Future monetary policy guidance will depend on economy, price, market development at the time.Didn't say anything new on BoJ policy last week in Washington.Trend inflation is still somewhat below 2%, so need to maintain accommodative monetary conditions for the time being.If geopolitical risks, weak domestic demand cause disruptions in markets, BoJ will respond through flexible, nimble liquidity provisions.Annual wage negotiations have been, and always will be, among important economic variables we look at in setting policy.We decide on policy looking not just at wage talks, but various other economic variables.We decided to change policy in March because strong wage talk outcome came on top of fairly solid readings in other sectors of economy.Whether we will set policy with same emphasis on wage talk outcome will depend on conditions at the time.It’s hard to say beforehand how long the BoJ should wait in gathering enough data to change policy.We would like to leave some scope for adjustment by not pre-committing to a certain policy too much.Our basic stance is that we will look at moves in trend inflation to achieve our price goal, and take a data-dependent approach in setting policy.The Eurozone April PMIs showed Manufacturing PMI slipping further into contraction while the Services PMI continues to tick higher:Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs. 46.6 expected and 46.1 prior.Services PMI 52.9 vs. 51.8 expected and 51.5 prior.The UK April PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling back into contraction while the Services PMI continue to expand:Manufacturing PMI 48.7 vs. 50.4 expected and 50.3 prior.Services PMI 54.9 vs. 53.0 expected and 53.1 prior.BoE’s Haskel (hawk – voter) warned that inflation is unlikely to reach sustainably the target unless there’s a weakening in the labour market:High inflation to remain unless labour market weakens.UK labour market is extremely tight.Labour market tightness has been easing rather slowly.BoE’s Pill (neutral – voter) didn’t add anything new on the monetary policy front although he did say that a rate cut is “still some way off”:Seeing signs of a downward shift in inflation persistency.Policy outlook has not changed substantially since March.There has been little news in recent months on inflation persistence.Now seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of inflation dynamic.A cut in the bank rate would not entirely undo the restrictive policy stance.Will need to maintain a degree of restrictiveness in policy stance to squeeze out inflation persistency.Absence of news and passage of time have brought a bank rate cut somewhat closer.The timing for a rate cut is still some way off.No reason for BoE to move rates in lockstep with either Fed or ECB.The US April PMIs missed expectations across the board:Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 52.0 expected and 51.9 prior.Services PMI 50.9 vs. 52.0 expected and 51.7 prior.Highlights:April saw an overall reduction in new orders for the first time in six months.Companies responded by scaling back employment for the first time in almost four years.Business confidence fell to the lowest since last November.Rates of inflation generally eased at the start of the second quarter, with both input costs and output prices rising less quickly at the composite level.However, manufacturing input cost inflation hit a one-year high.Some service providers suggested that elevated interest rates and high prices had restricted demand during the month.WednesdayThe Australian Q1 CPI beat expectations across the board:CPI Y/Y 3.6 vs. 3.4% expected and 4.1% prior.CPI Q/Q 1.0% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.6% prior.Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y 4.0% vs. 3.8% expected and 4.2% prior.Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q 1.0% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.8% prior.Weighted Mean CPI Y/Y 4.4% vs. 4.1% expected and 4.4% prior.Weighted Mean CPI Q/Q 1.1% vs. 0.9% expected and 0.9% prior.ECB’s Nagel (hawk – voter) warned that a rate cut in June does not mean that more rate cuts will follow suit:June rate cut not necessarily followed up by a series of rate cuts.Services inflation remains high, driven by continued strong wage growth.Not fully convinced that inflation will actually return to target in a timely, sustained manner.Given the uncertainty, we cannot pre-commit to a particular rate path.The German April IFO Business Climate Index beat expectations:IFO 89.4 vs. 88.8 expected and 87.9 prior (revised from 87.8). Current conditions 88.9 vs. 88.7 expected and 88.1 prior.Expectations 89.9 vs. 88.7 expected and 87.7 prior (revised from 87.5).The Canadian February[…]

United States Personal Spending came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.6%) in March

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:31 am

United States Personal Spending came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.6%) in March

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.6%) in March: Actual (2.7%)

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:31 am

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.6%) in March: Actual (2.7%)

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in March

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:31 am

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in March

US March PCE core inflation 2.8% YoY versus 2.7% expected

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:30 am

Prior 2.8% (unrevised to 2.8%)PCE Core YoY 2.8% vs 2.7% estimatePCE Core MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% estimate. Prior MoM +0.3% unrevised to 0.3%Headline PCE 2.7% vs 2.6% estimateHeadline MoM PCE 0.3% vs 0.3% expectedFor the full report CLICK HEREConsumer spending and consumer income for March:Personal income 0.5% vs 0.5% estimate. Prior month 0.3%.Personal consumption 0.8% vs 0.6% estimate. Prior month 0.8%Real personal spending 0.5% vs 0.5% last month (revised from 0.4%).The core PCE rise was 0.32% out to 2 decimal places. So on the topside of 0.3%. This is better than was feared. Yesterday, the whispers were for a 0.4% and perhaps closer to 0.5%. It looks like the higher PCE from yesterday''s GDP PCE was in January. January can be wonky due to end of year/beginning of year volatility. Having said that, the progress on inflation is stalled (see chart above). The Fed target is still down at 2.0% with some thinking if they got to 2.5% it would give them some ammunition to take out some of the restrictive monetary conditions. The rate cut expectations is only marginally higher in September vs the 58% chance prior to the report.US stocks moved higher initially (NASDAQ is up around 180 points), but have come off a bit. US yields are a few basis points lower:2-year yield 4.974%, -2.5 basis points5-year yield 4.681%, -3.5 basis points10 year yield 4.658%, -4.7 basis points30-year yield 4.768%, -5.2 basis pointsThat compares to start of the US session levels:2-year yield 4.999%5-year yield 4.708%10-year yield 4.685%30-year yield 4.791% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

United States Personal Income (MoM) in line with expectations (0.5%) in March

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:30 am

United States Personal Income (MoM) in line with expectations (0.5%) in March

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in March

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:30 am

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in March

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.6%) in March: Actual (2.8%)

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:30 am

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.6%) in March: Actual (2.8%)

US Dollar at session's high ahead of PCE

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:18 am

The US Dollar (USD) is trading stronger in the run up to the last bit of economic data for this week, after it was all over the place on Thursday after the release of the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter. The USD first

Mexico Trade Balance, $ came in at $2.098B, above forecasts ($0.7B) in March

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:01 am

Mexico Trade Balance, $ came in at $2.098B, above forecasts ($0.7B) in March

Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.21%, below expectations (0.29%) in April

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:00 am

Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.21%, below expectations (0.29%) in April

Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.3% below forecasts (2.4%) in March

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:00 am

Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.3% below forecasts (2.4%) in March

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ increased to $-1.583B in March from previous $-1.61B

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:00 am

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ increased to $-1.583B in March from previous $-1.61B

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a rose from previous 2.6% to 2.7% in March

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:00 am

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a rose from previous 2.6% to 2.7% in March

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Japanese yen volatility ramps up after Ueda presser

Apr 26, 2024 | 04:58 am

Headlines:USD/JPY returns to the highs for the day after flash in the pan dropUSD/JPY hits the skids in fall to 155.00USD/JPY ramps higher as Ueda loses controlBOJ governor Ueda says chance of a prolonged weakness in the yen is not zeroBOJ governor Ueda says will adjust degree of monetary easing if underlying inflation risesBOJ governor Ueda says will continue to watch impact of FX on economy, pricesSNB's Jordan says central bank has been successful in fighting inflationFrance April consumer confidence 90 vs 92 expectedEurozone March M3 money supply +0.9% vs +0.6% y/y expectedICYMI: Trump advisers consider penalties for nations shifting away from the US dollarMarkets:AUD leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.8%US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.692%Gold up 0.5% to $2,344.29WTI crude up 0.4% to $84.09Bitcoin down 0.5% to $64,185It was all about the Japanese yen during the session as the volatility swings pick up after the BOJ policy decision earlier today.BOJ governor Ueda had his press conference but he did little to touch on the weaker yen and that was enough for traders to ramp USD/JPY higher. The pair moved up from 155.95 to 156.60 before a sudden surge higher in the yen brought the pair down to 155.00 right at the European open.The timing of the move is largely suspect as it would be off-form for Tokyo to have intervened. The size of the move might have alluded to that at first but then the dip was quickly bought up. USD/JPY moved back up to 155.50-70 almost immediately, before regaining its composure to move to 156.80 now at the highs for the day.Things are definitely heating up before the weekend with watchful eyes on any potential intervention from Tokyo, especially with it being a Japanese holiday on Monday. But I wouldn't rule out a move then either if there isn't anything today.In other markets, stocks are staying underpinned after earnings beat from Alphabet and Microsoft. US futures are holding on to early gains for the most part while European indices are also posting modest gains so far on the day.Coming up next, we have the US PCE price data to go through. That will offer traders more to work with after the Q1 GDP data yesterday. I shared some food for thought on that earlier here.Have a great rest of the Friday and a wonderful weekend, everyone. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Consolidates around 1.3650 ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation gauge

Apr 26, 2024 | 04:21 am

The USD/CAD pair is stuck in a tight range near 1.3650 in Friday’s European session.

USD/JPY returns to the highs for the day after flash in the pan drop

Apr 26, 2024 | 03:56 am

If anything else, it shows that:1) The drop earlier wasn't likely any intervention check or otherwise from Tokyo. I mean, the timing of the move was already suspect as mentioned at the time. And that is arguably the giveaway now after the fact. It is definitely easier to digest and make sense of the move two hours later of course. So, what could it have been?2) The pair is definitely in a rather abnormal state at the moment. Plenty of traders are staying sidelined in fears of being hammered down by Tokyo. As such, perhaps larger flows would lead to exacerbated price movements - at least more so than usual. That could've been it, alongside stops being triggered in such quick fashion.3) The dip buying shows the underlying appetite in the market right now. It's tough to fight the momentum especially with the BOJ conviction also lacking as of late. I mean, recent inflation data hasn't been shaping up the way that they're hoping it to be. And that is throwing a wrench in the works on any further rate hikes this year. That is not to mention that Japanese yen pairs are also underpinned by higher bond yields in recent weeks. Adding to that is the lack of technical resistance on the way up for USD/JPY currently.In any case, we're back to where we were a few hours ago now. Buyers might not get too carried away for now as we await the US PCE price data coming up. But barring any surprises, we could see price action start to pick up again after that. The 157.00 mark will be an interesting level to watch, as with any big round figures from hereon.And as mentioned earlier here, it will be interesting to see if Tokyo has the appetite to act at the last minute today. Mind you, it is a Japanese holiday on Monday. But still, I wouldn't rule out any action in the early morning then if there isn't anything before the weekend later. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Equities hold the optimism, counting down to US data later

Apr 26, 2024 | 03:16 am

The Japanese yen might have stolen the focus during the session but it's time to forget about that for a while. The US PCE price data is coming up later and that will be an important release to watch. It is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation after all. And following the reaction to the US Q1 advance GDP data yesterday, it is clear that market players are still playing close attention to inflation data at the moment.For now, equities are keeping the optimism after the late rebound in Wall Street yesterday. Tech shares are of course leading the charge, after earnings beat from Alphabet and Microsoft. S&P 500 futures are up 0.7% while Nasdaq futures are up 1.0%. Dow futures are only up 0.2% currently. In Europe, major indices are also higher with the DAX up 0.7% and CAC 40 up 0.3% on the day.Stocks have enjoyed a bit more of a steadier showing this week. However, it doesn't take away from the rather poor performance overall in April. Sellers are not out of the picture yet and we'll have to see if the data later offers them something to work with at the end of the week. The 100-day moving average (red line) for the S&P 500 is still not too far away for now: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Mexican Peso declines in key pairs on inflation outlook

Apr 26, 2024 | 03:07 am

The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades lower in most pairs on Friday as signs of entrenched inflation in most developed economies push back expectations for interest-rate cuts with bullish implications for their currencies.

Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:27 am

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

India Gold price today: Gold gains, according to MCX data

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:10 am

Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data from India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

GBP/JPY extends winning spell to 196.00 after BoJ keeps interest rates unchanged

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:05 am

The GBP/JPY pair extends its winning streak for the fourth trading session on Friday and rises to a historic high of 196.00.

Australian Dollar holds position near a major level, US PCE awaited

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:00 am

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its upward trend for the fifth consecutive session on Friday.

WTI edges lower to near $83.50 amid a weaker demand outlook following US GDP

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:55 am

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price trades near $83.40 per barrel, showing a slight decrease of 0.10% during the European hours on Friday.

Japanese yen surge being very quickly faded

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:13 am

The volatility swing is in full action for the Japanese yen right now. USD/JPY saw a very quick drop from around 156.60 to 155.00 before being just as quickly bought back up now to 156.10-20 levels.It's not immediately clear if this was a first check by Japanese officials. But the size of the drop definitely does invite such a possibility. However, the timing is definitely a little suspect as it comes during a rather active time in markets - also before the US PCE price data later.If anything, officials tend to look for the most effective and cost-efficient time when intervening. And this is not exactly that.Either way, the dip is being bought quite strongly and it certainly hints at caution on the kind of risk one might face if you're in any yen trade currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY hits the skids in fall to 155.00

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:03 am

A first taste of intervention play by Tokyo perhaps? The pair is being quickly bought up though as the volatility swing sees it back up to the 155.70-90 range at the moment. The size of the move definitely invites the idea of Japanese officials stepping in but with the quick dip buying, the effectiveness is certainly questionable given the timing and present liquidity conditions. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurozone March M3 money supply +0.9% vs +0.6% y/y expected

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:00 am

Prior +0.4% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

AUD/USD hopes to keep technical break higher ahead of US PCE price data later

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:49 am

It's a case of data mismatch for the aussie and the greenback this week. The former saw stickier inflation numbers here while the latter saw softer PMI numbers here. That was enough to close the gap on the divergent outlook between the RBA and Fed. In turn, it helped AUD/USD to keep a solid bounce on the week. So, what is the chart saying now?The pair initially saw its upside limited by the 200-day moving average (blue line) earlier this week. But today, that key level has been broken and buyers are even pushing price above the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing lower this month - seen at 0.6536. Keep above both those levels and the upside momentum will have legs to run further.The next key technical resistance will only come in at the 100-day moving average (red line) at 0.6584 currently.For trading though, just be wary that we still do have one big hurdle to go through. The US PCE price index is coming up later today. But the balance of risks might just favour a continuation of a softer dollar in this case. We'll see. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY ramps higher as Ueda loses control

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:12 am

BOJ governor Ueda is still speaking but he's not saying anything about the currency and recent developments. He's preaching to the choir in saying that the inflation trend is still intact and they could still raise rates again at some point. But that's not what yen traders are really focusing on at the moment.On the currency itself, he said he won't make any comment on FX levels. But when he did touch on the yen situation, he said this.So, what's next for USD/JPY as the pair is seeing a gain of roughly 100 pips today?It's all about if Tokyo sees this as being a move that is going too far, too fast. The line in the sand has definitely shifted now. And you have to wonder, if we do see price take out another figure level in 157, are they going to at least step in once before the 160 mark? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

European indices open higher as stocks look for more optimistic end to the week

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:09 am

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.7%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6%The better sentiment is carried by tech shares though, with S&P 500 futures up 0.8% and Nasdaq futures up 1.1% on the day. That follows from better earnings by Alphabet and Microsoft. The late rebound in Wall Street to pare some of the losses yesterday is also helping with the mood somewhat. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY not waiting around for Ueda to finish up, jumps higher

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:00 am

There was some profit-taking in the run up to Ueda's press conference. But as soon as he started speaking, the focus has been more on what he didn't say as opposed to anything else. And when he did touch on the Japanese yen, he didn't do the currency any favours by saying that there is a chance that it could see a sustained period of weakness.It's not a full on green light for USD/JPY bulls but as mentioned earlier, it need not be for the pair to ramp higher on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

If our forecasts materialise, achievement of 2% inflation target is extremely close - Ueda

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:56 pm

Forecasts, schmorecasts. It's tough to even make a call six months from now, let alone talking about projections in a year or two. Besides, their own latest inflation data isn't encouraging whatsoever as seen here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

France April consumer confidence 90 vs 92 expected

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:45 pm

Prior 91French household confidence remains sluggish in April, falling back and continuing to keep below its long-term average of 100. There is more pessimism with regards to the future standard of living, with unemployment prospects also easing slightly on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Heads up: BOJ governor Ueda press conference coming up soon

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:15 pm

He definitely has a tough balancing act to do today. The BOJ policy decision didn't offer much and given recent inflation data, it's hard to see an overly hawkish reach from Ueda. But the absence of that could be taken to mean they're comfortable with allowing the yen to fall further.Ueda is due to begin his press conference at the bottom of the hour. And usually, it will last for about an hour or so. USD/JPY is up 0.2% to 155.97 on the day but down from around 156.20 earlier. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A light one on the data docket in Europe today

Apr 25, 2024 | 22:20 pm

After some back and forth action yesterday, the dollar is holding steadier so far on the day at least. USD/JPY is in focus after the BOJ policy decision earlier, as the pair cautiously extends higher above 156.00. Ueda's press conference is up next and that will be one to watch, to see if he will take the punchbowl away from the party.Elsewhere, US futures are rocking higher after earnings beat from Alphabet and Microsoft. That is helping investors put behind the disappointment from Meta in the day before that. S&P 500 futures are up 0.8% with Nasdaq futures up 1.2% currently.In Europe, there won't be much on the calendar to really shake things up. So, the focus will stay on the above developments mostly. All that before we get to the US PCE price data later in the day. It is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation and I shared some thoughts on the possible market reaction here.0645 GMT - France April consumer confidence0800 GMT - Eurozone March M3 money supplyThat's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI: Trump advisers consider penalties for nations shifting away from the US dollar

Apr 25, 2024 | 22:08 pm

There's never a dull moment when Trump is in the headlines, eh? The latest is that his economic advisers are discussing ways to actively stop countries from shifting away from using the US dollar. This is said to be an effort to counter the actions by key emerging markets to reduce their US dollar exposure.The discussion includes penalties for those who are seeking out alternative engagements in bilateral trade in currencies other than the US dollar. Those penalties could range from export controls, currency manipulation charges and tariffs.In March, this was what Trump commented to CNBC on the dollar:"With Biden, you’re going to lose the dollar as the standard. That’ll be like losing the biggest war we’ve ever lost. I hate when countries go off the dollar. I would not allow countries to go off the dollar because when we lose that standard, that will be like losing a revolutionary war. That will be a hit to our country."Well, he's not president yet but it'll be good to keep this in mind when we get to the election in November. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

How is the balance of risks shaping up ahead of the US PCE price data later today?

Apr 25, 2024 | 21:59 pm

The reaction to the US Q1 GDP data yesterday was an interesting one. But perhaps it offers a hint of what to expect from the reaction when we get to the US PCE price data today. Let's try and make sense of that and see how markets might reaction to the Fed's preferred measure of inflation later.In looking at the impact of economic data now, it is important to identify what exactly they are influencing. And that here is the Fed outlook.As things stand, traders have priced out any chance of a rate cut in May, June, and July. The odds of a September rate cut are at ~76% currently. But that particular FOMC meeting is still roughly five months out. That is plenty of time for markets to take stock of the US economy and to assess the Fed outlook. And I'd like to stress on the word plenty in that sentence.If inflation remains as it is, offering a few hints of stickiness, it still fits with the above narrative for the most part. I mean, traders are pricing in roughly 35 bps worth of rate cuts for the year and that sounds about right now. To rule out rate cuts completely would be rather premature in my view.So, there's some leeway in letting the inflation numbers to slide through over the next one or two months at least.However, if we do see the disinflation narrative pick up, that could start to invite some questions on a move in July perhaps. A summer move is unlikely but it's best not to rule that out completely especially if the data starts to dictate as such. But we'll see.Taking all that in consideration, I'd argue that the balance of risks are favoured towards a more dovish Fed now. We're about as close as we can get to pricing in just one rate cut for the year and that's a major shake up since the start of 2024 already. Adding to that, the base case is one looking to five months out. And there's a lot of data to scrutinise between now and then.It'd be too early to call for no rate cuts this year in the next one or two months. So, if traders do get overly excited and overextend in that direction to any economic data, there's a good chance of the move being kept in check. And that is arguably what we already saw in trading yesterday.That'll be some food for thought ahead of the US PCE price data later today. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY cautiously higher after BOJ policy decision, traders await Ueda presser next

Apr 25, 2024 | 21:16 pm

It's a tough spot for Japan as the yen continues to slip in trading this week. The BOJ didn't offer much help as USD/JPY now runs up to the 156.00 level, its highest in over three decades. So, what's next for the pair?For now, buyers are cautiously taking price higher. And as long as that is not a move that is going too far, too fast, it might not trigger any intervention plays from Tokyo yet.The line in the sand is definitely shifting and that is something we'll have to acknowledge. The question now is, will 160 be that new threshold? Or is it going be any earlier?For today at least, I would argue that there are only two things left to watch.The first will be BOJ governor Ueda's press conference. Traders will be looking to that for clues on whether to keep pressing the agenda here in pushing the boundary in USD/JPY.I can't imagine Ueda giving a clear green light to traders to rocket USD/JPY higher. But he has a tough balancing act to do, especially since recent inflation data hasn't been too encouraging to support a much hawkish stance.Considering the circumstances, even a tentative yellow light would be enough for traders to keep bidding USD/JPY higher. And so, the challenge is for Ueda to manage that and not let price action get out of control.The other thing to watch out for today will be in the later hours of US trading. Typically when central banks intervene, they tend to do so at the most efficient and cost-effective time. And that usually means during periods of reduced liquidity. Given where we are at now, there might only be one window left for them to do so and that is right before the market closes for the weekend.As such, that could also invite some profit-taking later in the day. So, just be wary about that. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged

Apr 25, 2024 | 20:59 pm

Bank of Japan interest rate decision: Unchanged at 0%-0.10%. Removes key line on bond buysTokyo April CPI ex fresh food +1.6% y/y vs +2.2% expectedA one-off factor liked dropped Tokyo CPIAustralia Q1 PPI +4.3% y/y vs +4.1% priorTrump wants to put someone at the Fed who will work for him - reportJapanese fin min says he won't comment on forex and details of policy. Watching closelySuzuki: Forex levels reflecting US and Japan interest rate differentialUK GfK April consumer confidence -19 vs -20 expectedA Tesla senior VPs that quit last week files to sell all $181 million of his TSLA stockMarkets:USD/JPY rises 36 pips to fresh 34-year high at 156.00Gold up $2 to $2334WTI crude oil up 23-cents to $83.8010-year JGB yields up 2 bps to 0.917%NZD leads, JPY lagsS&P 500 futures up 0.8%The Bank of Japan kept us in suspense longer than usual but ultimately delivered a decision that was largely in-line with expectations. The market reacted by selling the yen because there was no hint at an upcoming hike, only vague talk of hiking rates at an unspecified time if the economy develops in line with forecasts. One notable emission from the statement was comments on keeping bond buys unchnaged. That comes after an earlier report saying the BOJ might shift on that front. We will look for more clarity from Ueda.Aside from yen trading, the dollar was slightly softer in keeping with the trend after the post-GDP jump earlier. That move has faded on every front.Equities are also in focus after a big after-hours jump in Alphabet shares and a decent one in MSFT as well. That boosted risk appetite and could weigh on the US dollar on a few fronts later, though PCE data will certainly play a part. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Aussie dollar continues to trade above US$0.65

Apr 25, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6518 at time of writing. AUD/USD rallied strongly on Wednesday following the release of stickier-than-expected Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Q1. Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in the March quarter as rents and education costs increased, dimming hopes the cost-of-living crunch was easing and lessening chances of a 2024 cut in official interest rates. The consumer price index for the first three months of 2024 was 3.6% higher than a year earlier, slowing from the 4.1% annual pace in the December quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists had tipped CPI growth would drop to 3.5%. The March quarterly inflation rate was 1%, compared with the 0.6% pace in the December quarter. Economists had tipped it would rise to 0.8%. Looking ahead today and the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest quarterly Import Price Index. We will also see the release of the quarterly Producer Price Index (PPI). Key Movers On the data front, in the United States overnight real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that is incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete source data, will be released on May 30, 2024. Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated. Other relevant data for the US dollar showed Initial Jobless Claims falling slightly to 207K from 212K, despite an expected rise to 214K, and Pending Home Sales coming in at 3.4% in March, easily beating estimates of 0.3% and February’s 1.6%. The Dow Jones declined 1.82% top-to-bottom on Thursday, hitting a seven-day low of 37,745.54 and turning negative for the week. Despite the major equity index reclaiming nearly half of the day’s declines, the DJIA remains well back from the day’s peaks at 38,446.43. Looking ahead and today we will see the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The Federal Reserve (Fed) remains firm on its stance and doesn't seem in a rush to start easing and market hawkish adjustments provide a cushion to the USD. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data from March will likely affect those investors’ expectations. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9050 - 1.9250 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.9000 ▼

Aussie dollar trades below US$0.65

Apr 23, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6480 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar continues its upward trajectory for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, buoyed by improved risk appetite. On the data front yesterday Australia's Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Composite rose to a 24-month high of 53.6 in April compared to the previous month's 53.3. The Australian private sector ticked up into an accelerated pace of growth in the second quarter bolstered primarily by Services sector growth. Australia's Manufacturing PMI Output rose to an eight-month high of 49.1 compared to March's 45.7, brushing off a 2-month low of 54.2 in the Services Business Activity compared to March's 54.4. Looking ahead today the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for the last quarter. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally, on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). There will be no commentary tomorrow due to the Anzac Day public holiday. Key Movers The pound bounced back from US$1.2300 in Tuesday’s early session as the S&P Global/CIPS posted stronger-than-expected United Kingdom preliminary Services PMI data for April. Surprisingly, the Services PMI jumped to 54.9 from the prior reading of 53.1. Investors forecasted the Services PMI to drop slightly to 53.0. The preliminary Manufacturing PMI, surprisingly contracted, remains below the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction after expanding in March. The factory PMI falls sharply to 48.3 from expectations and the prior reading of 50.3. Looking ahead to the rest of this week investors will shift focus to the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, which will be published on Friday. The monthly core PCE Price Index is estimated to grow steadily by 0.3%. Annually, the underlying inflation data is expected to soften to 2.6% from 2.8% in February. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading softly at 105.70 tallying daily losses on Tuesday's session. Investors will be keeping an eye on vital economic reports due this week, including the preliminary figures of Q1’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index from March to gain further insight into the economy's health. During Tuesday’s session, S&P PMIs came in lower than expected and made the USD face selling pressure. US Treasury bond yields are dwindling with the 2-year yield at 4.93%, the 5-year yield at 4.61%, and the 10-year yield at 4.58%. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9050 - 1.9250 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼

Aussie dollar trades back above US$0.64

Apr 22, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6446 at time of writing. The Aussie dollar yesterday fared better than most of its rival counterparts against the Greenback partly because commodities, which Australia is a major exporter of, are holding their value better than expected. The supportive effect may not last, however, since Iron Ore, which is Australia’s largest export, could be peaking and about to roll over. The Australian dollar may encounter challenges ahead, particularly as domestic inflation continues to moderate, aligning with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest forecasts. Furthermore, the persistently tight labour market could lead to calls for an RBA rate reduction before the year's end. On the data front, today we will see the release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for the last quarter. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). Key Movers US equities on Monday opened higher in the early going, but there have been frequent bouts of strength in the latest six-day losing streak that have ultimately been overwhelmed by sellers. In early trading, the index is up 20 points, or 0.45%, which is a tad softer than futures indicated. 10-year US Treasury yields jump to 4.64% as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers argue that the current restrictive monetary policy framework is appropriate given strong labor demand and stubbornly higher price pressures. On the data front, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.15 in March from +0.09 in February. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from February and two categories made positive contributions in March. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to CFNAI was -0.01 in March, down from +0.02 in February, the Chicago Fed said on Monday. Looking ahead for the rest of the week and Federal Reserve officials will begin its blackout period ahead of the May 1 meeting. However, April PMIs and housing data will be released by S&P Global. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6350 - 0.6550 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9050 - 1.9250 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼

Aussie dollar trades below US$0.64

Apr 21, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6411 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar fell on Friday below 0.6400 as riskier assets faced pressure due to heightened geopolitical risk across financial markets. Last week on the local front Australia's unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.8 per cent after 6600 jobs were lost in March, a stronger-than-expected result that will likely end any chance of a mid-year interest rate cut. The jobless rate, revealed today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is only a marginal increase on last month's surprisingly low figure of 3.7 per cent and slightly better than market forecasts of a larger rise to 3.9 per cent. A tight labour market means the Reserve Bank is unlikely to pull the trigger on an interest rate cut until towards the end of the year. Looking ahead to this week and today we will see the release of the Flash Manufacturing PMI. A survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. On Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for the last quarter. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally, on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). Key Movers The US dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 106.09, a mild loss from its recent peak of 106.35. Despite this, the index remains geared toward testing its November 1 high of 107.10. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was unchanged at a low level last week, pointing to continued labor market strength that is driving the economy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended April 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Labor market resilience, together with elevated inflation have led financial markets and some economists to expect that the Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates until September. A few economists doubt that the U.S. central bank will lower borrowing costs this year. The Pound Sterling tumbled against the US dollar during the mid-North American session on Friday after a volatile trading day due to geopolitical risks. The GBP/USD currently trades at 1.2367, down 0.49%. British Retail Sales showed signs of stagnation during the European session in March compared to February’s reading. Analysts were expecting sales to grow 0.3% MoM, which came at 0%, while core sales tumbled from 0.3% to -0.3%. On an annual basis, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that sales rose by 0.8%, which is up from a drop of -0.3% in February. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6300 - 0.6500 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9150 - 1.9350 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8700 - 0.8900 ▼

Aussie slides on prospect of US rate hike

Apr 18, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The AUD is lower this morning having given up a quarter percent amid higher US treasury yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Domestic employment data did little to move the AUD with unemployment rate edging higher, up to 3.8%, yet holding onto most of the decline seen in February when the rate fell from 4.1% to 3.7%. If we exclude January as a seasonal outlier the unemployment rate has tracked below 4% through the last two years, suggesting there is resilience within the labour force despite signs employment growth is stalling. This latest print does little to alter market expectations for RBA monetary policy and we are still looking toward a possible cut in Q4. Having tracked between US$0.6440 and US$0.6450, the AUD then fell through overnight trade amid the prospect of a potential US rate hike. Fed policy makers made clear that if inflation remained sticky and the data indicated a rate hike was needed to bring inflation back to target then that is what they would do. Having slipped below US$0.6420 the AUD tracked sideways into this morning’s open and currently trades at US$0.6419. With no domestic data on hand to drive direction we look to Japan CPI and UK retails sales as the only items of note on the macroeconomic calendar. US yields will continue to determine direction and we anticipate the AUD will remain on the back foot next week. Key Movers The US dollar is stronger this morning having reversed losses suffered through trade on Wednesday amid hawkish Fed commentary and a general risk-off tone. Yields pushed higher after NY Fed President and FOMC member Williams suggested another rate hike was not out of the question, stating “monetary policy is in a good place, I am in no hurry to cut interest rates and if the data are telling us that we need higher interest rates to bring inflation back to target then we obviously want to do that”. With USD again on the front foot, the euro slid back below 1.0650, while sterling gave up 1.2450 and the yen again gave up 154.50 and appears poised to break through 155. US treasury Secretary Yellen and the Finance Ministers of Japan and Korea met to discuss the recent and sharp depreciation of the yen and the won, offering a joint statement acknowledging the US would not stand in the way of any official currency intervention. Upon release of the statement the yen tracked higher, but Treasury yields carried the day and the USD recovered losses and is back near 154.70 on open this morning. Our attentions turn now to Japanese CPI data and UK retail sales data as the only tier one data headlining an otherwise quiet macroeconomic calendar. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6380 - 0.6500 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9250 - 1.9500 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0820 - 1.0920 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.8900 ▼

Forex Today: Stocks Tumble – Sell in May and Go Away?

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:27 am

Stocks Make Deepest Pullback in Months; Precious Metals Remain Strong; Dollar Weakens After G7 Statement; Several Trends May Be Reversing

Bitcoin Halving: Will it Trigger a Market Frenzy?

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:41 am

Bitcoin is all over the news, as “Bitcoin halving” is expected to occur on Friday, April 19. What is Bitcoin halving and how will it affect the price of Bitcoin?

Forex Today: US Yields Rise on Powell Cut Delay Signal

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:00 am

Fed Chair Powell Says Inflation Falling Too Slowly; Israel Hints at Soft Retaliation, Crude Oil Weaker; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.79; UK CPI Higher Than Expected; Bitcoin Close to Halving

Forex Today: Stock Markets See Strong Selling

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:10 pm

Global Stock Markets Firmly Lower; Israel Signals Retaliation Likely Soon; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.44; Energies, Precious Metals Firm; Markets Await Canadian CPI Data

Forex Today: Risk Sentiment Improves as Mideast Tension Lowers

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:51 am

Immediate Retaliation Against Iran Unlikely; USD/JPY Breaks Out to New 34-Year High Near ¥154; Market Await US Retail Sales Data

Forex Today: US Monthly CPI Unchanged, Triggers Hawkish Shift on Rate Cuts

Apr 10, 2024 | 23:28 pm

US CPI data released yesterday showed the annualized rate rising higher than expected to 3.5%.

US Inflation Higher Than Expected, Accelerates to 3.5%

Apr 10, 2024 | 09:37 am

US inflation for March rose 3.5% year-on-year. This was higher than expected and the US dollar is higher following the inflation release.

Forex Today: US CPI Expected to Show Slower Monthly Increase

Apr 9, 2024 | 23:43 pm

US CPI data will be released today, with the market expecting a slower pace of monthly increase.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,354

Apr 7, 2024 | 23:24 pm

Metals Rise Strongly to New Highs; USD/JPY Likely to Retest 34-Year High at ¥152; Crude Oil, Gasoline Futures Pull Back From Highs

Forex Today: Gold Beats $2,300

Apr 4, 2024 | 00:08 am

Spot Gold has continued to rise to new all-time high prices.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,288

Apr 2, 2024 | 22:27 pm

Precious Metals Rise Firmly to New Highs; Fed’s Daly Expects 3 Rate Cuts in 2024; USD/JPY Remains Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

German Inflation Eases to 3-Year Low

Apr 2, 2024 | 07:54 am

Germany’s CPI climbed 2.2% year-on-year in March, down from 2.7% in February and matching expectations. This is the lowest inflation rate since May 2021.

Forex Today: Yen Nears Record Low, Markets Await Possible BoJ Intervention

Apr 1, 2024 | 23:20 pm

USD/JPY Advances Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; US Dollar Stronger on Firm US Manufacturing Data; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

Forex Today: Gold Hits $2265 Per Ounce

Mar 31, 2024 | 23:13 pm

Gold Reaches Record High in Asian Session; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Strong Chinese Manufacturing Data; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

United States GDP Expanded in Fourth Quarter by 3.4%

Mar 28, 2024 | 07:44 am

US GDP rises 3.4%, Canada GDP rebounds; US dollar steady, while stock markets show little movement following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed’s Waller: No Rush to Cut Rates, Prospect of Hikes Remote

Mar 28, 2024 | 01:25 am

US Fed’s Waller Reiterates Ongoing Fed Message of Slow Path to Rate Cuts; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Cocoa Futures Make Another Record High Close; Gold Also Makes Record High Closing Price

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Hits 34-Year Low

Mar 27, 2024 | 00:13 am

USD/JPY Hits Record High Near ¥152, Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Cocoa Futures Surpass $10,000 to Hit All-Time High; Aussie CPI Unchanged

Forex Today: Cocoa Futures Break $9,000 for Record High

Mar 26, 2024 | 00:38 am

Cocoa Futures Gain 8% in a Day; US Stocks, Gold Remain Bullish; Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Bitcoin Rises Above $70k Despite Record Crypto Fund Outflows

United States Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates, Remains Cautious

Mar 21, 2024 | 04:26 am

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight time at its meeting on March 20. The US dollar fell against the major currencies following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed Says 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, Stocks, Gold Boom

Mar 21, 2024 | 00:07 am

Fed Gives Dovish Surprise by Forecasting 3 Cuts in 2024; Markets Await BoE, SNB; Gold, Stock Markets Reach Record Highs; Japanese Yen Regains Ground; Bitcoin Pares Losses; UK CPI Falls

Forex Today: Markets Await FOMC Meeting

Mar 20, 2024 | 00:06 am

FOMC Expected to Leave Rate at 5.50%; Japanese Yen Continues to Fall After BoJ; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await UK Inflation Data, New Zealand GDP

Forex Today: Bank of Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

Mar 19, 2024 | 00:26 am

BoJ Makes First Rate Hike Since 2007, Japanese Stocks Rally, Yen Weakens; RBA Leaves Rates at 4.35%; Cocoa Futures Slightly Lower After Record High Yesterday; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await Canadian Inflation Data

Forex Today: Markets Expecting First BoJ Rate Hike in 17 Years

Mar 18, 2024 | 00:19 am

90% Expect BoJ to Ditch Negative Rates Policy Tuesday, Japanese Stocks Rallying; Bitcoin Rising After Another Record High Thursday; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead With Dramatic Gains

Forex Today: Markets Await US PPI

Mar 14, 2024 | 00:24 am

US PPI Expected at 0.2%; Bitcoin Makes Another Record High Above $73,000; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead.

Forex Today: US Inflation Ticks Higher to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 23:29 pm

US CPI Rises Unexpectedly; S&P 500 Makes Record High Close; Bitcoin Makes All-Time High Above $73,000

US Inflation Rises Unexpectedly to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 07:02 am

The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.2% year-on-year in February, up from 3.1% in January and above the market estimate of 3.1%.

Forex Today: Markets Expecting Unchanged US Inflation Data

Mar 12, 2024 | 01:03 am

US CPI Seen at 3.1%; Bitcoin Hits New Record Below $73,000; Gold’s Bullish Momentum Starts to Pause

Forex Today: Gold, Bitcoin Looking Bullish Near Friday’s Record Highs

Mar 11, 2024 | 00:17 am

Gold, Bitcoin Advancing Again; Yen Higher on Japanese Rate Hike Bets and GDP Growth

ECB Maintains Interest Rates, Revises Lower Inflation Forecast

Mar 7, 2024 | 14:06 pm

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its deposit rate at a record high of 4.00% at today’s policy meeting. This decision was widely expected, and the Euro’s response has been muted.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record High Above $2161

Mar 6, 2024 | 23:41 pm

Gold Powers to New All-Time High; Powell Says Inflation Progress Not Assured; Japanese Rate Hike Seen Likely as Wages Rise; Bank of Canada Holds Rates; Markets Await ECB Meeting

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